The Toronto Blue Jays began Saturday with a three-game lead on the hard-charging New York Yankees atop the American League East Division. The Boston Red Sox are right there as well, 3.5 games back. But with Toronto playing at only a .500 clip over the last month, can they hang on to their perch at the top of the division?
Both the Yankees and the Red Sox have made up significant ground over the last 30 games as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has imploded. New York is 19-12 since then, while Boston is 19-11 during the same time.
So which team is the Blue Jays’ biggest threat as we head into September?
Yankees posing a serious threat to Blue Jays’ AL East lead
Let’s start with the Yanks. Currently riding a six-game win streak, their bats have come alive in a big way. The Bronx Bombers have more than lived up to their moniker, averaging 8.3 runs per game over this hot stretch. Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been the hottest bats, with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton ever-present.
If New York stays hot over the coming week, it sets up a massive three-game series with the Jays at Yankee Stadium next Friday. The balance of power in the AL East could swing by the end of next weekend.
What the Jays have going for them, however, is a 7-3 mark against New York this season. That includes a massive four-game sweep in Toronto over the Canada Day weekend. The Jays’ bats were firing on all cylinders in that series, getting into the Yankee pitchers’ heads to the tune of nine runs per game.
But things have changed for the pitching staff in Pinstripes since then. A 4.38 team ERA four weeks ago has now dropped to 3.94 and is an even better 3.82 over the last four weeks. Between that and the offensive barrage, the Yankees are now looking like a dangerous squad.
Big series still remaining for Jays vs. Red Sox
The Red Sox have been equally hot over the past month, and the Blue Jays have one critical three-game set remaining against them as well, in the penultimate series of the regular season, beginning Sept. 24 at Rogers Centre.
The Jays have dominated the BoSox this season, just as they have the Yankees, with a 7-3 mark against them.
The Red Sox pitching has been even more formidable than the Yankees in recent weeks, with an MLB-best 3.18 ERA over the last 30 days. On their recent eight-game road trip, the Sox staff was even better, with the starters compiling a 2.35 ERA, and the bullpen a 1.85 ERA. Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet has been setting the tone all season.
Aroldis Chapman is the most stable closer of the two Jays challengers, while Crochet is the most elite starter.
Yankees vs. Red Sox: Who should the Blue Jays fear more down the stretch?
The biggest difference here is that the BoSox hitting hasn’t been nearly as prolific as the Yankees’ over the last month, sitting 20th in the majors in OPS during that time. The Yankees combine a 7th-ranked pitching staff over that period, with a 4th-ranked offense. And the way they’re crushing home runs, it seems like New York presents a more balanced and intimidating combination all around right now.
Next weekend’s head-to-head battle in The Bronx could be the most important series of the regular season for the Blue Jays.
