The last time the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers faced off in a postseason game was 2012, when Joe Saunders outdueled Yu Darvish in the league’s first, one-game Wild Card showdown.
Before this week, the last time the Minnesota Twins won a playoff game was 2004, and they hadn’t won a postseason series since 2002.
The last time the Houston Astros got this far was … well, they seemingly always get this far or farther; they’ve made it to the American League Championship Series six straight seasons – and perhaps counting – while winning last year’s World Series in six games over the Philadelphia Phillies.
It’s a whole new tournament now, with the best-of-five AL Division Series beginning in Baltimore and Houston on Saturday.
Here’s a look at each AL series with a prediction at the end.
(5) Texas Rangers (90-72) at (1) Baltimore Orioles (101-61)
First game: Saturday, 1:03 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
2023 head-to-head record: Even, 3-3; 26-19 cumulative scoring in favor of Texas
Odds to win series: Orioles, -125; 55.6% probability to win, according to SportsBetting.ag.
How they got here: The Orioles improved from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 in 2022 to 101 victories and the best record in the AL this season. They have some budding stars, but currently are greater than the sum of their parts. The Rangers were the best team in the AL West for much of the season before riding a seesaw in September of intermittent winning and losing streaks. They dropped the division title on the season’s final day, then traveled to Tampa Bay and beat the Rays twice at Tropicana Field, outscoring the top AL Wild Card, 11-1.
Why this matchup is intriguing: Because there are two different styles at play here. The Rangers have a star-studded offense that bashes and bashes some more. They also had a star-studded rotation that is now without Jacob deGrom (elbow surgery), Jon Gray (forearm strain) and likely Max Scherzer (shoulder/back muscle). The Orioles are built on the little things: Strong defense, aggressive baserunning, formidable bullpen and a rotation and offense that get the job done most nights. They have little postseason experience, though.
Why the Orioles will win: Because that’s what they’ve done all year: Win. The Orioles haven’t been swept since May 2022 (before catcher Adley Rutschman made his debut) and their longest losing streak in 2023 is four games. They were 30-16 in one-run games and had 48 comeback victories, tied for the most in the majors. That fortitude has been tested in the past month without All Star closer Félix Bautista (pending elbow surgery), who led a shutdown bullpen that has shown some cracks. That could be a major factor here. But the Orioles still have a distinct advantage over the Rangers if this series becomes a bullpen battle. Additionally, the unheralded rotation has picked up the slack recently, especially with the return of lefty John Means. Rutschman and likely AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson thrive in pressure-packed situations as does an underrated outfield that covers lots of ground and has provided key hits throughout the season.
Why the Rangers will win: Because they have a destructive offense led by MVP candidates Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García. They have 10 players with double-digit home runs and that doesn’t include 21-year-old rookie outfielder Evan Carter. A second rounder out of a Tennessee high school in 2020, Carter went deep five times in 75 regular season plate appearances as a rookie and has a homer and two doubles in his first two playoff games. More important in the sweep of the Rays, the Rangers received excellent outings from starters Jordan Montgomery, who has been superb since arriving from St. Louis at the trade deadline, and Nathan Eovaldi, who has historically given the Orioles fits in his career (8-2, 3.23 ERA in 18 starts). If the offense can pile up runs and the Rangers rotation can solve an enigmatic and energetic Orioles lineup, it would take pressure off a Texas bullpen that had the 24th worst ERA in majors (4.77).
Orioles player to watch: RHP Kyle Bradish
Although Rutschman and Henderson get most of the attention, Bradish has been a primary reason why the club took a gigantic step in 2023. The 27-year-old, in his second season in the majors, made 30 starts, posted a 12-7 record and an outstanding 2.83 ERA while striking out 168 batters in 168 2/3 innings. Acquired by the Orioles from the Los Angeles Angels in a 2019 trade for Dylan Bundy, Bradish possesses an elite slider that he throws 31 percent of the time while mixing in a 95-mph fastball, a curveball, sinker and changeup with strong command. Expected to be the Game 1 starter, Bradish will also be in line for Game 4 or 5, if necessary.
Rangers player to watch: RHP José Leclerc
It might make more sense to choose a hitter like Carter, but there’s just an unshakable feeling, given these two teams, that several of these games will come down to the late innings. And that has been problematic for veteran manager Bruce Bochy. Leclerc isn’t necessarily the closer – the Rangers also have Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman – but he has been the club’s most effective late-inning reliever with a 2.68 ERA in 57 appearances. He finished both wins against the Rays and has allowed runs only three times in his past 16 appearances. Someone must anchor this unit in the playoffs, and it looks like that opportunity may fall to the 29-year-old Leclerc, who is in his seventh season in the big leagues but made his first postseason appearance this week.
Prediction: The Rangers are obviously feeling good after their sweep in Tampa, and the Orioles have had a layoff and could come out slow offensively. But if pitching and defense win titles, then the Orioles capture this series due to the bullpen advantage. Orioles in four.
(3) Minnesota Twins (87-75) at (2) Houston Astros (90-72)
First game: Saturday, 4:45 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
2023 head-to-head record: Twins, 4-2; 29-25 cumulative scoring in favor of Minnesota.
Odds to win series: Astros, -160; 62.8% probability to win.
How they got here: The Twins won a no-contest in the weak AL Central and then dismissed the visiting Blue Jays in consecutive games, 3-1 and 2-0. The Astros, the defending World Champions, hid in the AL West bushes until the last possible moment, winning the division and earning the second bye on the final day of the regular season.
Why this matchup is intriguing: Because it seems lopsided on paper, and certainly when it comes to name recognition. Yet the Twins, who had lost 18 straight playoff games, dispatched a talented Blue Jays quickly and have plenty of momentum. They also have a stout rotation but won’t be able to use Pablo López and Sonny Gray initially because they threw in the wild card series. Meanwhile, the Astros can roll out Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez for Games 1 and 2 at home. The Twins also bested the Astros in the season series.
Why Astros will win: Because they are the Astros, the defending champs with a tremendous amount of experience and talent. They had to deal with plenty of adversity this season, specifically due to key injuries, and still methodically won 90 games in a tough division. Kyle Tucker has emerged as the club’s best player this season, but you can’t ignore Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman or Jose Altuve when the bright lights are on. It would feel like a major upset if the Astros didn’t advance to another ALCS.
Why Twins will win: Because no one is expecting it, and that’s what makes the playoffs so much fun. I was surprised – and maybe it is East Coast bias – how easily the Twins handled an underachieving Blue Jays team. The Twins are balanced, can really pitch and, although they have no true banger, they have usable power throughout the lineup. It’s also a nice mix of veterans and youth, especially with rookie Royce Lewis potentially using this postseason as his breakout party.
Astros player to watch: RHP Cristian Javier
The guy is a head-scratcher. He was dominant last season, especially in the final two rounds of the playoffs. In his two starts against the New York Yankees in the 2022 ALCS and the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series, Javier was almost literally unhittable, yielding one hit in 5 1/3 innings versus the Yankees and none against the Phillies in six innings. He started off hot this season in April and May and then fell off a cliff in the summer, posting monthly ERAs of 5.79 in June, 6.86 in July and 6.17 in August. He was better down the stretch – 4.11 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in his final six starts – and would be a huge lift for the Astros if he can rekindle last year’s postseason form.
Twins player to watch: SS Carlos Correa
Lewis is the guy to watch for the rest of the postseason if the Twins advance, but how can you choose anyone else but Correa for this one? It’s not just because he was the linchpin in the Astros rebuild and helped them win the 2017 World Series. He’s also exceptionally important to this Twins team offensively and defensively. Correa has had a difficult season — .230/.312/.399 — on the heels of a disastrous offseason in which he ping-ponged around free agency. He’s dealt with plantar fasciitis in his left foot throughout the year. But we all know what he can do in the postseason, an .851 career OPS in 81 playoff games. And he was 3-for-7 with an RBI in the two wild-card games versus Toronto.
Prediction: The gut says the Twins are going to be that club that shocks the world and gets hot. But the mind keeps reminding me that the Astros win in October. Astros in five.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.