NFL playoff scenarios, projected matchups, and odds after Sunday’s late Week 18 games

NFL
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jan 7, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws a pass during warmups prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL playoff scenarios are playing out Sunday as we head toward the finish line of the regular season.

Below is a rundown of the teams in each conference, ordered by their current seed, and their odds of making the playoffs, attaining the No. 1 seed (if applicable), and advancing to the Super Bowl. Scenarios that lead to either a playoff berth, a division title, or the No. 1 seed will be included.

Related: Super Bowl odds: Every team’s championship futures for 2023-24 NFL season

The only teams not included below are those that have been eliminated. Those teams are the following:

Here are the updated NFL playoff scenarios, projected matchups and odds following the early Week 18 games Sunday.

Note: The odds for making and winning the Super Bowl, along with the scenarios, come from PlayoffStatus.com. All other odds come from the NFL.

AFC

Current playoff matchups

BYE: Baltimore Ravens

Seeding

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC North title + No. 1 seed in AFC)

Make/win Super Bowl: 52% / 30%


2. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

Remaining NFL games: vs. Buffalo

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 10% / 5%

Week 18 scenarios:

The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed with:


3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC West title)

Make/win Super Bowl: 10% / 4%


4. Houston Texans (10-7)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC South title)

Make/win Super Bowl: 4% / 2%


5. Cleveland Browns (11-6)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 11% / 6%


6. Buffalo Bills (10-6)

Remaining NFL games: at Miami

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 5% / 2%

Week 18 scenarios:

The Bills clinch the AFC East title, and the No. 2 seed with:

The Bills clinch the No. 6 seed with:


7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 4% / 2%

Week 18 scenarios:

The Steelers clinch the No. 6 seed with:


NFC

Current playoff matchups

BYE: San Francisco 49ers

Seeding

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + NFC West title + No. 1 seed in NFC)

Make/win Super Bowl: 48% / 25%


2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + NFC East title)

Make/win Super Bowl: 15% / 7%


3. Detroit Lions (12-5)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched berth + NFC North title)

Make/win Super Bowl: 15% / 7%


4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + NFC South title)

Make/win Super Bowl: 3% / 1%


5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 12% / 6%


6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 4% / 2%


7. Green Bay Packers (9-8)

Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)

Make/win Super Bowl: 2% / 1%

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