The Atlanta Braves had the best record in baseball last season, and they figure to be in contention for that same honor in 2024. Atlanta is stacked. Last year’s club had an offense that rivaled the “Murderer’s Row” New York Yankees of 1927. Each team had a wRC+ of 125 (100 is league average), and that is the highest mark that any team in big-league history has put up over the course of a full 162 (or 155) game season.
wRC+ is a nice stat here because it adjusts for eras and compares teams to their contemporaries. The Braves hit 149 more home runs than the Bombers, but they also struck out twice as much. Different eras have different quirks, but wRC+ shows that they were equally as good in their time.
The question for Atlanta this season will be whether or not they can make a deeper postseason run this year than they have the past two seasons. Since winning the World Series in 2021, they have been knocked out by the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series in four games in back-to-back years. Some think it’s the layoff between the end of the regular season and the start of the NLDS that has had an impact, but with the Braves expected to win the NL East for a seventh-consecutive year, they’re going to have to figure out how to stay sharp when October baseball starts.
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Braves additions and subtractions
Atlanta was moving contracts left and right this offseason. They brought in Marco Gonzales at the beginning of December and traded him two days later. The same goes for Evan White and Max Stassi. They made a lot of moves, but only a handful of them will have an impact on the 2024 season.
The biggest addition to the roster was Chris Sale, whom the Braves acquired from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Vaughn Grissom, a talented player who just didn’t have a position in Atlanta’s stacked offense. Boston is also paying $17 million of Sale’s $27.5 million salary for the upcoming season.
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The other impact arm that the club added was Reynaldo López, who will begin the year as the team’s fifth starter. He hasn’t been a consistent starter since 2020, and has been quite effective out of the bullpen in the years since. This spring he holds a 2.16 ERA through 16 2/3 innings, but his 6.37 FIP suggests there could be some rough outings in the future as well.
In one of the many trades, the Braves also nabbed Jarred Kelenic, 24, after he seemed to finally put things together at the big-league level with Seattle in 2023. So far this spring has been a bit of a nightmare, with the left-hander batting just .125 with a .192 OBP and a -3 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances. He’s also projected to be the left fielder on Opening Day.
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Eddie Rosario, Nicky Lopez, and Jesse Chavez are the biggest departures from the ’23 roster.
Braves 2024 outlook
This is where things get interesting. This season is going to be all about advancing past the NLDS for Atlanta. They’re expected and projected to be one of the two best teams in baseball. They could even be the top club, depending on how you feel about the Los Angeles Dodgers. What the Braves do in the regular season doesn’t matter, however. It’ll be all up to what they can accomplish in October.
To that end, the pieces they’ve brought in, specifically Kelenic and Sale, have a lot of upside. The big question heading into the season is whether Kelenic can get it going and be the hitter he was in Seattle last season when he hit .253 with a .327 OBP, 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 105 games. With Sale, the questions are how healthy can he be late in the season, and does he have some of those dominant performances left in the tank for the postseason?
If the answer to each of those is positive, then Atlanta will have a pretty good shot of advancing, even against the pesky Phillies. They could also advance without either of those guys, but that would entail Acuña, Riley, Olson, Murphy and the bunch to pick up a little slack on the offensive end.
The projected field beyond Philadelphia could be pretty good come playoff time, too. The Giants have made some additions recently, bringing in Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, which upgrades their defense and their pitching staff. Heading into October, they could have a rotation with Logan Webb, Snell, Robbie Ray, and Alex Cobb. Webb and Snell finished one-two in the NL Cy Young voting last year and could present a formidable force in October.
No matter the opponent, it’s not going to be a cakewalk for the Braves once the postseason begins, but they’ve made some interesting additions that could pay off handsomely.
Braves player to watch in 2024
Honestly, the entire Braves roster is worth watching because they have a star at every single position. But if you want someone a little off the beaten path, take a look at reliever Pierce Johnson. Atlanta acquired the 32-year-old from the Colorado Rockies last year at the Trade Deadline and he went on to post a 0.76 ERA with an 0.89 WHIP in 24 games down the stretch. This was after posting a 6.00 ERA with Colorado and holding a 1.85 WHIP. Yes, a big part of his struggles came at altitude where he held a 6.93 ERA last year.
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Outside of the outstanding run with Atlanta last year, he’s also similar to the best pitcher on the Braves’ staff, Spencer Strider in one key way. Over at FanGraphs they have a few stats for the really nerdy baseball fans called “Stuff+”, “Location+”, and “Pitching+”. Essentially, how good is a pitcher’s stuff, how good is their location, and how does that all combine.
Johnson had the best Stuff+ on Atlanta’s pitching staff at 129, which, like wRC+, is graded with 100 being league average. Strider was right behind him at 125. Johnson also had the best location on the club at 107, and ended up tied with Strider at 112 in Pitching+. That’s not nothing. In terms of relievers across baseball, that 112 ranked in the top-10. For comparison, Johnson’s stuff was as good as Twins’ closer Jhoan Duran, his location was nine percent better, and overall he was seven percent better.
Don’t be surprised if he ends up pitching big innings for the Braves in 2024.
