The College Football Playoff kicks off on Dec. 19 with a First Round matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners. Fittingly for a Round 1 battle this season, it’s a rematch for these two SEC programs only this time at a different venue and with far higher stakes.
Let’s dive into our College Football Playoff predictions for Alabama vs Oklahoma, including the winner.
Oklahoma Holds Alabama Under 50 Rushing Yards
Jam Miller returned to the practice field for the Crimson Tide in the first session just a week out from the College Football Playoff. Even if he takes the field, though, it’s fair to question how effective he’ll be. Miller’s absence or a limited version of the top running back spells real trouble for Alabama against a Sooners defense that has surrendered the second-lowest yards per carry average (2.47) and the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (81.4) while leading the nation in tackles for loss (9.6 per game). This is a losing matchup for the Crimson Tide, who finished the season allowing 4.38 TFLs per game and ranked 116th in rushing (116.2 rushing yards per game). Oklahoma will hold Alabama under 50 total rushing yards in this matchup.
John Mateer Throws an Interception
John Mateer didn’t play particularly well against Alabama in Week 12. While he didn’t turn the ball over, the Sooners quarterback averaged just 6 yards per attempt on 27 dropbacks with 138 passing yards and no touchdowns. What makes that a bit worse is the fact that the Crimson Tide pass rush pressured him just once with a single hurry, per PFF. We expect Alabama’s defense to be more effective in generating pressure, which is an issue for Mateer as evidenced by his 40.7 percent completion rate and 2-3 TD-INT ratio when pressured this season. We’ll also note that 7 of Mateer’s 10 interceptions this season have come in the last seven games. We think he gets picked off early in the College Football Playoff.
Ryan Williams Finds the End Zone
It’s been a sophomore season to forget for Ryan Williams. A second-team All-American as a true freshman, Williams came into 2025 with massive expectations. Unfortunately, injuries limited him early, and he later seemed to struggle with drops, and that resulted in growing frustration and shaky confidence. He’s now had time off to reset, and the Crimson Tide coaching staff had two weeks to find better ways to keep him involved in the offense. In the first round of the College Football Playoff, Williams will score his first touchdown since Nov. 8 and only his second since the second week of October.
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Alabama Crimson Tide Knock Out Oklahoma
It’s difficult to beat the Crimson Tide twice in one season. The fact that Alabama can’t run the football effectively and its offensive line does allow pressure at a high rate would tend to lead to us picking Oklahoma to win it at home. However, the Sooners haven’t been particularly effective at running the football either, and we don’t have a ton of confidence in Mateer in a close game entering the fourth quarter. Oklahoma needed to dominate the turnover battle in Tuscaloosa (3-0) to win 23-21. We just don’t see that happening again, with Ty Simpson making just enough plays to knock out the Sooners.
- Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 20, Oklahoma Sooners 17
