While the common belief is that small and mid-market teams like the Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates would benefit from the addition of a hard salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement, a new report explains why it may actually hurt those clubs.
MLB is headed for a payroll reckoning after this season. For the last few decades, clubs in big markets made use of their wealth by handing out big contracts to star players. Teams and fans around the league feared it would allow franchises to buy their way into championships. However, their rivals in small and mid-tier markets adjusted and proved that buying your way to a title is easier said than done.
However, the Los Angeles Dodgers winning three championships since 2020 with what is often the most expensive roster in MLB has changed that narrative. Plus, teams like the New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees giving out big contracts in recent seasons have added to a growing belief that the scales have been unfairly tipped in favor of wealthy teams. Especially the ones that can put deferrals in contracts.
That is why there has been a lot of speculation about small and mid-market owners pushing for a hard payroll cap during negotiations on the next CBA this winter. To curb the out-of-control spending over the last few years, even if it leads to a lockout. However, a new report from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich explains why there is big risk in a hard cap for teams not in major cities.
Rookie contracts will be shortened with a hard cap in the next CBA
While a hard cap would hurt wealthy teams, in theory, there is also a belief that it would come with a new minimum payroll floor. Drellich believes that number would likely be $160 million. That is an amount that the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates did not reach in 2025.
Drellich also added that with the changes to how much and how little clubs can spend, minimum salaries would go up a lot. “A big bump in the minimum salary, which is $780,000 this year, would likely be on the table as well, one larger than the league would otherwise propose.”
However, there is another request players would have if payrolls are hit with a hard cap that would have a major effect on teams like the Cards, Reds, and Pirates.
“The free agency and arbitration processes would also change. In the current system, it would be almost unthinkable for owners to let players become free agents sooner than the current wait time of six years, or to hit arbitration earlier than the current standard of three years,” Drellich writes. “But a cap could reduce those wait times.”
Small and mid-market teams benefit greatly when they have a young star looked into a bargain rookie deal for six seasons. However, that would likely change in a new CBA. Taking away a major advantage from certain clubs that have often been better at developing young talent than big market teams.
