NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Projecting the men’s bracket as Selection Sunday approaches

With Selection Sunday less than two weeks away, four teams have seemingly solidified themselves as the NCAA Tournament’s top seeds: Houston, UConn, Purdue and Arizona.

The defending champion UConn Huskies are 26-3 and are confident they can repeat, even though they lost leading scorers Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. The Purdue Boilermakers, a No. 1 seed in the East Region last season, fell in the first round to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson last year. But the Boilermakers insist they are tournament-ready this time around.

The Houston Cougars are hungry for a trip to the Final Four after falling to Miami (FL) last year in the Sweet 16. The Cougars are poised to make another run at a title after adding LJ Cryer in the backcourt alongside Jamal Shead. And the Arizona Wildcats, the No. 2 seed in the South Region last year before falling to No. 15 Princeton in the first round, landed San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson and North Carolina transfer Caleb Love.

But as we all know, there’s more basketball to be played and nothing is guaranteed in March. 

We’ve aggregated metrics from varying sources across the college basketball world including: KenPom, T-Rank from Bart Torvik, ESPN’s BPI, ELO from Warren Nolan, ShotQuality, and, of course, the NCAA’s own NET Rankings.

There are some teams in places that ESPN’s Joe Lunardi doesn’t have them. Remember, we are only using numbers here.

This is a bracket that may never exist, but it illustrates where teams are at now. So, if you see a team that may seem underrated somewhere else, just know there’s at least one metric you can find to build a case around. Here is where we sit today:

First Four Out

Utah

Ohio St.

Texas A&M

Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Drake

Virginia Tech

Virginia

James Madison

South Region

1. Houston
2. Auburn
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Saint Mary’s
6. Florida
7. Dayton
8. Colorado
9. St. John’s
10. Northwestern
11. Utah St.
12. McNeese St.
13. App State
14. High Point
15. Eastern Washington
16. Norfolk St./Southern

Midwest Region

1. Purdue
2. Iowa St.
3. Creighton
4. BYU
5. Gonzaga
6. San Diego St.
7. Villanova
8. Florida Atlantic
9. TCU
10. South Carolina
11. Pittsburgh
12. Grand Canyon
13. Louisiana Tech
14. UNC Wilmington
15. Morehead St.
16. Eastern Kentucky/Merrimack

East Region

1. UConn
2. Alabama
3. UNC
4. Illinois
5. Kentucky
6. Texas
7. Wisconsin
8. Wake Forest
9. Texas Tech
10. Nevada
11. New Mexico/Iowa
12. Princeton
13. UC Irvine
14. Akron
15. Colgate
16. Quinnipiac

West Region

1. Arizona
2. Tennessee
3. Marquette
4. Baylor
5. Michigan St.
6. Clemson
7. Boise St.
8. Mississippi St.
9. Nebraska
10. Washington St.
11. Oklahoma/Colorado St.
12. Indiana St.
13. Vermont
14. Samford
15. Oakland
16. South Dakota St.

NCAA Tournament bids by conference