Pressure is beginning to reach peak levels for teams on the playoff bubble now that we’re in the month of December and NFL Week 13 is upon us. As we know, pressure can create diamonds, but it can also cause things to crack and break.
On top of the normal competitive nature of the NFL, this is the reason we’re expecting to see some upsets on the slate this weekend.
These teams might not lose, but they’re most certainly on upset alert.
Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Offensive fireworks should fly in the Big Easy this Sunday when Matthew Stafford leads the Lions against Drew Brees and the Saints. Both teams have the ability to light up the scoreboard and feature defenses that aren’t exactly known for their dominance.
Brees leads the NFL in a few key passing categories, including percentage (71.5), yards (3,587) and touchdowns (30). The offense he runs ranks second in the league in scoring, averaging more than 30 points per game. With that in mind, it’s easy to understand why the Saints are being seen as favorites by nearly a touchdown at home.
But if you’ve been keeping track of the Lions this year, then you know Stafford has been keeping his team in games with some clutch performances in crunch time. He has also been the NFL’s comeback king this season, leading his team to seven (!) fourth-quarter comebacks with as many game-winning drives.
To discount the Lions, who now lead the NFC North with a 7-4 record, against the Saints this weekend would not be wise.
On top of that, Theo Riddick is expected to be a full go after a modest showing against the Minnesota Vikings last weekend. He’ll be much more prone to break out with a huge game against New Orleans’ porous defense that is susceptible to being burned.
The Saints are going to score. That’s a given. But they will also let the Lions stick around, which could mean another huge win for Stafford and Co.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Diego Chargers (-3.5)
If we’ve learned one thing lately about the Bucs, it’s that they’re one of those young teams maturing into a potential playoff contender. With five wins in their last seven games and three in a row, the Buccaneers sport a winning record and are just one game behind the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.
San Diego is coming off its bye after a loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 11. Philip Rivers, who, like his team has been up and down all year, is going to need to keep his head on a swivel against Tampa Bay’s hungry defensive front. This unit destroyed Russell Wilson last weekend and has a lot to do with the team’s recent winning trend.
San Diego’s defense has stiffened up of late, but Winston should have success through the air, especially targeting Evans. The Chargers don’t have a defensive back on the roster who can match up with the big-bodied receiver who’s been tearing the league up all year long.
The one reason to think the Chargers could handle their business at home is the fact that the Bucs can be beaten on the ground. Melvin Gordon is the key for San Diego. If he runs wild, then the home team wins. Otherwise, we’re likely talking about a fourth straight win for Tampa Bay.
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
When the Steelers’ offense is running on all cylinders, it is the most dangerous scoring unit in the league. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh has been the model of inconsistency this year, hence its 6-5 record.
Big Ben Roethlisberger and Co. handled their business with ease the past couple of weeks against league doormats Indianapolis and Cleveland. But things get significantly more difficult Sunday at home against a New York Giants team that has won six straight games.
The Giants have been coming on strong of late, partly because Odell Beckham Jr. seems to have shrugged off his early season tantrums and partly because the defense that was purchased at great cost is starting to come together.
Le’Veon Bell is going to have little room to roam against a defense that is allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game. And while the Giants struggled to rush the passer early in the year, they are now starting to get into a comfort zone, with Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul becoming a tag team of destruction (watch here).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Pittsburgh, which used to be known for its defense, is allowing teams to move the ball up and down the field.
It’s hard to say how this game will play out, because both teams have the ability to light up the scoreboard. But only one of them has been keeping offenses down with any regularity. We’re picking New York decisively to pull off the upset on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
How in the world is Cincinnati favored to win any game against a team not named Cleveland right now? Here’s the answer: Philly has struggled on the road this year, (1-5). This is the only reason it is not favored to win this game.
Yes, the Bengals are only favored by one point, which means Philly is seen as the better team on a neutral playing field. But the Bengals have reverted to the Bungles this year. They haven’t won a game since October (against the Browns) and enter Sunday’s action without star receiver A.J. Green (not expected back until the end of the season, if that) and dynamic running back Giovani Bernard, who tore his ACL.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has been wildly inaccurate. He’s been getting pressured regularly and seems lost without his top weapon, and because the Bengals lost their other top receivers last spring in free agency. He’s bound to have another rough outing against Philadelphia’s dynamic defensive front, which has been among the best in the NFL this year.
As long as rookie quarterback Carson Wentz doesn’t lose the game for the Eagles with a bevy of turnovers (like what we saw against the Minnesota Vikings), Philly will win.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
After watching Alex Smith, Tyreek Hill (budding NFL star) and the Chiefs pull off an overtime stunner against the Denver Broncos last week, we’re not counting them out in any game this year.
Now, before we go into why Kansas City could easily pull off a win against the Falcons in Atlanta, we’ll say this: If Phillip Gaines has another game like we saw in Denver, the Falcons might just romp.
That out of the way, the Falcons allow more points than every team in the league but the Saints, Browns and San Francisco 49ers. They are very vulnerable to being abused on that side of the ball. So we fully expect Andy Reid, Smith and the Chiefs to exploit their vulnerabilities on the defensive side of the ball and to play keep-away with Atlanta’s offense while doing so.
The Chiefs have an offense that is designed to keep opposing offenses off the field. Smith is the master of moving the chains without taking any shots downfield. He’ll get some significant extra support this weekend as opposed to last, because Spencer Ware should have a field day running and catching the ball against Atlanta’s defense.
Kansas City’s defense is also well designed (outside of Gaines) to challenge the dynamic offense of the Falcons. Justin Houston was a force to be reckoned with last weekend, and Dee Ford is on track to play again after tweaking his hamstring a couple weeks back.
At the very least, Kansas City will make this a close game. And don’t be shocked if the Chiefs walk out of Atlanta with another clutch victory.