The stage is set for NFL Wild Card Round, a three-day slate of six marquee matchups that will determine who advances to the Divisional Round. While there’s typically an upset each year on Wild Card Weekend, this time of year is generally when we see the best NFL teams demonstrate their excellence with convincing victories.
Let’s dive straight into our NFL Wild Card Round predictions. We’ve ordered them based on the Wild Card Weekend schedule that kicks off on Saturday,
Los Angeles Rams 31, Carolina Panthers 21
Saturday’s NFL Wild Card Weekend games are all about regular-season rematches. Back on Nov. 30, the Carolina Panthers surprised the football world in a 31-28 victory at home over the Los Angeles Rams. Bryce Young was effective (15-for-20, 206 passing yards, 3-0 TD-INT and 147.1 QB rating) and Carolina’s defense generated 3 takeaways, including a pick-six. However, there’s a reason Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite on the road in this matchup.
For one thing, going back to that Week 13 matchup, the Rams offense averaged 7.4 yards per play (5.8 for Carolina), 3.11 points per drive, and 42.1 yards per drive. Not only did Stafford throw a pick-six, but he was also intercepted in the end zone on 3rd-and-6 from the 8-yard line, and he later fumbled on the Rams’ final drive when they trailed 31-28 and had the football at the Panthers’ 22-yard line.
The Rams offense only had three games this season with multiple turnovers, so Carolina’s takeaways in the last meeting reflects a bit more luck. Unless the Panthers are able to replicate that good fortune on Wild Card Weekend, they simply lack the firepower on either side of the football to compete with Los Angeles.
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Chicago Bears 28, Green Bay Packers 17
If not for the injuries to Tucker Kraft, Elgton Jenkins, Devonte Wyatt and Micah Parsons, this would be the best matchup on Wild Card Weekend. In their two meetings during the regular season, both of which came down to the wire, the Green Bay Packers won the total yardage battle (721–715) and the Chicago Bears had the better turnover differential (+1).
We don’t think the third Packers vs. Bears game this season will be quite as close. That’s largely because of what Chicago’s offense should be able to do against Green Bay’s defense. In Weeks 16 and 17, the Packers allowed 228.5 rushing yards per game with a 5.8 yards-per-carry average. Equally concerning, this unit has no pass rush whatsoever.
This should be a game where Ben Johnson feeds the football to D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai 30-plus times and mixes in some play-action deep shots for Caleb Williams. Now, Green Bay can make it a game early with Jordan Love exploiting a Bears defense that allowed 27.3 PPG and 5.9 yards per play from Weeks 8-17. However, Love will also throw an interception in this game, and the inability of the Packers defense to generate a stop leads to Chicago winning by two scores at Soldier Field.
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Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Buffalo Bills 24
The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars met in the 2024 NFL season, a 47-10 thrashing that delivered a four-touchdown game from Josh Allen. More than a year later, Buffalo looks like a worse version of the team it was during its last playoff appearance while the Jaguars look like a franchise on the rise under Liam Coen.
Trevor Lawrence and Co. might not be as effective through the air in this one as they have been in recent weeks. Buffalo boasts one of the league’s best pass defenses this season, surrendering, ranking top six in completion rate allowed, average QB rating, yards per attempt and passing yards per game. What Coen can do, however, is exploit a unit that allowed seven opponents to rush for 160-plus yards this season.
We also expect the Bills offense to struggle in this one, even with Allen putting on the proverbial cape and going into Superman mode. From Weeks 11-17, Jacksonville’s defense held opponents to a 65.2 QB rating and 61.7 percent completion rate, allowing just 5 yards per pass attempt with nearly five times as many sacks recorded (19) as passing touchdowns allowed. We’re buying into the Jaguars’ hot streak.
Philadelphia Eagles 24, San Francisco 49ers 14
The San Francisco 49ers are in a slightly similar boat as the Packers, entering Wild Card Weekend with a defense that has been rocked by injuries. It’s a shame because the absences of Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams could really prevent this from being a phenomenal game. Then again, the Philadelphia Eagles defense might be the reason we don’t get a shootout.
Here’s the problem for San Francisco. In the final 10 weeks of the regular season, it allowed the highest Rushing Success Rate to opponents along with a 4.6 yards-per-carry average. That should be music to the ears of the Eagles, who can feed Saquon Barkley the football 25-plus times. When Philadelphia does drop back to pass, Jalen Hurts will largely be protected because the 49ers pass rush has been nonexistent this winter.
On the other side, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey could face the same issues they countered in Week 18 at home against Seattle. Philadelphia’s defense dominates in the trenches and it’s getting excellent play in the secondary. Really, the only path to victory for the 49ers would be Jalen Hurts and Co. laying an egg. It’s on the table, but we think Philadelphia’s defense paired with a strong run game carries the team to a victory.
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Los Angeles Chargers 24, New England Patriots 21
We needed to have an upset in our NFL Wild Card Round predictions. The New England Patriots roster doesn’t have much playoff experience, though maybe that’s better than the experience veteran starters on this Los Angeles Chargers roster have with collapsing in the postseason.
The reason for the upset pick is largely focused on New England’s pass rush. It ranked 20th in ESPN pass-rush win rate and placed 25th in pressure rate during the regular season. What’s critical to slowing down this Chargers offense is being able to take advantage of a disastrous offensive line. The Patriots should still have a fair amount of success with that, especially upon the return of Milton Williams, but inconsistency could be fatal versus Justin Herbert.
Los Angeles also boasts one of the most well-coached and disciplined defenses in the game. Jesse Minter’s group flies to the football and rarely misses tackles, which could really limit the Patriots’ ability to get yards after first contact. In a back-and-forth game, Herbert beats Drake Maye thanks in large part to the Chargers defense.
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Houston Texans 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 7
Aaron Rodgers looked good in the fourth quarter on Sunday Night Football, sending the Pittsburgh Steelers to the playoffs. It also helps that the offense will be getting back DK Metcalf for Wild Card Weekend, as the last two games showed how lifeless this passing game can be without him on the field. However, this is a bad draw for the Steelers.
Rodgers looks like a 42-year-old quarterback when pressured, and this Houston Texans defense is better than everyone else around the league at getting to the quarterback without blitzing. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. can have a field day going after Rodgers, forcing the Steelers quarterback to get the football out extremely quickly.
The one thing Pittsburgh has going for it in this matchup is its defensive line against the Texans offensive line. That is Houston’s biggest problem and it can derail drives for an entire half, as has happened countless times this year. With that said, we’re picking the team with the best quarterback and defense to win this game.
