Round 1 of the first-ever NASCAR In-Season Challenge delivered an upset special, with many of the top-seeded drivers eliminated at Atlanta. With the Cup Series race now headed for the Chicago Street Race, Round 2 of 16 teams should deliver a few more surprises on a road course.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR In-Season predictions for the Round of 16 at the Chicago Street Race.
(17) Brad Keselowski over (32) Ty Dillon
Brad Keselowski nearly won in Atlanta, and it was just the latest in a string of excellent performances by the No. 6 car. Over the last six races, Keselowski has recorded four top-10 finishes and is ranked top five in laps led (81). While Keselowski hasn’t been outstanding on road courses, averaging a 20.6 finishing position, according to DriverAverages.com, he’s been better than Ty Dillon. Keselowski almost certainly won’t win the race at Chicago, but he’ll advance to the third round by beating Dillon.
Related: NASCAR schedule for Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series
(8) Alex Bowman takes out (9) Bubba Wallace
It’s fitting that we’ve got an Alex Bowman vs. Bubba Wallace matchup in the second round, given their issue last season at the Chicago Street Race. Wallace used to be one of the worst drivers in the Cup Series on road courses, but he’s made real improvements over the last two years. However, Bowman is the reigning winner at the Chicago Street Race and has delivered six top-5 finishes and eight top-10s on road courses in his Cup Series career. The No. 48 car also has an average finishing position of 6.0 in the last three races. This should be a good battle, but Bowman advances.
Related: NASCAR standings for Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series
(5) Chase Elliott over (12) John Hunter Nemechek
Chase Elliott is coming off his first win of the season and just his second in the Cup Series over the last three years. However, the No. 9 car is responsible for five top-six finishes over the last seven races and that includes a third-place finish on Mexico City’s road course. On the other side, John Hunter Nemechek has been better lately (12.6 average finishing position in the last three races) and he placed sixth in Mexico City. Elliott is the superior driver, especially on road courses (9.8 average finishing position vs 24.0). Elliott advances easily.
(20) Erik Jones knocks off (29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr
When he isn’t getting taken out by Carson Hocevar, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is having a pretty good season with frequent top-20 finishes. Unfortunately for the No. 47 car, the Chicago Street Race is a suboptimal course for this second-round matchup. In 19 career Cup Series races on road courses, Stenhouse has just two top-10 finishes and finishes outside the top 20 nearly half the time. Erik Jones moves on to Round 3.
(15) Ryan Preece advances past (31) Noah Gragson
Noah Gragson advanced to the second round despite finishing 25th on Saturday night at Atlanta. It marked the fifth consecutive race that he placed outside the top 22 cars. He also heads to Chicago with a 22.2 average finishing position in 10 races, recording just four top-20 finishes. Ryan Preece, who has top-15 finishes in four consecutive weeks, isn’t a maestro on road courses by any means. He’s just the better driver overall and should move past Gragson with relative ease.
(26) Carson Hocevar upsets (23) Tyler Reddick
The numbers heading into the Chicago Street Race are in Tyler Reddick’s favor. He has the fourth-best average finishing position (11.1) on road courses with 13 top-10s in 19 races, including three victories. In comparison, Carson Hocevar has a 17.9 average finishing position with 1 top 10 in seven races. Despite that, the No. 45 car just hasn’t looked great as of late before Atlanta (fourth place). He was a non-factor in Mexico City and both the driver and his team just seem to be making costly mistakes every race. So, we’re going with the upset here as Hocevar advances.
(6) Ty Gibbs over (22) AJ Allmendinger
It’s really all starting to come together for Ty Gibbs as of late. He’s responsible for an average finishing position of 10.5 over the last four races. Quite frankly, that mark could be even higher if not for some poor strategy decisions by the team. It’s why Joe Gibbs Racing thrust Chris Gabehart into a race-strategy role for Gibbs starting at Atlanta. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the only driver who challenged Shane Van Gisbergen at the road course in Mexico City was Gibbs. While A.J. Allmendinger is very good on road courses, he doesn’t have a top-10 finish at Chicago. Gibbs’ hot streak continues.
(3) Chris Buescher beats (14) Zane Smith
This one is a relatively easy call to make. Chris Buescher boasts a stellar average finishing position (8.8) on road courses, recording four top fives and 15 top-10s in 19 races. He’s also recorded top-10 finishes in the last four weeks, compiling a 6.25 average finishing position over that span. A road course just gives Buescher another advantage over Zane Smith, allowing him to move past him easily to the next round.
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