There have been three regular-season rematches in the College Football Playoff, with the team that lost the first meeting coming out victorious in the playoff. Beating the same team twice in a year is extremely difficult; that is the challenge facing the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers in the Peach Bowl against the Oregon Ducks.
Both teams are coming off impressive performances in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. Oregon shut out the Texas Tech Red Raiders while Indiana utterly dismantled Alabama in a 38–3 rout. Now they go head-to-head, a rematch from October 11, with the winner likely to be the favorite in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Elijah Sarratt Held Under 50 Yards
Back on Oct. 11 in Eugene, the Ducks’ defense had absolutely no answers for Hoosiers’ wide receiver Elijah Sarratt. He finished that game with eight receptions for 121 receiving yards and one touchdown, with his longest reception “only” going for 29 yards. It started from the first play—a 24-yard reception—and he was a particularly popular target for Fernando Mendoza on first down, putting up a 4–60 line with a defensive pass interference drawn in the end zone on first-down targets.
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What could prove to be a difference-maker in this game is the presence of Oregon’s freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. Standing at 6-foot-2, he offers the size and length to stick with Sarratt in coverage, and he has more than held his own as a full-time starter since October. This is one of the top matchups we expect to see in the Peach Bowl; given his outstanding play this year, we think the true freshman corner will contain Sarratt and force Mendoza to target other receivers.
Dante Moore Throws an Interception
In the first game without standout defensive lineman Stephen Daley, the Hoosiers needed to get more creative in the Rose Bowl with how they generated pressure. It worked—recording five quarterback hits and three sacks—but it is worth noting that the Ducks’ offensive line (93.4 PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency and only four sacks allowed this season) is far better than the unit Alabama (90.1 PFF PBE and 15 sacks allowed) fielded. So, Indiana might have to blitz quarterback Dante Moore at a higher rate.
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Oregon’s star signal-caller has been excellent this season. Entering the College Football Playoff, he boasted a 69.8 percent completion rate and averaged 9.9 yards per attempt with 12 passing touchdowns when blitzed. However, he also threw 4 interceptions versus the blitz. Back in Week 7 versus this same Hoosiers defense, per PFF, Moore completed just 58.8 percent of his pass attempts on 19 dropbacks versus the blitz with 1 interception and a touchdown. We expect Indiana to be that aggressive in the Peach Bowl, with that limited time to throw resulting in Moore throwing an interception.
Fernando Mendoza Throws 2 Touchdowns vs Oregon Ducks
Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, has simply been sensational this season. In the Rose Bowl—where he completed 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns—he finished with more passing touchdowns than incompletions for the fourth time this season. While he has thrown an interception against Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State this season, he has also posted an 89-plus ESPN QBR against two of the nation’s best defenses.
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There is just no reason to think Mendoza will fold under the pressure of playing in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. He has been nails all season, showcasing a level of poise, accuracy, and an understanding of where to attack defenses that will make him the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. While it is very possible that Mendoza throws an interception in the Peach Bowl, we think it will come with multiple passing touchdowns and over 200 passing yards.
Indiana Hoosiers win the Peach Bowl in a Nail-Biter
Do not let Indiana’s 10-point win in Eugene from October fool you into thinking it was a one-sided game. The Hoosiers and Ducks were tied at 13 late in the third quarter, and a pick-six later made it a 20–20 game early in the fourth quarter. It was not until interceptions on consecutive drives by Moore that this became a two-score game. It was a battle for most of the day, and that is exactly what we expect in the Peach Bowl.
With that said, victories over Ohio State and Alabama have left us with no question that Indiana is the best team in college football. We would also point to the fact that Oregon needed to be aggressive and effective on fourth down (3-for-4) and snag a pick-six only to still lose at home to the Hoosiers.
Indiana is the best-coached team in the nation, with the country’s top quarterback and a defense that can be just as dominant as the offense. Oregon has had an excellent season, but it is drawing a CFP Semifinal matchup against a more dominant force. The Ducks will make it a battle, but the Hoosiers win the Peach Bowl in the end. A second field goal will make it a six-point game late in the fourth quarter, and Oregon’s potential game-winning drive with under two minutes left will come up short.
- Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers 27, Oregon Ducks 21
