Sportsnaut
A light Thursday slate with just four games limits the options for quality starts available, but there’s some upside in this small group and a sleeper or two worth a peek.
Ryan Weathers is one of the relative unknowns that bears watching this week after his strong performance in the spring. The Marlins’ right-hander flashed increased velocity and continued to rack up swinging strikes in his 2024 debut last week.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins (vs Cleveland Guardians)
He’s the ace Minnesota was lacking in past seasons and is being counted on even more after the Twins did not retain Sonny Gray. Lopez’s first season in Minnesota following the trade from Miami for NL batting champion Luis Arraez saw him reduce his four-seam fastball percentage from 38.9% to 34.5 thanks to mixing in a sweeper he threw 21.4% of the time. Lopez allowed an expected batting average of .222 on fastballs last season and an even better .176 mark on the sweeper. Lopez began 2024 nicely by allowing a run and four hits in seven innings last week in Kansas City. Perhaps the most notable aspect of his start was Kansas City going 0-for-8 on his four-seamer. Lopez produced mixed results while posting a 4.58 ERA in three starts against Cleveland last season. Cleveland’s offense ranked last with a 26.6% hard-hit rate last season and had two hard-hit balls in their last encounter with him on Sept. 4 when he scattered eight hits in six innings while throwing 34 four-seam fastballs resulting in an average exit velocity of 82.3%.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (vs Chicago White Sox)
Lugo posted a 7.15 ERA in four spring starts but was terrific against the defending AL champion Twins, whom he blanked over six innings Saturday while getting 12 swinging strikes. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of 27 starts since last season and the White Sox – whose already meager lineup is missing Eloy Jimenez – offer Lugo a chance to continue building early-season momentum.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (vs Minnesota Twins)
Bibee will face an improved offense after allowing six hits and five walks in four innings at Oakland for a disappointing season debut. Bibee gave up four hits on his four-seam fastball after allowing a .243 average and a .272 expected batting average as a rookie last season. The progress of Bibee’s slider is an area to watch as it was his second-most frequently used pitched in 2023 and hitters had a .206 average, a .193 average and it often set up his changeup, which was Bibee’s put away pitch 26.4 percent of the time. Bibee experienced mixed results in three starts against the Twins last season when he allowed a 4.20 ERA and the Twins produced a hard-hit rate of 46 percent against him on Sept. 5.
Martin Perez, Pittsburgh Pirates (vs Washington Nationals)
He’s viewed as one of those veteran types and a placeholder for a team with several young arms on the horizon. Perez was 12-8 for the 98-loss Texas Rangers in 2022 when opposing hitters barreled up 4.3 percent of batted balls. That figure rose to 7.6 percent last year and Perez’s ERA climbed from 2.89 to 4.45. At this point, he’s a three-pitch pitcher who mixed in his cutter, sinker and changeup in his season debut. Perez’s usage of a four-seam fastball has declined in recent years and his sinker usage has steadily increased in recent years, though his ground ball rate dropped from 51.9 percent in 2022 to 46.1 percent last season, resulting in a slight jump of his hard-hit percentage from 34.9 to 37.2. Perez allowed six hits in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut but also permitted a 62.5 hard-hit percentage and is facing a team whose 30.3% hard-hit rate was 28th last season.
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals (vs Pittsburgh Pirates)
He allowed the most homers in baseball two years ago when he gave up 38 in 148 2/3 innings and last season saw the number drop to 22 in 159 innings. Gray demonstrated some improvement with his four-seam fastball by allowing four homers on the pitch after giving up 24 on the same pitch in 2022. Despite improvement in keeping hitters from homering on his fastballs, Gray still allowed an expected batting average of .267 on the pitch, up from .260 in 2022. Gray did enough last year and in spring training to earn the Opening Day start and the Nationals are looking to see continued progress when he faces an improved Pirates offense after Pittsburgh averaged 4.27 runs per game last season. The Pirates added a few veteran bats a few veteran bats in Rowdy Tellez and Michael A. Taylor to join forces with Bryan Reynolds and supplement their young core of Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Henry Davis and hope it will improve a lineup, who was 25th in fly ball rate (36.2%) and also had a home run to fly ball rate of 11.1% that ranked 25th.
Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins (vs. St. Louis Cardinals)
Weathers emerged as an intriguing darkhorse after striking out 21 and walking just four in 18 spring innings before he gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. But Weathers got 11 swinging strikes – more than he recorded in all but one outing last year – against the Pirates while displaying career-best velocity on his four-seamer and sinker. He could be primed for fine results against the Cardinals, whose early-season returns have not been encouraging.
Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Miami Marlins)
Home runs are always the worry with Lynn, but chilly weather forecast to be in the high 40s could help him limit the longball. He’ll get to see two old friends from his time with the White Sox in third baseman Jake Burger and right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is a brutal 2-for-17 with one extra-base hite in his career against Lynn.
Lynn held the potent Dodgers scoreless over four innings in his season debut last Saturday, but his sinker velocity was down more than three mph. Returning home to Busch Stadium – where Lynn has a 2.85 ERA – against the less imposing Marlins offers some interesting streaming appeal, but the high-wire act against Los Angeles is a reminder Lynn is 36 and posted a career-high 5.73 ERA last season.
Michael Soroka, SP, Chicago White Sox (vs Kansas City Royals)
Soroka’s bid to restart his career got off to a rough start Saturday, when he failed to strike out a batter for just the second time in 44 big league starts and recorded only three swinging strikes against the Tigers. Soroka is only 27 and could still regain the form that allowed him to receive Cy Young votes as a rookie in 2019, but the potentially reborn Royals are a difficult matchup.
–Field Level Media
