So let’s get this straight. The Toronto Blue Jays have needed just one week to wipe out the good vibes built over the last three months. They took a 5.0 game lead into the final 11 games of the season, but have seen it completely evaporate thanks to their sixth loss in the last seven games.
And in a crucial match-up against the Boston Red Sox Thursday night, their starting pitcher will be… Louis Varland?
How did we get here? Let’s examine the three main factors that seem to be at the root of this epic Blue Jays collapse down the stretch.
Messing With The Rotation Began Blue Jays’ swoon
Everything was sailing along last month, with a five-man rotation that was the envy of the league. But the Jays then began a failed experiment with a six-man rotation. That was deemed necessary after Shane Bieber—their featured trade deadline acquisition—was ready to make his debut.
The ever-delicate balance of a starting pitcher’s routine seemed to be thrown off for many in the rotation. Eric Lauer was sent to the bullpen, and he hasn’t been the same since. Neither has Jose Berrios, who has also since been banished to the ‘pen.
In addition, Max Scherzer, who sailed through August with a 3.34 ERA in six starts, has disintegrated into a shell of himself, with a 10.20 ERA in his last four starts. And Chris Bassitt is on the injured list.
And so, here we are. Four games to play, and reliever Louis Varland—he of the 5.66 ERA since coming over to the Jays—is the starter in a ‘bullpen game’ in quite likely their biggest contest of the year, against the Boston Red Sox.
Historically bad offensive stretch comes at worst time
But starting pitching isn’t even the worst contributor to the Blue Jays’ woes down the stretch. The offense, over the last seven games, has sunk to a 30-year low.
Per Chris Black, Toronto’s .463 OPS over the last seven games is the worst stretch over a span of that length in exactly 30 years.
But let’s break these offensive troubles down to two major contributing factors:
1. Bo Bichette‘s absence has been a disaster for the Jays offense
Bichette going down to injury earlier this month took a massive piece of their offence out of the lineup. He was the team’s co-MVP (along with George Springer). Batting .311 with an .840 OPS, Bichette was the bat in the heart of the order that really made this lineup go. In his last seven games before suffering a sprained knee, he was hitting .370 with a .455 on-base percentage and a 1.196 OPS.
Yup, that might have cured some of the ills of the offense over the last week.
But you know what else might have? Their $500 million franchise player stepping up when it counted.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slumping at the worst time
When a team loses such an important piece, like Bo Bichette, they have every reason to look to their leader—to expect their franchise player to put the team on his back. But Guerrero Jr. has been a shrinking violet over this seven-game meltdown.
He’s batted .154 with a .377 OPS over that stretch—no, those numbers are not typos.
Clearly, the Jays’ Half Billion Dollar Man needs to pick up the pace big time to give this team a lift as they limp through these final four games of the regular season.
As Toronto is now tied with the New York Yankees in the battle for 1st place in the AL East, the only silver lining at this point is that they own the tiebreaker. But with the Yankees facing two of the three worst teams in the league over their final four games, the Jays need to find a way to get those good vibes back ASAP.
And it says here, that starts with Vladdy.
