The 2026 NASCAR season kicks off this weekend at Daytona International Speedway. From the Truck Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series to the must-see Daytona 500 on Sunday, this is what racing fans have been waiting for. With the regular season set to begin, we’re making one final set of predictions for this year.
Let’s dive into our final NASCAR predictions for 2026, focusing on some of the same awards and categories done by The Athletic‘s experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
Breakout Driver: Carson Hocevar
We do think Carson Hocevar will be among the first-time winners in 2026, but we’ve put another driver in that category for our NASCAR predictions. Instead, Hocevar gets chosen as the driver who will break through this season and prove he’s one of the future stars in stock car racing. Hocevar showed late last season that he can dial back the aggressiveness to a smarter level; that comes with experience. What’s undeniable is the natural talent he boasts behind the wheel, and Spire Motorsports has given him the speed he needs in the No. 77 car to win on ovals. In 2026, we think Hocevar wins his first Cup Series race, triples his top-5s (six) from last season, and leads over 350 laps during the season.
Related: Spire Motorsports to Go ‘Big-Game Hunting’ in NASCAR Silly Season
Biggest Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
Historically, NASCAR Cup Series drivers have seen their performances fall off in their 40s. Brad Keselowski, entering his age-42 season, is also coming off a broken leg that could have some effect on him behind the wheel early on. Just a season ago, he finished 20th in points with an average finish of 18.5, recording 222 laps led, 13 top-10s, and six top-5s, but he failed to record a win. We believe that in 2026, Keselowski will finish a distant third within RFK Racing—well behind teammates Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece—recording half as many top-5s as he did a season ago.
Related: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026, 10 Best Drivers Entering the Daytona 500
First-Time Winner: Connor Zilisch
If the playoff format hadn’t changed this offseason, we’d have Connor Zilisch making the Cup Series playoffs in 2026. Instead, the teenager will just have to settle for his first Cup Series win. We do expect him to have more success on ovals than Shane van Gisbergen did in his rookie season, but SVG had the benefit of 2025 delivering six road-course races. Zilisch won’t have as many opportunities to win on his best tracks as a rookie Cup driver, but we do think he’ll make his way to victory lane with a win at Watkins Glen or Sonoma.
Read More: NASCAR Hot Seat 2026, Five Cup Series Drivers on the Hot Seat
Surprise Driver: Chris Buescher
There are certainly a few directions we could’ve gone with this pick for 2026. Projecting someone like Ryan Preece to make the postseason as a top-14 seed or SVG to be one of the most improved drivers were under consideration. We’re going another route. Coming off a season where he missed the playoffs, we think Chris Buescher will record multiple wins in 2026 for the first time since 2023, and he’ll beat his previous career highs for top-5s (nine) and laps led (255). He’s going to be in the mix late in the 10-race Chase, finishing the season ranked sixth in points or better.
Read More: NASCAR Schedule 2026
Driver of the Year: Kyle Larson
Things seemed to spiral a bit for Kyle Larson after his failed attempt at “The Double” this past season, but he still won the Cup Series championship and set a career best in top-10s (22) while tying his mark for top-5s (15). Now that he’s moved on from The Double, we think we’ll see the absolute best out of the Elk Grove native in 2026. He’ll record five wins this season, including the Chase, clearing 1,500-plus laps led for the second time in his Cup Series career and taking home Driver of the Year honors.
Cup Series Champion: Christopher Bell
We’ve already predicted Christopher Bell to win the Daytona 500, so this would mean that he wins the first and last races of the season. Bell has already been to the Championship 4 three times, and this new Chase format works strongly in his favor. While he won’t win the regular-season title and bonus points, which will go to Kyle Larson, Bell will outscore Larson, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Blaney in the points standings to become the NASCAR Cup Series champion in 2026 at Homestead-Miami.
Related: NASCAR Predictions 2026, Projecting 16 Playoff Drivers
