At the beginning of each NFL season, experts like to predict who will be the “breakout” players.
Players who qualify as a “breakout” typically are younger players — in their first, second, or third seasons — who either show significant improvement over the previous season or become an unexpected contributor who has a profound effect on the team’s success.
It’s fun to look at the preseason “breakout” lists to see what actually came to fruition. Much of the time, the players who truly break out weren’t considered. And that’s often what makes them breakout performers.
Introducing the breakout players
Here are our top 10 breakout players in reverse order, with apologies along the way to a few candidates who narrowly fell short.
10. Jalen Carter, Eagles DT
Some media outlets had Carter listed as the top prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft, but his draft stock dropped due to his involvement in a fatal street racing incident and his poor conditioning for his pro day.
But the Eagles grabbed the Georgia product with the No. 9 pick and have watched him become one of the game’s dominant interior defenders, with five sacks and two forced fumbles. According to Pro Football Focus, he has 42 pressures and is the highest-graded player among the first-round draft picks.
9. Nico Collins, Texans WR
Collins’ teammate, rookie Tank Dell, could have easily made this list at the same spot or higher. But Dell suffered a broken fibula in Week 13 and was lost for the season. At the same time, Collins continued to produce as the primary target for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
The third-year pro out of Michigan is on pace to double the output from his previous two seasons, setting career highs in receptions (60), receiving yards (1,004) and touchdowns (6). Collins missed last week’s game against Tennessee, but he’s made enough of an impact in 12 games to merit a place among the top breakout players.
8. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Browns LB
The Browns’ defense, under the guidance of coordinator Jim Schwartz, has been the NFL’s best for the majority of the season, and much of their success can be attributed to the improved play of Owusu-Koramoah, who’s become one of the league’s most versatile defenders.
Schwartz uses him in variety of ways — whether he’s on the line, in the box, at safety, in the slot, or even outside as a corner — and he’s delivered big plays all over the field.
While he was injured for much of his first two seasons, Owusu-Koramoah has played every game in 2023 and leads the team tackles (84) and tackles for loss (18) to go with 3.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble, and four passes defended. He’s the sixth-highest graded pass rusher among linebackers in the league.
7. James Cook, Bills RB
Cook put on a show for the Bills in Week 15 with a career-best 176 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns, one through the air, in Buffalo’s dominant win over Dallas.
His 968 rushing yards are second to only the 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey. The second-year player out of Georgia will no doubt double his rushing total from a year ago (507), and he’s soon to become Buffalo’s first 1,000-yard rusher since LeSean McCoy in 2017.
But more importantly, Cook has become the featured back that Buffalo has needed to take the burden off quarterback Josh Allen to carry the offensive load with his feet and his arm. There were other running backs good enough to be included among the breakout players (like De’Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs, for instance), but none has had the impact of Cook over an entire season.
6. Puka Nacua, Rams WR
Talk about a player coming out of nowhere. Nucua, a fifth-round pick out of BYU this past April, quickly adapted to the Rams’ offense and started hauling in passes with regularity, beginning in Week 1.
After his first two NFL games, Nacua had 25 receptions, becoming Matthew Stafford’s favorite target with Cooper Kupp out with an injury.
Through Week 15, Nacua is solidly among the NFL leaders with 87 catches for 1,163 yards and four touchdowns.
5. Justin Madubuike, Ravens DT
No team has sacked the quarterback than the Baltimore Ravens, and no Raven has terrorized quarterbacks more than Madubuike.
The fourth-year player out of Texas A&M as been as big a force as any defensive tackle in the NFL, even one named Aaron Donald. Madubuike leads the Ravens — and all NFL defensive tackles — with 12 sacks, more than doubling his previous high of 5.5 a year ago.
He is also second in QB hits (30) to only the 49ers’ Nick Bosa (33). There’s only one defensive player listed higher among the breakout players, but not by much.
4. Sam LaPorta, Lions TE
LaPorta is the latest in a line of great tight ends out of Iowa (George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are a few others).
But LaPorta, a third-round pick of the Lions, has made them all proud during a fantastic rookie season. He is fourth among all tight ends in receptions (71), fourth in receiving yards (758) and first in touchdown receptions (9).
He is well within striking distance of the all-time touchdown record for rookie tight ends at 12, set by Mike Ditka in 1961. If you are on the cusp of a record-setting season, as LaPorta, it means you belong on a list of breakout players.
3. DaRon Bland, Cowboys CB
Again, record-setting seasons earn inclusion on this list. And Bland, a second-year player out of Fresno State, established a new NFL record with his sixth pick-six, a record he set in front of a national TV audience on Thanksgiving Day.
Sure, he intercepted five passes a year, but nobody could have predicted not only the league-leading eight picks, but a pick-six record as well.
Although he’s been torched in coverage a few times, once for three touchdowns by DK Metcalf, the overall his interceptions and big-play ability cannot be ignored, and that’s why he ranks so high on this list of breakout players.
2. Kyren Williams, Rams RB
Williams, a second-year player out of Notre Dame, has been a revelation for the Rams, and because of Williams, they are among the NFL’s most dangerous teams with the playoffs looming.
Williams has been the very definition of an impact player in the Rams’ offense, which has scored an average of 33 points over their past five games. He’s missed time due to injury, but still ranks fourth in rushing yards (953), and first in rushing yards per game (95.3), three yards ahead of Christian McCaffrey.
Williams, who has 11 total touchdowns, has helped make everyone better around him, including quarterback Matthew Stafford, and with Williams in the backfield, the Rams are rolling at the right.
1. C.J. Stroud, Texans QB
Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick last April, has been a franchise quarterback from the moment he took his first snap in Week 1.
The Ohio State product has lit up opposing defenses during one of the seasons for a rookie quarterback in NFL history. While a concussion will reportedly sideline him for a second game Sunday, Stroud has been on pace to set rookie records for most passing yards and most touchdown passes in a season.
He’s already established record for most passing yards in a game and most passing attempts to start a career without an interceptions. Stroud answered any doubters about how good he might be, and he’s more than earned the top spot on this list of breakout players.