Look at the initial National League playoff seedings, and the argument can be made the remaining two teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies, shouldn’t have made it this far.
Consider the second-place Phillies (90-72) finished 14 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, and the second-place Diamondbacks (84-78) were 16 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Now, those division winners are home for the winter and whoever captures the NLCS between the Phillies and Diamondbacks will be in the World Series.
It’s a surprising story in Arizona; the Diamondbacks lost 110 games in 2021 and two years later are on the doorstep of the October (November) Classic.
But in Philadelphia?
Phillies fans will tell you they knew all along their boys would make another run in the postseason, just like they did last year when they reached the World Series. And they have, punctuated by dispatching the rival Braves in four games in an exciting NLDS.
If we didn’t know already, we certainly learned it this postseason: The MLB playoffs can be a crapshoot. Here’s a look at what we actually know and what could happen in this best-of-seven series.
(6) Arizona Diamondbacks at (4) Philadelphia Phillies
First game: Monday, 8:07 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
2023 head-to-head record: Phillies, 4-3; 44-34 cumulative scoring in favor of Philadelphia.
Odds to win series: Phillies, -180; 64.3% probability to win, according to BetOnline.ag.
How they got here: The Diamondbacks backed into the playoffs in the final weekend of the season, losing their final four but still qualifying as the sixth seed. They then swept the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers, not easy assignments. The Phillies earned the top NL Wild Card and then dismissed two division rivals, the Miami Marlins and the mighty Braves.
Why this matchup is intriguing: Because it is so unexpected. The NL had two, 100-win teams in this bracket as well as a Milwaukee Brewers club that may have the best overall pitching staff in the game. And they’ve all been dispatched by the Diamondbacks and Phillies. Maybe one of these clubs could have gotten hot and slipped in. But both? Should be interesting to see which one stays scalding.
Why the Diamondbacks will win: If the Phillies overlook them the way the Dodgers seemingly did. This isn’t a great Diamondbacks team, but it is a balanced one. They have two excellent starting pitchers in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, a solid offense that can run, hit and hit for power, an established closer in Paul Sewald and arguably baseball’s best defense. They don’t make a lot of mistakes with the baseball, and that keeps them hanging around.
Why the Phillies will win: Because they are on quite a roll. They just need to keep playing like they have this postseason: Contributions from the entire lineup, a trio of starters that have been nearly unhittable and a bullpen that came up nails in the NLDS clincher. When guys are healthy and motivated, this is an outstanding club. They’ve outscored their playoff opponents 31-10 in six games. Plus, Citizens Bank Park has the best postseason atmosphere in the game.
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Diamondbacks X-factor player: OF Corbin Carroll
I hate to recycle my answer from the NLDS. But Carroll is a gem. This seems ridiculously premature to write given that the Phillies have Harper and Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto. But it wouldn’t be surprising if one day Carroll is considered the best all-around player to have appeared in this series. As a 23-year-old rookie, he is that good. This is his first postseason, and Carroll has a 1.389 OPS in five games.
Phillies X-factor player: 1B Bryce Harper
Seriously, could it be anyone else? Love him. Hate him. Doesn’t matter. It’s hard to take your eyes off the guy. When the postseason lights go on, they shine brightest on Harper. He reminds me of Jose Bautista with more charm and ability. Harper could go away in this series and the Phillies still would be talented enough to win. But we all know Harper won’t. He’ll likely be in the middle of everything.
Prediction: I’m on the Phillies bandwagon now. I thought they were the most dangerous wild card club in the tournament, I just didn’t think they’d get past Atlanta again. Now that they have, if they play like they did against the Braves, the Phillies should cruise to the World Series. Phillies in five.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.