There is a tripleheader on Sunday’s NFL Wild Card Weekend schedule, with NBC’s Sunday Night Football featuring a matchup between two of the game’s best quarterbacks as the Los Angeles Chargers face the New England Patriots.
Los Angeles enters the NFL Playoffs with one of the league’s best defenses and an offense capable of being explosive thanks to Justin Herbert. However, it all can be derailed by an offensive line that is decimated by injuries. As for the Patriots, MVP candidate Drake Maye leads a club that largely faces questions about its legitimacy after dominating one of the easiest NFL schedules in the modern era.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into our predictions for the Chargers vs Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
New England Patriots Record 3+ Sacks
Getting to the quarterback hasn’t exactly been a strength for New England this season. It finished the regular season ranked 20th in sack rate (6.2%), 24th in pressure rate (20.3%) and 20th in ESPN pass-rush win rate (35%). However, there’s a fantastic opportunity here for the Patriots defense against Los Angeles on Sunday Night Football.
The Chargers ended the regular season ranked last in ESPN pass-block win rate (54%) and Herbert averaged four sacks per game in the final eight weeks of the regular season. New England did record four-plus sacks in 23.5% of its games this season, but three of those four performances came before Week 8. Given the state of the Chargers offensive line, New England should be able to take Herbert down at least three times.
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Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson Finish Under 80 Yards
Amid an MVP-caliber season from Maye, the Patriots’ ground game has flown under the radar a bit. From Weeks 7-18, New England averaged 149.3 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game with a 4.9 yards-per-carry average and it ranked ninth in Rush EPA (0.018) over that stretch. One key during that 11-game stretch has been explosive runs.
Those might not be there in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles ended the regular season on a 10-game stretch where it allowed just 92.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry, allowing the second-lowest Rush Success Rate (36.4%) and Rush EPA (-0.216). The only team better at stopping the run from Weeks 8-18? The Baltimore Ravens, who allowed just 79 rushing yards on 23 carries (3.4 ypc) to New England on Dec. 21. With the Chargers’ ability to fly to the football and wrap up, we expect Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to combine for less than 80 rushing yards.
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Kayshon Boutte Torches the Chargers Downfield
One way Drake Maye will look to exploit this Chargers defense is on throws downfield. Los Angeles has had some issues with deep passes, recently getting burned by the likes of George Pickens, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Tyquan Thornton, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Coming off a regular season where he had the third-highest completion rate (54.8%), the highest passer rating (132.7) and the most passing touchdowns (nine) on throws 20-plus yards downfield, Maye can absolutely exploit this.
Kayshon Boutte will be the beneficiary. He led all Patriots receivers in downfield targets (14) and finished with 266 receiving yards and five touchdowns on downfield throws. He’s going to get vertical on Los Angeles a few times on Sunday Night Football and Maye will connect with him at least once. If they can strike for multiple explosive plays downfield, that could decide this game.
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Justin Herbert Puts up 300 Total Yards, 2 TDs
If the Chargers offense faced a dominant defensive line, it would be easy to pick them to get knocked out in the Wild Card Round. However, there are a few issues for New England. As previously mentioned, the Patriots have some of the lowest pressure and sack rate numbers among playoff teams. It’s also not a foregone conclusion that Harold Landry III (knee) and Khyiri Tonga play in this game.
That could prove problematic for Mike Vrabel. Herbert finished the season with the fourth-highest completion rate (76.6%) from a clean pocket with a 104.6 passer rating. If New England can’t consistently generate pressure on him, Herbert will cause real problems through the air. We think Herbert will have enough opportunities both to throw and make a few plays with his legs that he eclipses 300 total yards with two touchdowns. On the other side of the coin, though, he did throw the fifth-most interceptions (six) when pressured this season.
Related: NFL Wild Card Predictions, including Chargers vs Patriots Winner
