The College Football Playoff Semifinals are set and we’ve got a fascinating matchup coming in the Fiesta Bowl between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels. It’s certainly a surprise, given the state these two programs were in at various points in the season, but one of them will be playing for a national championship.
For Miami, its hopes of making the College Football Playoff seemed to be doomed after losses midway through the season to Louisville and SMU. The Hurricanes didn’t even make the ACC Championship Game and now here they are in the Fiesta Bowl. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is now 2-0 in the College Football Playoff under Pete Golding as the entire program seems to be embracing a chance to make a mockery out of Lane Kiffin.
Let’s dive into our Fiesta Bowl predictions, including the winner of Ole Miss vs Miami.
Mark Fletcher Jr Rushes for Over 100 Yards
Hurricanes’ running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been one of the best players in the College Football Playoff. He has cleared 100 scrimmage yards in each contest, totaling 287 scrimmage yards and averaging 7.3 yards per carry against Texas A&M and Ohio State. After facing defenses that ranked seventh (Ohio State) and 40th (Texas A&M) nationally, he now faces a Rebels’ defense that entered the College Football Playoff ranked 68th in the country against the run, allowing 147.8 rushing yards per game and a 4.26 yards-per-carry average.
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Prior to his injury, Georgia running back Nate Frazier put up 86 rushing yards on just 15 carries (5.7 ypc), and none of those rushes went for more than 16 yards. Miami is going to feed Fletcher in this game, exploiting Ole Miss’s weakness and eating up the clock to limit how often Trinidad Chambliss is on the field. This strategy should work, as Fletcher makes it three straight playoff games with over 100 yards while finding the end zone.
Carson Beck Finishes Under 150 Passing Yards
Carson Beck did not get the revenge game he wanted against the Georgia Bulldogs, but the Hurricanes’ quarterback will have a real opportunity to reach the national championship game. Miami’s signal-caller has done one very important thing during the College Football Playoff: protect the football. Turnovers haunted him in the regular season (10 in his final 10 games), but he has avoided interceptions in these last two contests.
That security has come at a cost. While Beck is completing 71.7 percent of his passes in the College Football Playoff, he has averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt. If using the NFL’s model for net passing yards—total passing yards minus yards lost on sacks—Beck (21 yards lost on four sacks) would have just 220 net passing yards on 50 dropbacks (4.4 yards per dropback). Rebels’ head coach Pete Golding will be able to scheme up a game plan that takes advantage of how limited this Hurricanes’ passing game is, given how conservatively Beck is playing.
Rueben Bain Jr. Continues his College Football Playoff Dominance
It cannot be overstated just how dominant Hurricanes’ edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. has been in the College Football Playoff. He netted four tackles for loss and three sacks against Texas A&M and then followed that up with 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack versus Ohio State. It will not be easy to bring down Trinidad Chambliss, who has taken just eight sacks outside of the Florida game (where he took five). The Rebels have a very good offensive line, but Bain Jr. is in the middle of a stretch where the opponent does not matter. He will sack Chambliss in the Fiesta Bowl and record a pair of TFLs, giving him 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks in three playoff games. It’ll ensure he’s a top-four pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Related: 2026 NFL Mock Draft, see where Miami and Ole Miss Stars Land
Miami Hurricanes Win the Fiesta Bowl
The 10th-seeded Hurricanes feel like a team of destiny. Well, that and they have arguably two of the biggest playoff standouts dominating on both sides of the ball right now. Miami won at Texas A&M in a 10–3 final that was more one-sided than the score suggested, and followed it with a two-score victory over Ohio State; this team is simply playing exceptionally well right now. That is not to lessen what Ole Miss is doing, achieving a level of success that Lane Kiffin might never experience now that he has moved on to the LSU Tigers. With that said, Miami boasts the run game and defensive line to truly cause problems for the Rebels. Those two things will be the difference-makers in this game, with Miami punching its ticket to the CFP National Championship Game at home in Miami.
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