Three Contenders for AL MVP with Aaron Judge Injured

On June 4th, Aaron Judge’s injury overhauled the American League MVP race. Judge, who had been posting MVP-caliber metrics through the first two months of the season was diagnosed with a right rib stress fracture.

Judge is expected to miss four to six weeks. This absence will likely keep him out of the running for the MVP race. Missing roughly 150-180 plate appearances makes accumulating the necessary counting stats and WAR nearly impossible. Judge’s injury creates a massive vacuum in value, turning what was looking like a familiar runaway campaign into a wide-open, three-man race.

So, who are now in the race to claim the AL MVP.

Yordan Alvarez: The Pure Hitter

With Judge sidelined, Alvarez stands alone as the most dominant pure offensive force in the American League. While designated hitters typically face an uphill battle in WAR calculations, Alvarez’s sheer offensive power bridges the gap.

• The Baseline: Alvarez leads the American League in home runs with 21 and is second, to his teammate Christian Walker, with 44 RBIs. Alvarez also leads all of the majors in OPS.
• The Underlying Metrics: Alvarez has a 100th percentile Batting Run Value. He also has a 100th percentile xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and a 99th percentile Avg Exit Velo and Launch Angle Sweet-Spot%. It’s safe to say that he is unmatched with the bat.
• The Verdict: If the Astros’ offense continues to run almost entirely through his bat, and minorly through Walker’s bat, Alvarez will get both the counting stats and the storyline to back his strong candidacy for MVP.

Bobby Witt Jr.: The All-Around Threat

Alvarez and Judge are both elite power threats, but Bobby Witt Jr. is an all around beast. Witt represents the extreme advantage of elite defense at a premium position to gain high WAR. Witt’s value is insulated from slumps because he contributes across every phase of the game.

• The Baseline: Witt has an American League leading 3.8 fWAR. While he does not rank highly at any singular stat, his overall talent boosts his WAR value immensely.
• The Underlying Metrics: Witt boasts a 100th percentile Fielding Run Value, 95th percentile Baserunning Run Value and 85th percentile Batting Run Value. He has a 100th percentile OAA and Sprint Speed. He is the most versatile player in the majors, let alone the American League.
• The Verdict: If Alvarez’s bat ever falters, Witt will be right behind him ready to take the crown away from Judge.

Ben Rice: The Breakout Phenom

The most unexpected narrative of the 2026 season belongs to the Yankees’ own Ben Rice. This breakout allows the Yankees to replace Judge’s production from within.

• The Baseline: Rice is second in SLG and OPS to Alvarez.
• The Underlying Metrics: With a 100th percentile Batting Run Value, Rice has cemented himself as a true intimidating hitter like Judge and Alvarez. Rice also has a top 90th percentile xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velo, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and Launch Angle Sweet-Spot%.
• The Verdict: The only way Rice can swoop in and grab the MVP is if Alvarez’s bat goes down and Witt gets injured. I do not see Rice getting the MVP but he will be the third possibility in this race and will get first place votes.

With Judge down, the American League will have its first new MVP since 2023. Out of these three, I’d give Bobby Witt Jr. the highest chance with Alvarez just behind. Ben Rice will be following behind the other two, but will get top votes from the writers.