Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Coming off their bye week, the Indianapolis Colts look to continue their winning streak as they take on Tampa Bay. This will be the first game without star linebacker Shaquille Leonard as he was cut earlier this week. His loss on the field isn’t expected to be too noticeable because of his lack of production this season. However, his impact in the locker room could be missed.
As for the game, the Colts will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak to Tampa Bay. Indianapolis last won beat the Bucs in 2015, when ESPN analyst Matt Hasselbeck was the quarterback. Then, of course, there was the famous 2003 Monday Night Football game between these two teams that saw Peyton Manning lead an improbable comeback.
The two most recent matchups these two teams have been fairly evenly matched, with the Bucs winning 38-35 in 2019 and 38-31 in 2021. In fact, in eight of the 15 matchups between these teams, at least one of them has scored 30 points. In four of the games, both of the teams scored 30 points.
Here are four bold predictions for the Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game.
At the start of the season, the Colts boasted arguably the two best run-stopping defensive tackles in the NFL. Then Grover Stewart got popped with a six-game suspension after failing a random drug test. Since then, the run defense hasn’t been the same.
Bucs second-year running back Rachaad White has been productive this season but it may not be to the level many were expecting. His high rush yards in a game this season is just 73, which he’s done twice. Upon an even closer look, he’s only surpassed 50 yards rushing four times on the season. However, over the past four games the Colts are giving up an average of 120 rushing yards. White hits the century mark making him the third running back to do that during Stewart’s suspension.
Alec Pierce is having a disappointing season, to say the least. He’s only exceeded 50 yards receiving once and is averaging 14.7 yards per reception, which is almost identical to last season’s 14.5. More was expected of him this season but it hasn’t happened yet.
This week shapes up to be a good matchup for him as Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 27th in yards per completion at 11.8. Their top four cornerbacks have been giving up over 10 yards per completion, Zyon McCollum (12.7), Jamel Dean (13.4), Dee Delaney (13.9), and Carlton Davis (15.7).
Pierce’s longest catch on the season went for 38 yards. In this matchup, he gets loose for a 40-yard catch and score.
The Colts defense has been on a positive trajectory over the past four games, at least in regards to the number of points allowed. During this stretch, their opponents have scored 39, 38, 13, and 6 points. Another positive sign, during the same stretch the Colts pass rush has racked up a total of 12 sacks.
On the season they rank 12th in sacks with (30), 21st in pressure percentage (20.6), 24th in both quarterback knockdown (8.4) and hurry (5.8) percentage, and last in blitz percentage (16). For comparison, Tampa Bay ranks 13th in sacks (29), 18th in pressure percentage (21.7), 19th in quarterback knockdown percentage (8.8), 21st in hurry percentage (6.7), and third in blitz percentage (38.3).
However, Tampa Bay’s quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks seventh in the fewest sack percentage at 5.41 and tied for 23rd with being sacked just 20 times on the season. Regardless, this week the Colts pass rush sacks Mayfield five times.
Speaking of Mayfield, he’s ranked ninth in pass attempts per game at 35. And 10th in completions per game, 22.6. He ranks 15th in passing yards on the season at 2,389.
The recipient of a majority of these passes is Mike Evans. He ranks 10th in yards per reception (16.3), 11th in yards (780), and is tied for third with touchdowns (7). However, Chris Godwin leads the team in receptions with 50. So, the Colts’ pass defense will have their work cut out for them this week.
As for Mayfield, he’s exceeded 250 passing yards just four times this season. However, over his last four games, he’s averaging over 250 yards. After this week he’ll be up to five times. He’s also only thrown multiple touchdowns five times but, again, after this week he’ll have accomplished this feat six times.