With this season’s abundance of drama, entropy, and unpredictability, it’s almost over. When the playoffs arrive, we will see the greatest level of competition in decades, a razor-thin margin of difference between teams competing in both conferences. The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, and Denver Nuggets seem to be the front-runners, but the next tier, which includes almost every other playoff team, isn’t far behind.
With the NBA playoff less than two weeks away, we’ve collected the top storylines to watch as the postseason drive revs up. The league hasn’t been this wide-open since the 1970s. There are no super teams or current dynasties now that the Golden State Warriors are beginning to age out. This leaves the race wide open and the NBA Finals participants impossible to predict. But there are still questions to answer and issues to solve, jumps to be made, stars to emerge. So let’s break down what the countdown to the playoffs has in store.
Is home-court advantage bigger for Boston or Philadelphia?
Between the Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers, which team needs home-court advantage more in the second round? Both have rabid fan bases known to make their home arena two of the most challenging places to play on the road. The Eastern Conference finals will likely feature the Celtics or 76ers facing the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
The narratives around James Harden and Jaylen Brown’s impending free agency (Harden this summer, Brown inn2024) will intensify this post-season. Joel Embiid, this season’s most deserving MVP, is looking to have this deepest playoff run ever. In contrast, the Celtics are looking to return to the Finals, where they were dominated by last year’s champion Warriors. Both teams are legitimate title contenders, but home-court advantage could be the x-factor in advancing.
Fighting for the No. 5 seed in Eastern Conference
The fifth seed, currently held by the New York Knicks, is up for grabs after they have dropped three in a row. The Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets are close behind, both just two games behind the Knicks. Of the top four teams, the No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers look the most vulnerable. This makes the three-way race for the fifth-seed crucial for underdogs seeking a first-round upset.
The Cavs lack a true superstar, have a weak bench, and have a coach in J.B. Bickerstaff with zero playoff series experience. With the Cavs over-depending on a perfect Donovan Mitchell series to win, you can bet the last handful of games will be brutal competition. A Knicks vs. Cavs matchup presents the juiciest storylines, with Mitchell the No. 1 trade target for the Knicks last summer. Ratings-wise, this is the best bet. That the Knicks are currently sitting fifth, it would take a significant collapse over the next two weeks for this to change. That would be a horrible way to end the franchise’s best season in over a decade.
What’s the status of LeBron James and Kevin Durant?
The Los Angeles Lakers recently announced LeBron James had resumed “on-court activity” and has begun a “gradual basketball movement progression,” marking the first evidence of a potential return since he went down on Feb. 26 with a right foot tendon injury. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported over the weekend that Kevin Durant is progressing toward a return Wednesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He has been out for almost two weeks dealing with a sprained ankle suffered in pre-game warmups.
Both the Suns and Lakers are dealing with major roster overhauls and could use a handful of games of practice fully healthy to build cohesion. James and Durant are two of the best plug-and-play superstars in NBA history, so integration shouldn’t be difficult. But it is still necessary to prepare for a brutal Western Conference playoff gauntlet.
With Durant, the Suns are the odds-on favorite to win the West, but James makes the revamped Lakers the most complete roster he’s had since winning it all in “The Bubble” season. Both teams need their centerpiece to be at least 80% when game one starts.
Should the Sacramento Kings be on Upset Alert?
The last time the Kings were in the playoffs was in 2006. The NBA has evolved tremendously since then. No other team has suffered a longer post-season drought than Sacramento. That team averaged 98.9 points per game, while this year’s version averages 121.1 ppg. As good as those mid-2000s Kings teams were, not averaging over 100 PPG would get them smacked on the regular in today’s game. That’s not to say there aren’t similarities. Both utilize a pick-and-roll game with clutch point guards (Mike Bibby and De’Aaron Fox) and elite- passing big men with deft touch (Brad Miller and Domantas Sabonis).
But the 2022-23 Kings remain 26th in defensive rating, which could be a serious issue in the playoffs. The plan of outscoring the opponent in a seven-game series has never worked. You must be at least a top-10 defensive-rated team to advance to the Finals.
The Kings currently sit third in the West. Guess who will be their current first-round opponent, sitting in sixth? The Warriors, last year’s champs and Kings coach Mike Brown’s former team. The Warriors are also a team prime to upend a younger, less experienced opponent. To answer the prompt: Yes, the Kings can be beaten.
Will Memphis Grizzlies advance past second round of NBA playoffs?
The Grizzlies aren’t as vulnerable as the Kings, but it’s not definite they will make it past the second round. They’re more playoff-tested, have the better roster, and have a true superstar in Ja Morant. Speaking of Morant, he appears fresh and clear-minded, coming off his suspension for showing off a gun on his social media.
With a focused Morant, the Grizzlies could be the hardest out in the West, especially considering the conference has never looked more wide open. Morant gives the Grizzlies the best point-of-attack of any lead guard save Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. But unlike SGA, Morant is surrounded by tough-as-nails wings and bigs comprising the league’s third-best defensive and fourth-best net ratings. Even though Steven Adams could miss the first round with a knee sprain, Memphis is still an offensive and defensive juggernaut. They will need Morant to be the best version of himself to maintain their contender status.
Can the Warriors win on the road?
Of the teams with the four worst road records in the NBA, three are at the bottom of the standings. The fourth team is the defending champion Warriors.
It’s shocking that the team who won it all last season in dominating fashion can’t seem to get it together away from home. They are 9-29 on the road and sit sixth in the West. It’s likely Golden State will not have home-court advantage in the first round, giving the team a major disadvantage right off the bat.
It seems obvious to point to Draymond Green and Jordan Poole’s pre-season fight as a reason for the Warriors’ disjointed unity on the road. This season has also seen injuries to Steph Curry and Green, extended absences to Andrew Wiggins, and roster changes with James Wiseman going out and Gary Payton II returning to the team. With the Warriors core able to tout four championships together, it’s not impossible they can turn it around. But it’s beyond ironic that if they were to return to the Finals, they could tie or surpass their regular season road wins.
Lee Escobedo covers the NBA for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @_leeescobedo