The NFL playoff scenarios are playing out Sunday as we head toward the finish line of the regular season.
Below is a rundown of the teams in each conference, ordered by their current seed, and their odds of making the playoffs, attaining the No. 1 seed (if applicable), and advancing to the Super Bowl. Scenarios that lead to either a playoff berth, a division title, or the No. 1 seed will be included.
Related: Super Bowl odds: Every team’s championship futures for 2023-24 NFL season
The only teams not included below are those that have been eliminated. Those teams are the following:
- AFC: New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars
- NFC: Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints
Here are the updated NFL playoff scenarios, projected matchups and odds following the early Week 18 games Sunday.
Note: The odds for making and winning the Super Bowl, along with the scenarios, come from PlayoffStatus.com. All other odds come from the NFL.
AFC
Current playoff matchups
BYE: Baltimore Ravens
- No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 2 Miami Dolphins
- No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs
- No. 5 Cleveland Browns at No. 4 Houston Texans
Seeding
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC North title + No. 1 seed in AFC)
Make/win Super Bowl: 52% / 30%
2. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Remaining NFL games: vs. Buffalo
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)
Make/win Super Bowl: 10% / 5%
Week 18 scenarios:
The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed with:
- MIA win or tie vs. BUF
3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC West title)
Make/win Super Bowl: 10% / 4%
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched + AFC South title)
Make/win Super Bowl: 4% / 2%
5. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)
Make/win Super Bowl: 11% / 6%
6. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Remaining NFL games: at Miami
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)
Make/win Super Bowl: 5% / 2%
Week 18 scenarios:
The Bills clinch the AFC East title, and the No. 2 seed with:
- BUF win over MIA
The Bills clinch the No. 6 seed with:
- BUF tie with MIA
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Playoff odds: 100% (clinched)
Make/win Super Bowl: 4% / 2%
Week 18 scenarios:
The Steelers clinch the No. 6 seed with:
- BUF loss
NFC
Current playoff matchups
BYE: San Francisco 49ers
- No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
- No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 3 Detroit Lions
- No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers