Marc Dumont
We continue to discuss the upcoming NHL Playoff Series between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning, having already established which team will have the advantage at 5v5.
Statistically speaking, the Bolts are the better team at even-strength, and by a rather wide margin, too. And yet, once we filter the results to the four games between the Habs and Lightning, it’s the Canadiens that end up having the superior shot share.
With that in mind, let’s check out some of the special team statistics that will power the organizations in the playoffs.
Canadiens Vs. Lightning Powerplay
There are two ways of looking at this. The first includes simply repeating the powerplay efficiency of the respective teams, and declaring a winner. In that vein, with a 23.1% efficiency, the Canadiens are the better team with the man advantage compared to the Lightning (20.7%).
However, once we dig a little, it’s rather clear the Habs are using their excellent shooting skills to sustain their powerplay, which would be considered ‘at risk’ after completing an in-depth audit.
While the Canadiens have the 10th best powerplay in the league, and score the 10th most goals per 60 minutes of ice time with the man advantage, they’re among the worst clubs in the entire league when it comes to generating regular shots, as well as high-danger scoring chances.
The Lightning are worse than Habs in both goals and efficiency, though the discrepancy between their shots and goals isn’t as chasmic as what we’re seeing in Montreal.
This does present the Canadiens with a reality that must be addressed in the playoffs: they probably score more powerplay goals than they deserve to. On the flip side of the coin, it also suggests they can shore up their play with the man advantage by simply taking more shots.
Of course, this has been pointed out throughout the year, and very little has been done to rectify the worsening powerplay situation.
Canadiens Vs. Lightning Penalty Kill
The Canadiens are the better team on the powerplay, but the same cannot be said on the penalty kill. The Lightning kill more penalties, allow fewer regular and high-danger scoring chances, not to mention actual goals.
All things considered, one team is elite, while the other is struggling to emerge from the bottom-half of the league.
To make matters more interesting, Andrei Vasilevskiy had the third-highest save percentage on the penalty kill throughout the regular season (.900), while Jakub Dobes (.859) was ranked 26th. As for Jacob Fowler, he was only on the ice for 90 penalty kill minutes, finishing year season with an .873 save percentage in that situation.
Simply put, while we can debate how much of an advantage the Canadiens truly have on the powerplay, we probably shouldn’t waste much time debating which club will have the significant edge on the penalty kill.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics via Natural Stat Trick.
