NHL: Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens
Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

The Montreal Canadiens currently find themselves atop the Atlantic Division standings, not to mention tied for second overall in the NHL.

With just 12 games in the bank, a lot can change between now and the end of the season, however, the sample size is large enough to give us an idea of whether the team has improved sustainably.

Key Montreal Canadiens Improvements

We will use 5v5 statistics, starting with shot control, which is also known as Corsi For percentage (CF%).

Last season, the Montreal Canadiens only managed to control 47.5% of the shots, good for 28th in the NHL.

The team is currently controlling 48.2% of the shots, 24th in the NHL.

This is far from a significant improvement when we consider the top trio of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky controls almost 59% of shots when they’re on the ice, connoting that most of the heavy lifting has been done by one line.

Of course, we can’t simply erase the first line’s dominance from the numbers, but it does speak to the need for the rest of the lineup to start controlling the play whenever they’re called upon.

High-Danger Scoring Chances

Not all shots are created equally, which is why we will evaluate the team’s share of quality scoring chances (HDCF%).

It’s been the biggest red flag since head coach Martin St-Louis took over, as evidenced by the team finishing 29th in that respect last year, with just a 45.7% share of high-danger chances.

This year, they’re controlling slightly more quality chances, and currently have a 46.8% share at 5v5, 22nd overall in the NHL.

It’s not quite at the point where you could describe the issue as solved, but a one percent difference essentially pushed the Canadiens out of the basement of the NHL for quality scoring chances, which is fairly encouraging.

Canadiens Goals

Last season, the Habs only controlled 47% of the expected goals, 28th in the NHL.

This year, they’re hovering around the 49% range, 18th in the NHL.

Again, this is a result of the first line putting together some of the best numbers in the league, as evidenced by their 63.3% control of the expected goals.

While expected goals give us a good idea of what’s to come, actual goals paint a picture of what has happened. In that vein, we’ve seen one of the biggest improvement from the Canadiens.

They were 27th last year, with a 46.6% share of the goals scored at 5v5. This season, they’re 8th in the league, due to the fact that they’ve scored 52.2% of the goals.

Canadiens Goaltending

Believe it or not, the team’s overall save percentage has remained fairly stable. Canadiens netminders had a .905 save percentage last season, compared to .907 this year.

Interestingly, even if their save percentage barely changed, the team improved its standing compared to the rest of the league, going from 25th to 14th this season.

Digging a little deeper, we can see that the Canadiens have struggled to stop high-danger scoring chances, going from .809% last season (21st), to .763% this year (29th).

The issue is the significant discrepancy between Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault’s high-danger save percentage.

Montembeault has faced 27 high-danger chances, stopping just 16 of them, resulting in a .592 save percentage, the worst result in the league among all goaltenders who have made three or more starts.

Dobes, on the other hand, has stopped 29 of the 32 quality chances sent his way, good for a .906 save percentage, 7th overall in the league. He also currently first in the league in terms of regular save percentage at 5v5, with a sparkling .959%.

Canadiens Shooting Percentage

The final numbers we’ll discuss are linked to the team’s shooting percentage, which has risen from 9.5% (8th), to 11% (5th).

It’s not necessarily a bad thing, though it does suggest the team’s offence has been powered by their shooting talent since the start of the year.

The most notable improvement has taken place near the net, as the Habs have raised their high-danger shooting percentage from 15.8% (30th), to 20% (12th).

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Even though the Habs aren’t quite at the point where their results are aligning with the underlying numbers, it’s only fair to say they have improved almost every important statistical category.

There’s still much work to do, as they’re in the bottom half of the league for several of these statistics.

Does this mean they’ll suddenly collapse? Not necessarily, but there’s a clear-cut risk the team may get caught in a valley should the first line stop driving the offence on a nightly basis, or if Dobes stops playing like a modern-day Dominik Hasek.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.

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By Marc Dumont
Marc has been covering the Habs for over a decade. He previously worked for Journal Metro, The Athletic, The ... More about Marc Dumont

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