Trying to predict what will happen in the NFL from week to week is maddening.
Upsets occur every single weekend, yet it’s hard to predict which teams will rise to the occasion and which will fail miserably.
That said, these following favorites are in danger of losing this weekend, provided a few things fall into place for their underdog counterparts.
Buffalo Bills
The New York Giants head to Orchard Park to face Rex Ryan’s Bills, and this could be an ugly affair. Buffalo will be without its two top playmakers, as both running back LeSean McCoy and receiver Sammy Watkins have been ruled out with injuries. Still, the home team is favored to win by 5.5 points (oddsshark.com).
On the surface, this seems just. However, when one considers the Giants are two poor decisions removed from being 3-0, instead of 1-2, things begin to look a bit more promising for the visiting team in this upcoming in-state rivalry.
Eli Manning looked phenomenal against an underrated Washington defense last Thursday night, and receiver Rueben Randle showed he’s more than capable of being the No. 2 receiver opposite Odell Beckham Jr. The Giants don’t have the most exciting running game, but if Manning can continue to get rid of the ball on time — thus negating Buffalo’s pass-rushers — to his receivers, then New York will be able to outscore the depleted Bills offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Kansas City Chiefs come into this contest as three-point underdogs. Being the road team, essentially oddsmakers are saying the venue is the biggest difference between these two teams.
The Chiefs are desperate for a win after losing in devastating fashion to the Denver Broncos in Week 2 and then getting hammered by the red-hot Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football last week. At 1-2, Andy Reid’s team is on the ropes, but thankfully for the offense, Cincinnati’s pass defense isn’t nearly as dangerous as either of those two top teams.
On the other side, while it’s true Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been one of the top passers of the new season, he’s yet to face a defensive front like the one that’s coming for him this Sunday. Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and the rest of Kansas City’s front seven comprise one of the most dynamic pass-rushing units in the league. With cornerback Sean Smith returning to action from his three-game suspension, the Chiefs finally have a full contingency on the back end, as well.
Look for Cincinnati’s hot offense to cool down against Kansas City and for Alex Smith to break out of his mini-slump en route to a much-needed road win.
Atlanta Falcons
If Julio Jones were healthy for this contest, then there’s no chance I’m betting against the Falcons in this one. However, being that he’s not healthy, dealing with a toe injury, along with a tenuous hamstring, this is far from a lock even if Atlanta is being favored to win by five over the Houston Texans.
Arian Foster has looked “good” in practice and he could return to the starting lineup after missing the first three games with a groin injury. His presence all by itself gives Houston a better chance to win, as his ability to soften opposing defensive fronts allows the passing game to open up. On that front, quarterback Ryan Mallett is developing a rapport with DeAndre Hopkins, who is becoming one of the league’s top young receivers.
To be fair, Houston’s no lock to win this one on the road. Atlanta’s defense is much improved under new head coach Dan Quinn. That said, the return of Foster, combined with a gimpy Jones for the Falcons — along with an always dangerous J.J. Watt and his pal Jadeveon Clowney — could result in the first loss of the season for the rookie head coach.
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington hosts Philly in this NFC East rivalry, and if we’re being fair, this one’s a toss-up. Oddsmakers are giving the Eagles a three-point edge, but after the way Chip Kelly’s crew played the first two games of the season nobody really knows what to expect on Sunday.
Washington’s defense is sound up front and has an excellent chance of shutting down Philadelphia’s eerily-inept rushing attack. Should this occur, then does anyone have faith in quarterback Sam Bradford to win this one with his arm? In three games, he’s been downright atrocious, passing for 678 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
And, while it’s true his counterpart Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly the next Peyton Manning, Washington’s ground-and-pound rushing attack — featuring Alfred Morris and Matt Jones — should be able to make hay at home, despite the outstanding run defense of the Eagles. If Cousins manages to minimize his mistakes, then the home team will come away with the victory.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are hosting the up-and-coming Minnesota Vikings in Week 4 and are favored to win by a 4.5 points at home. And, while Denver would seem to be the overwhelming favorite for good reason, the Broncos do have a flaw that Minnesota can exploit.
The Vikings feature a dynamic defense that is sound in all three stages. The defensive line is adept at getting pressure on opposing passers — No. 4-ranked team via Pro Football Focus (subscription required) — which doesn’t bode well for Peyton Manning, who has already taken some big licks this season playing behind a porous offensive line. If Anthony Barr and Co. can continue to dominate up front, then Manning, who has been known to turn the ball over under pressure, could falter.
Another reason to believe the Vikings have a chance to win is, quite simply, Adrian Peterson, who is most certainly “back.”
“All Day” has been phenomenal since Week 1, rushing for 260 yards and two touchdowns the past couple of weeks. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner will use Peterson as a battering ram against Denver’s vaunted defense to give second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater a chance to make big plays downfield on play-action passes.
Many have predicted the Vikings would become a contender this year. This is the contest that propels them into that realm.