The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup on ESPN between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s a clash between two teams that went in opposite directions during the second half of the season.
Houston had real problems to open the season, starting out 0-3 and eventually entered Week 10 with a 3-5 record. Thanks to C.J. Stroud and the league’s No. 1 defense, the Texans never lost again and roll into the Wild Card Round with the longest active winning streak (nine games) in the NFL. Meanwhile, thanks to a missed 44-yard field goal, the Steelers made the playoffs after going 6-6 in their final 12 games.
Let’s dive into our Texans vs Steelers predictions.
DK Metcalf Held Under 50 Receiving Yards
The Steelers offense without DK Metcalf isn’t that far off from the equivalent of watching paint dry. It’s great news that Aaron Rodgers gets his No. 1 receiver back for the Wild Card Round; this passing game desperately needs the spark. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, it’s hard to see Metcalf being that impactful considering this matchup against Houston’s lockdown defense.
During the regular season, Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. allowed the second-lowest passer rating (56.9) and second-lowest completion percentage (46.7%) among starting cornerbacks. If Metcalf lines up against Kamari Lassiter, that just means facing a corner who allowed a sub-60.0 passer rating for much of the season. Considering that Rodgers also will have very little time to throw, it’s going to be a quiet night for Metcalf.
Read More: 2026 NFL Power Rankings, Offseason Evals for Eliminated Teams and Ranking Playoff Contenders
Nico Collins Eclipses the 100-Yard Mark
The NFL Playoffs are when Nico Collins really shines. Across four postseason starts, the Texans wideout has averaged 16 yards per reception, 11.1 yards per target and 91.75 receiving yards per game with three contests of 80-plus receiving yards. On Monday Night Football, he’ll have a chance to continue that excellence against Pittsburgh’s secondary.
The Steelers just showed in Week 18 the lapses in coverage that can happen downfield, and C.J. Stroud loves throwing deep to Collins, as evidenced by his 19.7% target rate and 10 receptions on throws 20-plus yards downfield. Collins will beat Pittsburgh deep once for 30-plus yards and turn the rest of his targets into a 100-yard performance.
Read More: NFL Defense Rankings 2026, Ranking Defenses Entering Wild Card Weekend
Aaron Rodgers Delivers Brutal Playoff Performance
Aaron Rodgers looked great on Sunday Night Football against Baltimore, but that had a lot more to do with a defense that could rarely generate any pressure on him. That’s not going to be the case against Houston in the Wild Card Round on Monday Night Football.
The Texans were joined by the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams as the only teams with two edge rushers—Will Anderson Jr. (69 hurries) and Danielle Hunter (59 hurries)—who finished the season ranked top two in total quarterback hurries. Both stars also finished in the top 10 for sacks, with Hunter recording 15 and Anderson tallying 12. That will often leave Rodgers, who moves like a 41-year-old quarterback, with the choices of taking the sack, throwing it away or getting the football out almost immediately. That level of disruption will result in four-plus sacks taken, an interception and under 150 net passing yards.
Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers Combine for Under 30 Points
Prepare for a lot of punts and a few turnovers on Monday Night Football. Opponents averaged just 25.4 total yards (third in NFL) and 1.54 points per drive (second in NFL) against Houston during the regular season, with a 14.6% turnover rate (fourth) and a 27.6% scoring rate. On the other side, the Texans offensive line has been awful this year and the Steelers defense has allowed just 20.7 points per game in the last six weeks. If you love great defenses, this is the Wild Card Round matchup for you. There is a real chance this thing ends with a 13-7 final score and we doubt the two teams combine for 30-plus points.
Related: NFL Wild Card Predictions, including Texans vs Steelers Winner
