Isaac Ciravolo
If you’ve checked a major league home run tracker lately, you’ve seen these two names. Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero and Colorado Rockies’ Hunter Goodman are on a crazy power surge. Both are putting up video-game power numbers to close out June and raise their trade value.
But a peek beneath the Statcast hood reveals two entirely different long-term realities. One looks like an American League MVP fixture. The other is walking a high-variance tightrope.
The Sustainable Star
Let’s start with Caminero. He isn’t just hot. He is scorching the earth.
The 22-year-old phenom has launched seven home runs and driven in 15 runs over his last seven games. In this stretch, he is slashing an insane .423/.500/1.231. He currently is tied for fifth-most home runs in the Major Leagues.
Usually, a tear this violent screams regression. Not this time.
Caminero is swinging with an elite, 100th percentile, bat speed. He is punishing the baseball to the tune of a 95th percentile Average Exit Velo and a 94th percentile Hard Hit rate.
Best of all, he isn’t selling out for his power. His 72nd percentile strikeout rate and 89th percentile walk rate is very strong for a power threat as scary as Caminero. His 89th percentile xwOBA validates every bit of his unbelievable box score. This isn’t a hot streak. It is an ascension.
The High-Volatility Question
Then there is Goodman. The Rockies slugger just put on a weekend fireworks display against the Minnesota Twins.
He crushed four home runs in a two-game span. That barrage included a 451-foot tank on Friday and a three-homer masterpiece on Saturday. He now sits at 25 home runs on the year, tied for second-most in the league.
When Goodman connects, the ball goes a long way. His 97th percentile Barrel rate shows his elite skill to punish pitchers for their mistakes.
But, unlike Caminero, his underlying profile comes with massive warning labels. Like most power threats, Goodman has terrible swing-and-miss metrics. He has a 4th percentile chase rate and a 7th percentile whiff rate, combining for a 3rd percentile strikeout rate. He also only has a 33rd percentile walk rate.
When a pitcher throws a mistake to Goodman, the pitch is turned around for a long home run. But any other time, Goodman struggles to make contact with the ball and the at bat ends in a strikeout.
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The Verdict
The takeaway for fans and front offices is simple. Buy Caminero’s extended breakout that started last year as permanent. He has been linked to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Enjoy Goodman’s ride while it lasts. He is a streaky hitter that is getting boosted by Coors. He will single-handedly carry an offense for two weeks when his timing is locked in, but his underlying mechanics guarantee an ice-cold valley is around the corner. His best comparison is Seattle Mariners‘ Luke Raley.
But in this moment, watch in awe as Caminero and Goodman punish every pitcher mistake.
