Most assume that if there is an MLB lockout after next season, it will be because the majority of clubs are tired of the massive spending from big market teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees. However, an MLB expert offered up an interesting theory that reveals a very different reason for wanting a cap.
Many around the game feel there is a financial reckoning coming for MLB this time next year. After the 2026 season, the current collective bargaining agreement expires. Recent CBAs were ratified without much issue, but that is expected to change this time, over a belief that most teams feel the league now needs a hard salary cap.
There has always been speculation that the same hard cap that is in other pro leagues, like the NFL and NHL, could come to MLB. However, the LA Dodgers have charted historic ground to try and win a third straight championship in 2026. The club will have a $342.1 million payroll next season. That will come with a $169 million luxury tax bill. Furthermore, the team has over a billion dollars invested in deferred contracts.
So, for all the mid and small market teams around the game, which is the majority of MLB, it makes sense to take a hard stance on a hard cap next winter. However, according to nine-year MLB veteran and host of the MayDay podcast, Trevor May, that isn’t the real reason clubs want a hard salary cap in the league.
Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees Spending Isn’t Why There Will Be an MLB Lockout in 2026?
According to May, NFL, NBA, and NHL teams benefit from a hard cap because it makes it far easier to accurately predict what a franchise will earn and spend the following year. With that clear-cut information, it allows owners to go to financial institutions and investors to get a valuation, then borrow money based on that number and put it into business ventures outside their team’s ownership.
“Major league baseball looks at that and says, ‘I want that. I want to be able to leverage my baseball team franchise value.’ But because they can’t predict their revenue from regional TV because it’s uncertain, and player salaries, they can’t predict revenue or expenses. Before, they couldn’t predict expenses,” May says.
He claims that with more and more business owners building wealth around the idea of valuation leveraging, MLB clubs want to do the same long-term. And a hard salary cap would be the best way to do that.
“That is their motivation, that is why they want, and they are going to frame it to be like, ‘Fans look, we can’t be competitive because there’s no cap on spending,'” he said. “But the cap on spending creates that certainty, it doesn’t actually maket he teams run better.”
