It’s officially NASCAR season, with the 68th running of the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway marking the first points race of the year. The Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing is the perfect way to lead into what we believe will be one of the best seasons in NASCAR in the last five-plus years.
As we did for races last season, we’re making a few picks for what we think will happen on the track. From stage winners, surprising results and who makes it to victory lane, we’ll take our swing almost every week. Let’s dive into our Daytona 500 predictions.
Denny Hamlin Finishes Outside the Top 15
Denny Hamlin is one of the best NASCAR drivers ever and a future Hall of Famer with three career Daytona 500 wins. Coming off a season where he finished with the fourth-most top fives (14), he seems like a safe bet to perform well on Sunday. However, we see a few reasons to be pessimistic. First, he’s now 45 years old and will be driving with an aggravated shoulder injury that can limit his sim time and will have some effect on him behind the wheel. Unfortunately, it’s not the only concern. The mental side of racing plays a huge role in having success and this is Hamlin’s first real race since his father’s tragic passing and his heartbreaking championship loss. With all of that, what he must deal with physically and his recent finishes at this track—26.4 average finishing position in the last eight races—we think Hamlin finishes outside the top 15 on Sunday.
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Kyle Busch Fails to Record a Top-10 Finish
Since joining Richard Childress Racing, the Daytona 500 hasn’t been particularly kind to Kyle Busch. From 2023 to 2025, the No. 8 car has been involved in more wrecks (two) than he has top-10 finishes (one). Even when you factor in the Coke Zero Sugar 400, Busch’s average finishing position (17.8) in the Next Gen era ranks behind the likes of Ty Gibbs, Erik Jones and Alex Bowman in an equal amount of races. Things just don’t seem to be working out for Busch with RCR, and we just don’t envision it getting any better on Sunday. Busch and Hamlin will both find themselves outside the top-10 finishers when the Daytona 500 wraps up.
Related: Daytona 500 Entry List
Alex Bowman Snags a Top-5 Finish
In a contract year as the fourth-best driver at Hendrick Motorsports, Alex Bowman is under a significant amount of pressure to perform in 2026. Fortunately for the driver of the No. 48 car, he gets to start off the season at one of his best tracks. Bowman boasts the fourth-best average finishing position (11.8) at Daytona since 2023 among full-time drivers, and Hendrick is going to excel this season at positioning its drivers to maximize their finishing position under the new Chase format. Bowman starts his contract year on a high note.
Read More: NASCAR Hot Seat 2026, Five Cup Series Drivers on the Hot Seat
Ryan Blaney Wins Stage 1 of the Daytona 500
Under the new playoff format, we could see some of the top teams put a bit more of an emphasis on stage results, as it could really prove a difference come time for the seeding in the 10-race Chase. We don’t think Team Penske will have a driver win the Daytona 500, but Ryan Blaney will deliver the first stage win of the season. Blaney led the third-most laps (23) in the 500 last season and he won Stage 2 after finishing third in Stage 1, where a late caution involving Denny Hamlin prevented a green-flag fight for the stage win. This year, he’ll get those 10 points in Stage 1.
Related: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026
Chris Buescher Takes Stage 2 at Daytona
After missing the playoffs in 2025, Chris Buescher will start off his season with a career-first. The driver of the No. 17 car has never won a stage at Daytona International Speedway, at best finishing third (twice) with RFK Racing. However, he’s consistently proven to be one of the most underrated drivers in racing and he does have the highest average finishing position (8.3) at Daytona among full-time drivers in the Next Gen car. Come Sunday, with RFK allowed to put just a bit more emphasis this season on points, Buescher is going to beat out the field to take Stage 2.
Related: NASCAR Predictions 2026, Projecting 16 Playoff Drivers
Christopher Bell Wins the Daytona 500
We’re going to have a first-time Daytona 500 winner on Sunday. A year ago, Bell was in a fight for the lead with five laps to go, and it appeared the NASCAR season would begin with a fight to the checkered flag. Instead, Cole Custer kept bumping into the No. 20, and the constant pushing eventually came at a cost. With five laps to go, after one too many times, Custer’s bumper got into Bell and the No. 20 car snapped, then sent him careening into the wall. Bell, who had the best average finishing position in the final 15 races in 2025 (9.3), will win the Daytona 500 for the first time in his career.
Related: NASCAR Schedule 2026
