The Miami Hurricanes defense dominated in the first round of the College Football Playoff, securing the team’s ticket to the Cotton Bowl for a matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes. It sets the stage for a quarterfinal clash on Dec. 31 between two of the best defenses in college football, both featuring explosive playmakers.
Let’s dive into our Cotton Bowl predictions for Miami vs Ohio State, including who comes out on top and advances to the National Championship.
Carson Beck Throws INT in Ugly Performance
The performance by Carson Beck in the first round of the College Football Playoff—103 passing yards, 5.2 yards per attempt, 2 sacks taken, and 1 fumble—did nothing to inspire confidence in him. It is only made worse by the fact that he will now be facing a Buckeyes defense that ranked second among Power 4 teams in ESPN Stop Rate (80.4 percent) and allowed the second-fewest points per drive (0.91) in the nation.
It is also worth noting that Ohio State ranks ninth in passer rating allowed (105.62) and third in yards per attempt surrendered (5.31). Where Miami could really get in trouble is if the Buckeyes are able to generate consistent pressure, as Beck finished the regular season with an abysmal 51.3 percent completion rate when pressured. We think Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will dial up some complex blitz packages in the Cotton Bowl, taking advantage of Beck’s issues, such as his 4.2 percent interception rate when blitzed. It will result in Beck getting picked off, taking at least three sacks, and finishing under 125 passing yards.
Related: Winners, Losers from Miami Hurricanes vs Texas A&M Aggies
Mark Fletcher Jr Rushes for 80+ Yards, Finds the End Zone
As the Indiana Hoosiers demonstrated in the Big Ten Championship Game, you can run the football on this Buckeyes defense with a solid offensive line. Ohio State allowed 121 rushing yards on 29 carries to Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby, Washington’s Jonah Coleman put up 70 yards on 13 carries, and Jordan Marshall turned seven carries into 61 rushing yards. Needless to say, we are optimistic about Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr in the Cotton Bowl.
The 6-foot-2, 225-pound running back showed what he is capable of versus Texas A&M, both with explosive runs and the consistency to get four-plus yards on a majority of his touches. Fletcher Jr. is the reason why Miami advanced to the quarterfinals, and he will be critical for the program to have any chance of pulling off the upset at AT&T Stadium.
Read More: College Football Playoff Preview, Rose Bowl Predictions for Alabama vs Indiana
Jeremiah Smith Hits 100-Yard Mark, Scores a Touchdown
There is a bit of added motivation here for Jeremiah Smith. Not only was he not named a Heisman Trophy finalist, but he also did not win the Fred Biletnikoff Award—a decision that certainly seemed to bother him. The last time he took the field, he became the first receiver this season to put up 100 yards on the Hoosiers’ defense. While 100-yard performances have been fairly rare for Smith, with just three since September 27, they tend to come in bunches. Each time he has had a 100-yard game this season, he followed it up with another in the next game. We see that trend continuing in the Cotton Bowl, with Smith pulling down at least six receptions and eclipsing the 100-yard mark while scoring a touchdown.
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Ohio State Buckeyes 21, Miami Hurricanes 13
While the Miami Hurricanes only beat Texas A&M 10-3, it could have been a two-score victory if not for missed field goals. That is to say that, with the way this defense is playing, people should not sleep on this program. Similar to Indiana, Miami has the ability to beat Ohio State in the trenches, and that could be a difference-maker in the Cotton Bowl.
However, the Buckeyes’ advantage at wide receiver and quarterback puts them in a much different tier than any offense the Hurricanes have faced this season. Furthermore, Beck has proven that he cannot really be trusted in big games, and he is now facing one of the nation’s best and certainly most talented defenses. The better playmakers, deeper roster, and superior coaching staff will win the Cotton Bowl and send Ohio State to the College Football Playoff semifinal in a Fiesta Bowl battle versus the Georgia Bulldogs.
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