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Majority of NFL teams reportedly believe they know who will be the first pick in 2024 NFL Draft

2024 NFL Draft, Chicago Bears
Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bears have the first pick in the draft for the second consecutive year, this time thanks to the Carolina Panthers. As the Bears’ front office evaluates its options with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, there is reportedly a widespread belief about exactly what will happen.

Heading into the offseason, the ongoing debate starts with whether or not Chicago should keep quarterback Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 pick or visa versa. If the Bears determine Fields isn’t their long-term solution, they will trade him and then it becomes a debate over whether or not to select USC Trojans star Caleb Williams or North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye.

Related: NFL insider reveals potential timeline for a Justin Fields trade before 2024 NFL Draft

While Chicago is doing everything it can to keep its plans quiet ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, many around the league seem extremely confident the Bears’ decision is already locked in.

Appearing on The Pat McAfee Show, ESPN’s NFL reporter Adam Schefter shared that there is ‘widespread consensus’ around the NFL that the Bears will trade Fields this offseason and then use the No. 1 overall pick on Williams and build around him.

“There are a few issues with this. Number one, are the Bears going to be willing to move on from taking Caleb Williams, which I believe seems to be the widespread consensus around the league: that Caleb Williams will be the No. 1 pick…the feeling around the league seems to be that they’ll wind up trading Justin. Whether or not they do, we’ll see, but that seems to be the feeling.”

Adam Schefter on the Chicago Bears’ plans with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Related: 2024 NFL Draft order, picks by team

Will the Bears trade Justin Fields?

While Chicago would obtain far more draft capital by trading the No. 1 pick and keeping Fields, a majority of NFL general managers and scouts believe the only option is to keep the pick. While there are debates on who is the best quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft, there is consensus that the only logical path forward for Chicago is building a team around the quarterback it drafts at No. 1 overall.

While Fields has flashed tantalizing potential and improved as a passer, he’s entering the fourth year of his rookie contract and will soon have to be signed to a lucrative contract extension. The Bears can get out of that by trading him, creating maximum roster and financial flexibility by bringing in a rookie quarterback who will be on a cap-friendly contract for the next four-plus years.

  • Justin Fields stats 2023: 2,562 passing yards, 16-9 TD-INT, 6.9 yards per attempt, 657 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns in 13 games

Based on the consensus expectation around the league, fans should expect to hear a lot of NFL trade rumors regarding Fields at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February. While teams agree he isn’t better than Williams or Maye, there will be several clubs very interested in him as a starting quarterback for the 2024 season.

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