Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are currently sitting below the playoff cut-line with four races remaining in the 2023 NASCAR regular season. However, this would not be the case if the Hendrick Motorsports teammates did not miss time with injuries or suspensions.
Elliott fractured his left tibia in a snowboarding accident following the second race of the season and missed six events. Then, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion was suspended at World Wide Technology Raceway after wrecking Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin on the front stretch during the Coca-Cola 600.
As for Bowman, he missed three races with a fractured vertebra in a sprint car racing accident following the race at Talladega. Plus, the driver of the No. 48 car was penalized 60 points and five playoff points due to a greenhouse violation. The Hendrick Motorsports drivers need points or a victory and time is quickly running out.
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Alex Bowman’s push to make the 2023 NASCAR playoffs with four races left
Bowman returned from his three-week absence at the Coca-Cola 600 and looked to be in a good spot to make the 2023 NASCAR playoffs based on his strong start to the season. Unfortunately for the No. 48 team, that did not translate after his return.
Over the last nine races, Bowman has a best finish of 12th place at the Coca-Cola 600 with four finishes outside of the top 20 spots. It has been a massive decline after the 30-year-old driver had six top-10 finishes through the first seven races of the season.
Now, Bowman sits 21st in the points standings with a 42-point deficit to Michael McDowell in 16th place. The last two races, Pocono and Richmond, were supposed to represent his best chances to gain points or a victory before the end of the regular season.
That did not end up being the case as the No. 48 car came to the checkered flag with two finishes outside of the top-15 spots. Now, Bowman has a very unfortunate setup of races as the rest of the playoff bubble competitors are eager to get it all started.
Michigan International Speedway, the Indianapolis Road Course, Watkins Glen International, and Daytona International Speedway are the final four races before the 2023 NASCAR playoffs begin. For Bowman, the panic button should be pressed due to Elliott, McDowell, Ty Gibbs, A.J. Allmendinger, and Daniel Suarez.
All five of those drivers are very good on road courses while the driver of the No. 48 car has not been great. Since the debut of the NextGen car, Bowman has two top-10 finishes in nine road course races. Both of those top-10 finishes came at Circuit of the Americas, which has already been run this year.
As for Indianapolis and Watkins Glen, his best finish was 14th place at the latter. Plus, where do all of the playoff bubble drivers rank in average finishing position at road courses? Elliott is first, McDowell is third, Allmendinger is eighth, Bowman is 15th, Gibbs is 16th, and Suarez is 20th.
There is a clear disadvantage as the majority of the drivers above him are good road course competitors. With the addition of Daytona, three of the four races left are complete wild cards where points and good finishing positions will be hard to come by.
This makes Michigan an important race and one that Bowman needs to do well at very badly. The 30-year-old driver has a best finish of ninth place in nine starts with Hendrick Motorsports at the venue and that simply needs to be improved upon this weekend.
As said above, the No. 48 team needs to put all hands on deck for Michigan because it might be the final opportunity that Bowman has at gaining significant points. In all reality, this should have been the case for Pocono and Richmond. Sure, Bowman wasn’t completely at fault for Pocono but Richmond was disappointing for Hendrick Motorsports as a whole.
The time for Bowman to run well and earn stage points is now. If not, Bowman will end up on the outside looking in pending a massive victory, collapse by several playoff bubble drivers, or surprising runs in the final four races of the regular season.
Related: Hendrick Motorsports talks about Chase Elliott’s suspension ahead of Sonoma Raceway
Chase Elliott’s current status with the 2023 NASCAR regular season ending soon
McDowell, Gibbs, and Allmendinger have been around the playoff bubble for several weeks now; however, all three drivers are starting to look in the mirror. Elliott is quickly approaching and the deficit sits at a reasonable 40 points with four races left before the 2023 NASCAR playoffs.
Some might have called Elliott’s playoff run inevitable after returning from his fractured left tibia but a two-race stretch with only three points stopped the conversation. The probable comeback of NASCAR’s most popular driver was halted and the doubts of a playoff berth crept into the picture.
Now, Elliott is 40 points out of the playoff picture thanks to a very strong day at Richmond. The driver of the No. 9 car gained 16 points on McDowell and it couldn’t have come at a better time. In fact, the rest of the regular season is setting up well.
Elliott has the best average finishing position of any driver at road courses since the NextGen car debuted but this isn’t the most notable statistic. McDowell has earned the most points of any driver at road courses with the NextGen car.
Chase Elliott’s road course stats (last eight races): Zero wins, five top-5 finishes, six top-10 finishes
Sure, McDowell would probably be in second place if Elliott didn’t miss Circuit of the Americas but the point remains. The Hendrick Motorsports driver is up for a major challenge because the drivers around the playoff driver are great road course competitors. This stretch of races should be good for him though.
Let’s just say Elliott does very well at Michigan, Indianapolis, and Watkins Glen. In fact, let’s say he gains 16 points per race on McDowell over that period of time without a victory. Elliott would surpass McDowell and likely be 16th in the playoff picture barring any outside winners.
Still, Elliott would only be eight points above McDowell going into Daytona. Needless to say, it is very likely that he won’t be anywhere close to comfortable at the final race of the regular season unless he wins a race over the next four weeks.
Plus, a victory would prevent the worst-case scenario. If a driver outside of the playoff picture wins a race over the next four events, it would move the playoff cut-line up and Wallace would be the final driver. As of now, Elliott is 94 points behind Wallace. It would take an average gain of 23.5 points per race to make up that gap.
Elliott will not catch Wallace barring a major, major collapse by the driver of the No. 23 car, who had an incredibly strong weekend at Richmond. This is why the No. 9 team and its fans must cross their fingers and hope that a driver outside of the playoffs does not win an event. Elliott would most likely be in a must-win situation moving forward.
This is what makes Daytona very scary for the playoff bubble drivers. One unexpected winner like Justin Haley in 2019, Austin Cindric in 2022, or even Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in 2023 would change the entire picture. There is a zero percent chance that Elliott enters Daytona with any sort of comfort without a victory.
That is one reason why NASCAR should be celebrating Daytona as the regular season finale. The stakes, nerves, and drama are at an all-time high every single season and the sport should never consider moving the final race to a different track.
Elliott and Bowman didn’t expect to be in this position when the green flag of the 2023 Daytona 500 was waved but these are unique circumstances. Both competitors are four races away from falling short of the NASCAR playoffs, which would be very disappointing for Hendrick Motorsports drivers.
It will only get more and more stressful unless a victory comes their way. Elliott and Bowman know that time is running out and that makes Michigan really important as it represents the final race that can be characterized as “normal” moving forward.