Andrew Buller-Russ
The Minnesota Vikings have a quarterback again. Or at least they think they do. Time will tell. Either way, whoever is throwing Justin Jefferson the ball in 2026 is expected to be better than his QB was in 2025. Even if it’s J.J. McCarthy again, that means the 2024 first-round pick has likely taken a big leap in his growth.
However, the expectation right now is that Jefferson will be catching passes from two-time Pro Bowler Kyler Murray rather than the erratic form we saw from McCarthy a year ago. Murray is certainly more accurate and consistent than what McCarthy showed a season ago. So, why is it that some still think Jefferson will have another down season in 2026?
Related: Minnesota Vikings Analyst Projects Kyler Murray Trade, Under One Condition
Murray’s Scrambling Tendency Could Hurt Jefferson’s Numbers
Some would say Jefferson already let his fantasy owners down a season ago while the Vikings turnstiled through different quarterbacks. After all, the four-time Pro Bowl receiver finished with a career-low 1,048 receiving yards and just two touchdowns. That’s criminal for one of the NFL’s best receivers.
Yet, the Vikings started three different QBs last year. Two of whom were making their NFL debuts.
This year, things are expected to be different, with Murray, a seven-year vet, taking over the offense in Minnesota. Yet, some think that could be a bad thing for Jefferson.
Recently, Heath Cummings of CBS Sports suggested that Jefferson could be a “fantasy football bust” in 2026.
“I am very hopeful that Kyler Murray wins the job and proves better than J.J. McCarthy. But I am concerned about drafting Kyler Murray’s WR1 in Round 1. Murray was miserable last year, averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and hasn’t posted a pass TD rate above 3.9% since 2021. His rushing, while good for the team, can be detrimental to the total number of targets available for pass catchers. Jefferson’s TPRR over the past two seasons has been about 24% when both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are on the field. That would have tied Emeka Egbuka for 23rd at WR last year. Jefferson is a good bet to bounce back, and a fine pick in the middle of Round 2, but he’ll be a disappointment if you draft him in Round 1.”
Heath Cummings on Justin Jefferson
Basically, the risk here is believing too much in Jefferson having a bounce-back season, and selecting him too high. If fantasy owners can land him in the right spot, he could be a perfect addition to any lineup.
Yet, as noted, there’s still some risk from week to week with a potential Murray/Jefferson combo. There will be some games where the Vikings’ QB makes more plays with his legs than his arm, which is when Jefferson’s fantasy numbers could suffer. Plus, it could take some time for their chemistry to get in full sync. Still, it’s hard to bet against one of the game’s greatest receivers, especially when paired with a bright playcaller like coach O’Connell.
Jefferson has never had fewer than 1,000 yards in any of his six seasons, not even when he was limited to just 10 games in 2023. So while some may think the ceiling isn’t as high, the floor isn’t very low either.
Related: 5 NFL Players Who Could Come Out of Retirement in 2026
