Scott Gulbransen
The Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka has a way of sorting out the pretenders from the genuine article, and through two races in 2026, Mercedes has made it pretty clear which category it occupies.
Back-to-back 1-2 finishes to open the season, with George Russell winning in Melbourne and the young superstar Kimi Antonelli taking his maiden victory in Shanghai. That has put Mercedes in a class of their own early in this campaign. There’s no compelling reason to think Suzuka changes that narrative. So here’s how this one plays out.
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1. Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes
Yes, he’s 18 years old. No, that doesn’t matter anymore.
What Antonelli did in China wasn’t just impressive for a rookie — it was impressive period. He managed tire pressure, race pace, and pressure from his teammate with a composure that would make veterans twice his age look uncomfortable. The kid is legitimate, and Suzuka, with its premium on rhythm and commitment through high-speed sequences like the S Curves and 130R, should suit his style.
Mercedes has collected the most points of any constructor through the opening rounds and Antonelli goes to Japan as the points leader after Shanghai. That’s not something to take lightly. If he can build on the confidence of that maiden win, there’s no reason he doesn’t stand on the top step again when the checkered flag falls Sunday.
2. George Russell | Mercedes
Russell’s season so far has been almost too clean. Won in Australia, ran a controlled second in China, and he’ll arrive at Suzuka knowing exactly what his car can do. He’s already publicly flagged awareness of threats to Mercedes’ dominance heading into Japan, which tells you he’s not taking anything for granted — a quality that’s made him one of the most consistent drivers on the grid.
The interesting subplot here is the internal battle. Russell and Antonelli are genuinely competitive with each other, and there will come a point this season where that dynamic gets uncomfortable. For now, expect them to occupy P1 and P2 in some order. Russell’s experience at Suzuka edges him ahead of his teammate in qualifying, but Antonelli’s race pace may tell a different story once the lights go out.
3. Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari
Lewis Hamilton is a five-time winner of the Japanese Grand Prix, and he’s coming off his first podium for Ferrari in Shanghai. That combination — historical dominance at this circuit plus a confidence shot from China — makes him a genuine threat for the final step of the podium.
This isn’t about sentiment. Hamilton has always been one of the great Suzuka drivers, and while the Ferrari has some ground to make up on the Mercedes package, Hamilton’s ability to extract the maximum from a car around this track is well-documented. If Ferrari has made even incremental progress, he’ll be in the mix.
Possible Spoiler: Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
Ferrari has pushed Mercedes hard through the opening rounds and Charles Leclerc shouldn’t be underestimated just because Hamilton is getting the podium spotlight right now. Leclerc tends to be exceptional in qualifying, and if he plants the Scuderia on the front row, race strategy becomes the variable. Don’t be surprised if he finds himself in podium contention come Sunday afternoon. He won’t be winning this one, but a third-place finish is within reach if Hamilton has an off day.
The Bottom Line
Mercedes is the class of the field right now, and nothing about Suzuka changes that assessment. Antonelli on top, Russell just behind, Hamilton making it a multi-team podium for the second straight race. The real storyline is whether Ferrari can chip away enough to make it genuinely close and whether Leclerc can remind everyone that Hamilton isn’t the only weapon in Maranello’s arsenal.
Suzuka has a way of producing drama when you least expect it. But right now, expecting Mercedes to dominate isn’t drama. It’s just math.
