Matt Weaver
It’s true of every week in the playoffs, of course, but stage points on Sunday afternoon at Talladega Superspeedway will be extremely crucial for everyone still in the running for the NASCAR Cup Series championship.
Everyone knows the Big One is coming and the goal is to score as many points as possible before it happens to you.
The Big One, for those only broadly familiar with NASCAR vernacular, is the massive multicar crashes that primarily take place at Talladega and Daytona Superspeedway — a byproduct of the pack racing produced by these tracks.
The problem with trying to score all your stage points before the Big One transpires is that drivers then become at risk of causing the melee they were hoping to get ahead of.
Anyway, the big crash is statistically more likely to occur near the end of the race so that’s why the championship contenders will want to score as many as possible at the first and second stage breaks before que sera, sera.
That’s the approach for Denny Hamlin, who at 37 points above the playoff cutline has the best margin of error but could still use some more points with the unpredictable Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL next weekend.
“Certainly, how the stage ends with how many points we get and how many points the competition gets, that will dictate our strategy the rest of the day,” Hamlin said.
This is the same Hamlin, who by the way, said he has considered just racing where everyone behind him in points is racing under the concept that if he crashes, they’re all crashing with him, and Tyler Reddick sees the appeal.
“It’s a really good point,” Reddick said.
Reddick also isn’t sure that will be the plan.
“I think, it seems like the wrecks come from the lead cars but if you wait for the wrecks all day, then you’re giving up the chance to race for stage points all day,” Reddick said.
To that point, Ross Chastain isn’t counting points either.
“Not really, we just go race, that’s what we do,” Chastain said. “They give out the same amount of points in every stage and every race in every one of these rounds. If we finish the race and run up front we get more points, if not, we know we get less.
“We just go race and that’s what’s so great about what our sport offers right now and what these playoffs offer. They give us a chance after three races they give you a chance and then after three races if you make it, they give you another chance and no matter how it went, as long as you beat four guys. We’ll go see how many points we can scrap up.”
Current playoff grid
William Byron Win, Adv
Denny Hamlin +37
Chris Buescher +22
Christopher Bell +20
Martin Truex +19
Ross Chastain +12
Brad Keselowski +8
Kyle Larson +2
—
Bubba Wallace -2
Tyler Reddick -3
Ryan Blaney -11
Kyle Busch -17
There is another factor that plays into this decision as well and that’s the state of superspeedway racing during the NextGen era as these cars have just proven incredibly difficult to pass with. That point was illustrated by Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner.
“It’s more of a crap shoot now than it used to be with this car,” Hamlin said. “The guys like Tony Stewart and Dale Jr. who were so good at these track would have a hard time showing their talents with this car simply because there’s no moving three or four-wide.
“We’ve seen the Dale Sr. 18th to first 1,800 times and that will never happen now because the whole field has gotten smarter in that we all have learned that the smartest thing to do is just stay single-file. Back then, when we had less draggy of a car, we could bounce around from line to line and really show off your skillset and it’s more of a crapshoot now.”
Kyle Busch says the key to both contending for the win and stage points is clawing and fighting for track position and doing the best you can to not give it up.
“With these cars and the way these races play out, it’s so hard to make moves, make passes and get yourself track position whenever you want it,” Busch said. “You can’t, so you’ve got to hold it when you’ve got it. If you don’t have it, then you have to figure out how to fuel save and short-pit guys and jump them on pit road. So, there’s so many variables – you just have to race it out and don’t worry about it. What happens, happens.”
There it is again.
Whatever happens, happens.
Que cera, cera
So yes, there is a risk versus reward associated with aggressively chasing playoff points, but deciding to lag back and try avoid the carnage may very well result in the fewest number of points scored anyway.
Almirola on pole
Meanwhile, Aric Almirola will lead the field to green in what is increasingly feeling like his final NASCAR Cup Series season, an important distinction because this is one of his best tracks.
That’s true even if they are already out of the championship hunt.
“I knew coming here we were going to have an opportunity to qualify well and this would be a great opportunity for us to win a race, so proud of everybody at Stewart-Haas Racing for continuing to fight and work their tails off to bring fast race cars to the racetrack,” Almirola said. “It would be so easy at this point in the season with where we’re at to just bring a car to the track and check the box, but that’s not who we are.”
Last month at Daytona, Almirola said he knows what he’s doing as it pertains to next year and that general narrative continued today when asked about it.
“I don’t have a decision or at least not one that I can tell you,” Almirola said. “I think, for me, I’m just enjoying it.”
Almirola had announced before last year’s Daytona 500 that 2022 would be his final season but he reversed course in the summer and decided to come back in 2023. He is winless this season and did not qualify for the playoffs so were there any regrets in that decision?
“Performance-wise on the racetrack, no, it hasn’t been the year that I hoped for when I signed up to come back,” Almirola said. “That’s no secret, but I have met a handful of people that have really impacted my life this year that I would have never met had I not decided to come back.
“My family and I have gotten to experience some really, really amazing things this year and I think personally I feel like the Good Lord led me to have this opportunity and it was very apparent that the door was wide open and all I had to do was step through, and so as I sit here today I’m wrestling with that same thing.”
Is that present or past tense? Regardless, Almirola says he isn’t getting too wrapped up on these things and hasn’t the past two years for that matter. He just tries to enjoy the experience and continue to make meaningful memories.
“For me, I’ve kind of sort of put my career on the altar because for most of my career I held on so tightly,” Almirola said. “I was like, ‘Man, I just need one more contract or next year’s contract,’ and this year I’ve just been so free with it and held it so loosely.
“It’s been mind-blowing the conversations that I’ve had in the last three to four months and just all the things that are happening and going on around me, so it’s been humbling and I just continue to pray through it and talk with my wife, talk with my kids and we’ll see.”
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.
