Two weekends of games are all that’s left between now and the playoffs, and plenty has yet to be decided heading into NFL Week 16.
Five of the six teams we’re putting on upset alert this weekend are still alive for postseason play. Some just aren’t very good relative to the other great teams at the top of their conferences. Others are just unfortunate enough to be playing against teams that might just be a little bit hotter.
These are the teams we are putting on upset alert in NFL Week 16.
Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (-11.5)
Last time these teams played, Tyrod Taylor struggled, then got hurt. Without him in the lineup the bills were helpless to put points on the board has rookie Nathan Peterman couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn with a handful of rice.
The Bills were able to run the ball at will. And defensively, Buffalo kept Tom Brady from throwing a single touchdown and turned him over on a Tre’Davious White interception.
Given the extra motivation the Bills have, what with Rob Gronkowski having issued a dirty shot against White in that last game, we’d be shocked if Buffalo didn’t at least make it very close as it fights for its playoff life Sunday. Don’t be surprised if the Bills do some damage on both sides of the ball en route to a victory.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-6)
The Saints are really darn good, but they’ve already been beaten once by these Dirty Birds in 2017. And remarkably, the Falcons won that game — just two weeks back — on a night in which Matt Ryan was forced into three interceptions and was off much of the night.
Defense was the name of the game for the Falcons, who took advantage of Alvin Kamara being taken out early with a concussion. Drew Brees had to throw the ball on most offensive plays for the Saints, and in the end he threw the game away on a potential game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
If Mohamad Sanu and Julio Jones can have another big game like they did last time around, and if Ryan can keep from turning the ball over, we could see another big win for the Falcons, who are still in line to win the NFC South by winning out this season.
Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This seems like a stretch. And maybe it is. After all, Cincinnati appeared to completely give up on Marvin Lewis last Sunday after reports broke that the coach would be leaving the team following the 2017 season.
Still, in addition to that drama the Bengals were also without some of their top players last weekend. They’ll be getting linebacker Vontaze Burfict and running back Joe Mixon back this Sunday at home against Detroit, which hasn’t exactly been on fire of late. The Lions have won two games in a row, but they were unable to overpower the likes of Chicago and Tampa Bay in those victories and lost two in a row prior to those bottom-of-the-barrel opponents.
If Geno Atkins and Co. can beat up on Detroit’s offensive line, pressuring Matthew Stafford into a mistake or two, the Bengals could scrounge up a win at home this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
On paper, the Jaguars should wipe the floor with the 49ers Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. Except for one pesky problem, that is. Jimmy Garoppolo is suddenly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he just shredded the Tennessee Titans for nearly 400 yards a week ago.
Heck, even Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone called Jimmy G the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.
We’d be remiss if we didn’t point out that Blake Bortles (gasp!) has also been on a red-hot tear in recent weeks. He’s yet to throw an interception in the month of December and is coming off maybe his best game of the season against Houston. Also, Jacksonville’s defense is undeniably in a class of its own in terms of pressuring quarterbacks and forcing mistakes.
Still, we cannot help but wonder what kind of magic Garoppolo will pull out of his hat this weekend. If he can play keep-away from the Jags’ talented corners, then the 49ers might actually have a legit chance to win their fourth game in a row.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Everyone wants to point to Todd Gurley shredding Seattle’s defense as a reason why Dallas will win Sunday at home against Seattle. And that might be valid. Ezekiel Elliott is coming into the game rested up after spending the past six weeks training in Cabo San Lucas, and he looks absolutely ripped.
Jerry Jones said the ‘Boys will feed Zeke somewhere around 20-25 times this upcoming game. And if Seattle’s defense gets pushed around this weekend like it did last Sunday, then Elliott should romp, much the same way Gurley did for the Los Angeles Rams.
However, there are two main reasons why we’re not convinced the same thing will happen this time around: K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. Wagner was limping around on a tweaked hamstring last weekend but is healthy heading into Sunday’s game. Wright didn’t even play last Sunday due to a concussion but is ready to rock and roll again. These two linebackers are difference-makers, both against the run and pass.
Also, Dallas doesn’t have the kind of defensive line Los Angeles does, meaning Russell Wilson should rebound nicely.
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals (3.5)
Two under-performing teams meeting up in a meaningless game. So, unless you’re a fan of the Giants or Cardinals, or have a betting interest in this game, there’s not a lot of reasons to pay attention. Still, we’re talking upsets, so this game matters.
Arizona will be starting Drew Stanton after Blaine Gabbert finally showed himself to be incapable of ball security, once again. Stanton is not an upgrade, mind you. In his entire career, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. So anyone expecting the Cardinals to have an offensive explosion this weekend should temper expectations.
The Giants are on a four-game losing streak but have been awfully competitive since Ben McAdoo was fired. Eli Manning and Co. nearly beat the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, and Manning himself had a very nice game throwing three touchdowns.
Simply put, in this upcoming game we trust Manning more than we trust Stanton. The Giants should win.