Isaac Ciravolo
Going into the season, the clear AL Cy Young favorite was Tarik Skubal. However, Skubal’s IL stint, due to loose bodies in his arm, opened up the race. But quietly in the Bronx, Cam Schlittler took advantage of others underperforming and is now a clear favorite to win the AL Cy Young.
Through his first 13 starts, Schlittler has pitched to a 2.13 FIP and an elite 2.8 fWAR, nearly double his preseason projection. He isn’t relying on any new pitch with above average movement, but instead is dominating the league by challenging hitters with three different fastballs.
The Fastball Dominance
Schlittler’s success hinges on a three-headed monster of fastballs: a four-seamer (45% usage), a cutter (26% usage) and a sinker (19% usage). While his fastball velocity ranks in the 92nd percentile, it is the underlying shape and execution of this mix that gives him a 100th percentile Fastball Run Value.
- The 35.9% Chase Rate: Schlittler generates a 92nd percentile Chase% by tunneling his fastballs perfectly. With the elite speed of the pitch, hitters must commit to swinging early to catch up. By the time the batter recognizes whether the pitch is a riding four-seamer at the letters, a sinker diving below the barrel, or a cutter darting off the plate, it is too late.
- Minimizing Quality Contact: Even when batters make contact, they are rarely driving the ball. Schlittler has a nearly double league average weak hit percentage (7.1% to 4% average).
Development and Arsenal Upgrades
Schlittler’s rise wasn’t entirely unheralded. After adding velocity to his fastball in 2024, jumping from 90 mph in 2023 to 95 mph in 2024, he won the South Atlantic League Pitcher of the Year for High-A. When he made his MLB debut in 2025, his fastball velo was up to 98 mph.
In addition to his increase in velocity from 2023-2025, he started to add a sinker to his arsenal that has now become an elite weapon to right handed hitters. While throwing majority four-seams to lefties, his 2026 dominance has come from throwing each of his fastballs equally to righties.
The Verdict
Schlittler represents a masterclass in modern pitching philosophy: simplify the arsenal, maximize the velocity, and rely on tunneling and elite movement profiles to miss bats.
While the Yankees offense tries to fill the void left by Aaron Judge’s rib fracture, the rotation has found another ace to complement Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon. If Schlittler maintains this pace, he will be a finalist, if not the AL Cy Young.
