Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens emerged victorious from their Game One matchup versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, on the back of a hat-trick effort by forward Juraj Slafkovsky.
It’s impossible to ignore the fact that all three of his goals came on the powerplay, a situation that will be rather difficult to replicate going forward.
Canadiens vs. Lightning At 5v5
The Lightning have an excellent penalty kill, having shut down 82.6% of their opponents’ man advantages during the regular season, the third-best in the NHL.
With that in mind, it’s important to evaluate how the teams performed at 5v5 to better understand how the series will unfold. While special teams will play a crucial role in some games, hockey is mostly played at even strength.
In that vein, the Lightning controlled 54.8% of the shots (34-28) on Sunday night, which isn’t particularly surprising given that they tend to do a better job controlling shots than the Canadiens, however, when we filter the results further, it becomes clear the Habs were far and away the better in high-danger shots.
The Canadiens held an 8-1 advantage in high-danger shots at 5v5, a flat-out dominant share of one of the most critical statistical categories in hockey.
As we all know, not all shots are created equal. While the team that outshoots its opponents generally has a better chance of winning, that advantage is mitigated when the opponent does a better job generating high-quality shooting opportunities.
The Canadiens took many of their shots from the slot, while the Lightning were largely kept to the perimeter.
To put a fine point on their excellence in high-danger chances, Slafkovsky created three times as many high-quality shots as the entire Lightning lineup combined.
In an ideal world, you want your team to control both the quantity and the quality of shots. However, in a short series, focusing on quality alone can be enough to secure four wins.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
