The Toronto Blue Jays had a chance to open up some serious ground on the New York Yankees this past weekend. But instead, their 3.0 game lead atop the AL East Division was trimmed to 2.0 games, courtesy of a 2-1 Yankees series win.
So is there any panic in Jays Nation? Is the team worried about losing their grip on first place?
In short, no. Not really.
The face of the franchise, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., certainly put on a ‘What, me worry?’ tone after the 4-3 loss in the deciding game on Sunday.
“I think we’re good, I think we’re good,” Vladdy said through an interpreter. “Obviously not what we wanted here, but you flush it, you rest (Monday) and then try to win the (next) series against Houston.”
There are a number of reasons that the team, and many of its fans, don’t see the sky falling after this critical series. Let’s examine a few of them:
Blue Jays bullpen settled down nicely in New York
The Jays’ bullpen, the unquestioned weak link of the team, actually looked decent throughout the three-game set: 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 10 K for a 1.25 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. For a bullpen that came into the weekend with the second-worst ERA in baseball since the All-Star Break, that’s a huge sigh of relief.
Rookie Braydon Fisher came back from the minors to throw two shutout innings in the series. Newly-acquired lefty Ryan Borucki (in his second stint with the team) threw an impressive 1.2 innings with two Ks, tossing 12 of 15 pitches for strikes. Heck, even Jeff Hoffman, the beleaguered closer, threw a shutout inning on Sunday.
Vladdy is back to being Vladdy for the Blue Jays
Guerrero showed beyond the shadow of a doubt that he is back to being his MVP-like self. He went 8-for-13 in the three games at Yankee Stadium, and is 13-for-21 with a couple of homers, eight runs and five RBIs in his last six games. His eye at the plate over that stretch has been impeccable, with three walks against just one strikeout.
As for the rest of the offense, the series was far from a total disaster. They were just short a knock or two with runners in scoring position from turning a lost series into a winner. Toronto went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position, which has not been a problem by any stretch of the imagination over the course of the season. They still lead the majors in that category, at .287. That RISP issue could easily and quickly be rectified with a return of Bo Bichette to the lineup (he missed Sunday’s game with a sore shin), and a return to their season-long impressive discipline at the plate.
Blue Jays’ odds of winning AL East still overwhelming
And then we have the playoff odds. Using their intricate formula, Fangraphs still gives the Jays a 66.5% chance of winning the division, while the Yankees are at 29.4%. That changed by only minor percentage points from before the series.
The only thing throwing a wrench into all this optimism is the remaining schedule. With 19 games to play, the Yankees have a much less rocky road to the finish line. Per Tankathon.com, the Yankees have the second-easiest ‘Strength of Schedule’ of any playoff contender. The teams they face have a combined .477 winning percentage. For the Jays, they have the fifth most difficult Strength of Schedule of any team still fighting for playoff positioning, with a .509 winning pct. by their opponents.
The final road gets underway on Tuesday, with Toronto hosting the Houston Astros, and the Yankees facing their toughest remaining opponent, the Detroit Tigers.
All in all, vibes are still positive in Toronto going down the stretch. And when was the last time Blue Jay fans could say that?
