Andrew Buller-Russ
It’s safe to say the Denver Broncos haven’t gotten a strong return on the Russell Wilson trade. Not only did they part with two first-round picks, plus Noah Fant, Drew Lock, and Shelby Harris, they also sent two second-round selections, plus a fifth-round pick to Seattle in exchange for Wilson and a fourth-round pick. That’s a massive haul. One the Broncos still haven’t found a way to recover from.
But then they doubled down on their bold move by signing the then 33-year-old to a five-year, $242 million contract extension.
So far, Wilson has generated a 5-16 record in Denver, or a win-rate of just 23 percent. That’s far from the Super Bowl aspirations this franchise had.
But now many assume the Broncos are stuck with the soon-to-be 35-year-old former Super Bowl champion.
However, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio speculates on why that may not be true and how moving on from Wilson this offseason would actually cost the Broncos much less than if they were to continue paying the high-priced nine-time Pro Bowl QB.
As of now, Wilson’s contract states he’s set to receive a $37 million base salary in 2025. However, that amount is only guaranteed if an injury occurs. Yet, on the fifth day of the 2024 league year, the amount becomes fully guaranteed. The only way to avoid this payday would be by either cutting or trading Wilson before that becomes official.
Yet, either move would come with massive salary cap implications.
If the Broncos decided to cut Wilson later this offseason, designating him a post-June 1 release, Denver would only incur a $10M cap penalty in 2024. But that doesn’t also include the $17 million salary he’s fully guaranteed or the $22M option bonus.
Related: See where Russell Wilson lands on Sportsnaut’s NFL QB rankings
The Broncos could agree to pay his option bonus before releasing Wilson, but then they’d have an additional $8.4M dead cap charge, bringing the total to $18.4M in 2024. Yet, there’s still $17 million that he’d be due too.
This would mean the Broncos would face cap charges of $49.6 million in 2025 just to remove Wilson from the roster, plus a cap charge anywhere from $18.4M to $35.4M in 2024.
That’s potentially a total cap loss of $85 million over two years. For one player who isn’t even on the roster anymore.
No matter what, Wilson’s $39M salary is already fully guaranteed for 2024, and he holds a cap number of $35.4 million as well. In 2025, his cap charge runs up to $55.4 million, for a total of $90.4 million over two years. But if they hold onto Wilson through the fifth day of the 2024 league year, then he’s guaranteed another $37 million.
In other words, the Broncos would save more money by simply moving on from Wilson this offseason by $37 million while also realizing cap savings of $5.4 million on their 2024 budget.
Of course, contract restructures could make all these numbers change drastically, but that only kicks the payment can further down the road. Another potential solution involves Wilson taking a pay cut if he’s interested. But who wants to take less money?
Still, Florio speculates that it may make more long-term sense for the Broncos to cut their losses on the Wilson trade this offseason than to continue paying more cents to their struggling QB. Credit to PFT for the math. I did not do any arithmetic myself here.
Yet, just because it may make more financial sense for Denver to move on, that doesn’t mean this organization will be ready to admit such a big mistake just yet.
Related: Teams seeking improved pass protection could trade for Denver Broncos’ Garett Bolles
