A new report suggests it is very likely that New York Mets All-Star Pete Alonso will return to free agency this winter after seeing what Vladimir Guerrero just got from the Toronto Blue Jays in his new deal.
After a bumpy first couple of series to begin the 2025 season, the Mets have caught fire over the last week. Heading into their game on Wednesday against the Miami Marlins, they have won six straight. One player who deserves a lot of credit for their 8-3 start is first baseman Pete Alonso.
While some of his teammates have struggled to start the season, “the Polar Bear” has gotten off to a torrid pace. After 11 games, he has three home runs, 15 runs batted-in, and is hitting .333. He is making the organization very thankful they were able to ink him to a new two-year deal this offseason. However, the same drama that ensued to get him locked into a new contract could occur again after this season.
Alonso has an opt-out in his deal for next season. And after fellow first baseman Vladimir Guerrero got a massive 14-year, $500 million deal from the Blue Jays this week, The Athletic Mets insiders Will Sammon and Tim Britton fully expect Alonso to retest his value this offseason.
- Pete Alonso stats (2025): .333 AVG, .447 OBP, .692 SLG, 1.139 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 7 R
Pete Alonso a lock to opt-out of New York Mets deal this winter?
“Half a billion dollars, it’s a huge, huge amount,” Alonso said when asked about the Guerrero news this week. For him, it’s a fantastic deal. It’s great for the first-base market, I think. I mean, 14 years — he’s a stud.”
You can bet he and his agent, Scott Boras, were thrilled about that number after they struggled to maximize his value in a weak market this winter. However, if he continues to play like he is now and has another All-Star season, he will enter next year’s free-agent market as the undisputed best first baseman available. And maybe the top slugger.
While Sammon and Britton note he is not as good as Guerrero to make the same money, he could get pretty close.
“Guerrero couldn’t say he was a direct comparison for [Juan] Soto. But he could argue he was basically two-thirds as good — a guy who posts 5.5-win seasons compared to 8.0-win seasons,” Sammon and Britton wrote. “And he ended up with two-thirds of the contract. Alonso can’t put himself right next to Guerrero in production or age.
“Any deal he signs is going to be far shorter, of course. But he has accumulated about 90 percent of the wins above replacement that Guerrero has over the past three seasons, and he can make that case stronger with a better season in 2025 than he’s had in the last two.”
- Pete Alonso contract: Two years, $54 million
Mets may have to pay $32 million or more to keep Pete Alonso in 2026
The Athletic insiders note Boras never passes on a chance to take a client into free agency for a big payday. But there is evidence of working on and completing extensions.
So then, what could the four-time All-Star be looking for in his next or revised deal? The pair of Mets insiders suggest an annual rate of $32 million “or more” could be his price range. That is $2 million more than he is making this season. And $8 million more than his player option next season.
Assuming he wants a three or four-year pact, the club may have to fork over $96 or $128 million to keep their slugger after this season.
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