The first round of the College Football Playoff delivered a few rematches from the regular season, including for the Ole Miss Rebels. So it’s fitting that in the quarterfinal, we’re getting an SEC rematch between Ole Miss and the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl.
Let’s dive into our Sugar Bowl predictions, with 4 predictions for what we’ll see in Ole Miss vs Georgia.
Nate Frazier Eclipses the 100-Yard Mark
In early October, when Ole Miss and Georgia met at Sanford Stadium, Bulldogs running back Nate Frazier finished with a team-high 72 rushing yards on 17 carries (4.2 yards per carry). What is impressive about that rushing total, beyond the fact that Georgia put up 221 yards on the ground as a team, is that Frazier reached 72 yards without ever having a carry go for 9-plus yards.
Stopping the run has been an issue for Ole Miss. Tulane running back Jamauri McClure eclipsed 80 yards, Mississippi State put up 262 rushing yards in the Egg Bowl, and Oklahoma’s Xavier Robinson had a 100-yard game with two touchdowns versus Ole Miss. With Frazier putting up 467 rushing yards and averaging 6.8 yards per carry over his last five games, we think he will be an integral and successful part of the Bulldogs offense in the Sugar Bowl.
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Georgia Holds Ole Miss Rebels Under 80 Rushing Yards
Going back to that regular-season battle between the Bulldogs and Rebels, Ole Miss finished the game with 88 rushing yards on 24 carries. Trinidad Chambliss (16 yards) and Kewan Lacy (12 yards) each had an explosive run apiece, but the rest of the touches averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. That came before we saw this Bulldogs defense really flip a switch and play some outstanding football late in the season.
Including the SEC Championship Game, opponents averaged just 32 rushing yards per game with a 1.75 yards-per-carry average and that four-game stretch includes Texas and Georgia Tech. Georgia has simply suffocated the ground game in the last month of the season and Kirby Smart will have had nearly a month to prepare for Lacy and Chambliss. We just don’t see the Rebels’ rushing attack eclipsing 70 yards in this one.
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Gunner Stockton Delivers 4 TDs, 275+ Yards in the Sugar Bowl
After a miserable performance versus Georgia Tech, Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton responded by delivering one of his most efficient performances of the season. He completed 76.9 percent of his 26 pass attempts versus Alabama, accounting for three passing touchdowns and finishing with an 83.2 ESPN QBR. We think he will be even better in the Sugar Bowl.
Just a few months ago versus this same Rebels defense, Stockton had as many total touchdowns (five) as incompletions. It was a season-best performance at Sanford Stadium, with the Heisman Trophy candidate putting up a stellar 96.9 ESPN QBR with 348 total yards of offense and an 83.9 percent completion rate. While we do expect that either Nate Frazier or Chauncey Bowens will prevent him from another five-touchdown game, Stockton will deliver four total touchdowns with at least 275-plus total yards in an outstanding Sugar Bowl performance.
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Georgia Bulldogs 35, Ole Miss Rebels 17
Ole Miss can point to the fact that it led Georgia 35-26 entering the fourth quarter in their last meeting as evidence that it can win the Sugar Bowl. However, Lane Kiffin is gone, and the Bulldogs are a much better team defensively than when these programs met on Oct. 18. This is also a massive stage, something Georgia is very accustomed to but the Rebels are not. Football fans are going to see the version of Georgia we saw in the SEC Championship Game—playing dominant football in all three facets and winning convincingly. It will be a two-score win for the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl, punching their ticket to a Fiesta Bowl matchup versus Ohio State with a spot in the National Championship Game at stake.
