We’ve all heard the contentious conversation around the NBA MVP race this season. By most media accounts, Nikola Jokić is the current front-runner for his third straight MVP award. And he certainly deserves top recognition. But there’s only one player who deserves it more — Joel Embiid.
For the past two years, Embiid has finished behind Denver’s Jokić in the NBA MVP race. This season for the Philadelphia 76ers (the second seed with the second-best overall record), Embiid is posting Shaquille O’Neal-like numbers: 33.5 points per game on 54.6 percent shooting, 10.2 rebounds per game, 4.2 assists per game, 1.1 steals per game, and 1.7 blocks per game. In addition, he’s posting a career-high defensive rating of 108.6 and highs in FG percent (54.1), 2P percent (57.4), eFG% (.567), steals, and points.
Jokić is having a hell of a season, averaging a triple-double (24.7 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 10 apg). But Embiid is playing at a level of offensive and defensive dominance no other player can claim. Embiid also leads Jokić in clutch points scored per game (3.7 to 3.6), tied in player impact estimate (21.1), and currently leads Vegas odds for the MVP. Wednesday night on the road against the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, he had 36 points on 12-for-19 shooting, 18 rebounds, four blocks, and 10-10 from the line. He followed that up two nights later against Charlotte with 38 points on 16-for-21 shooting, 13 rebounds, four blocks, and five assists. He has led the 76ers to eight straight wins. The Nuggets have lost five of their past seven. As a result, Jokić has fallen to +160. On March 8, Embiid’s MVP odds were at +550. After Wednesday’s monster game, he jumped to -110.
By recording his 25th 35-point game this season, he solidified the most 35-point games in a
season by a center since Moses Malone’s 25 in 1981-82, when Malone won MVP. The next
highest was O’Neal in 2000 when he also won MVP. See a pattern? If he were to win, Embiid
would be the first Sixers MVP in over two decades since Allen Iverson won in 2001. In Embiid’s
last 15 games, where the 76ers went 12-3, he scored:
- 31 points (Indiana Pacers)
- 38 points (Hornets)
- 36 points (Cavaliers)
- 34 points (Washington Wizards)
- 39 points (Portland Trail Blazers)
- 39 points (Minnesota Timberwolves)
- 42 points (Pacers)
- 31 points (Milwaukee Bucks)
- 35 points (Dallas Mavericks)
- 27 points (Miami Heat)
- 41 points (Boston Celtics)
- 27 points (Memphis Grizzlies)
- 29 points (Cavaliers)
- 23 points (Houston Rockets)
- 37 points (Brooklyn Nets)
Those look like MVP numbers to me. Embiid is the most physically dominant post-player since Shaq and has made getting to the line an essential part of his game this season, as refs have had a more challenging time officiating his combination of size, speed, and power. He’s second in the NBA in made field goals per game at 11.2 but has a higher eFG% than first-place Giannis Antetokounmpo. Despite going to the line with less frequency than Antetokounmpo, Embiid makes 86 percent of his FTs, compared to 65 percent for Antetokounmpo.
Joel Embiid’s March Madness in NBA MVP race
As the NBA MVP race has heated up in March, Embiid is posting averages of 36.1 ppg on 62.7 percent shooting, which includes 45.8 percent from the 3-point line. Wow. Neither Embiid or Jokić have an All-Star teammate this season (although Harden was a perennially one up until this year), and both are unlikely to have any teammates recognized in the All-NBA or All-Defense teams. However, Embiid is set to make the cut for all three teams, with All-Defense being the only team Jokić doesn’t have a shot at this season and has never made in his seven-year career.
Unlike with Jokić in Denver, the offense and defense start with Embiid in Philly. The 76ers are Top 10 in defensive (8th) and offensive (3rd) net ratings. Philly is fourth in overall net rating, while the Nuggets are sixth, falling to 18th in defensive rating. Embiid is an anchor on both ends of the floor and impacts the game with his sheer physicality and rare combination of finesse and force. This looks to be the year both Philly and Denver have a shot at the title, as both superstars have carried their respective teams to pole position within their conferences.
There’s no argument in terms of race or international origin that makes sense to negate Jokić’s MVP candidacy. He’s one of the most talented bigs of all-time. That being said, both he and Embiid need to have the best playoff results in their respective careers. Neither has made it to the NBA Finals, and one, if not both, must reach it in a more-even-than-ever NBA.
This year, the award should go to the most dominant player on both sides of the court. One who is unstoppable thanks to a deep bag of post moves, lethal midrange jumpers, and a dependable three-ball.
Joel Embiid, this year’s MVP.
Lee Escobedo covers the NBA for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @_leeescobedo