The 2017 World Series is set. For the first time since 1970, the Fall Classic will match up two teams that won 100 or more games. In the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, we have a true clash of the champions.
What are the main storylines to follow as we get ready for the series?
Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander are both looking to reverse some negative history. One team’s lead-off man is coming in red hot. The other’s is coming in ice cold. Los Angeles enters with a question mark around its starting shortstop. Houston, conversely, enters with questions around most of its pitching.
As if that wasn’t enough, both Dodgers and Astros need to overcome a recent trend to win.
These are the main storylines to follow in the 2017 World Series.
Clayton Kershaw on the biggest stage
Kershaw’s 2017 postseason has been more than good enough. His 3.63 ERA is far from great, but the Dodgers are 3-0 in his starts and he sports a personal 2-0 record. Now, he’s pitching in a spot he’s never pitched before — the World Series.
We’d probably have to go back to Barry Bonds in 2002 to find a World Series where one player had a greater spotlight on him. While his team didn’t win, Bonds performed well in that World Series. It’s important that Kershaw does the same here.
If Kershaw pitches well — especially if Los Angeles wins — then the “Kershaw is a choker” narrative will be buried. How often do we talk about the early career big game struggles of John Elway, Peyton Manning, or LeBron James anymore? Winning erases that.
Pitching poorly and losing, on the other hand, will only make that narrative louder than it’s ever been before.
Kershaw will be 30 next year. Injuries have kept him from making more than 27 starts in each of the last two and three of the last four seasons. Also, while the Dodgers are set up well to contend for years, that does nothing to guarantee future postseason success. Ask the Washington Nationals.
This could be Kershaw’s only chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. If he does, narratives that have followed him for so long will go away forever.
Can the Astros’ bullpen hold up?
The postseason has been dominated by short outings and good bullpens. That trend seems to have missed Houston. Part of that is because the Astros have had their starters go longer into games than other teams. But another inescapable element is that the Houston bullpen has struggled.
In the postseason, the Astros’ relievers have yielded a 5.03 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. As a comparison, the Los Angeles bullpen is at a 0.94 ERA and 0.49 WHIP. Sadly for Houston, it gets worse.
The Astros’ bullpen has had a particularly hard time on the road. Away from Minute Maid Park, the Houston relievers have a 7.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. As we’ll soon detail, the Astros are going to have to win at least one game at Dodger Stadium.
Now, the other end of that is that Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander are scheduled to go in Games 1 and 2. If Houston holds to its normal rotation, that would mean Verlander in Game 6. So, if those two can go deep into their games, you’d only be looking at a heavy bullpen game in Las Angeles in Game 7.
That’s true. But you can’t rely on blowouts in the World Series, especially on the road. So, even if Keuchel and Verlander get through seven with leads, it will still be on the bullpen to nurse what will likely be close leads for two innings. Additionally, while one of the charms of National League Ball is that you don’t have to face opposing pitchers, that can also work to Houston’s disadvantage.
In a close game, A.J. Hinch may feel obligated to pinch hit for Keuchel or Verlander in Los Angeles earlier in the game. So, even if they’re pitching well, seven innings is far from a guarantee.
The bottom line is that the Astros aren’t going to be able to hide their bullpen. If they’re going to win this World Series, the relievers will have to be much better.
Health of Corey Seager
The recent news has been good with Seager. Dave Roberts has indicated recently that Seager is swinging well. So, if nothing else, he can pinch hit and then DH when the series shifts to Houston.
But, how sharp will he be? Seager hasn’t played since the Dodgers wrapped up the NLDS on October 9. That’s a break of more than two weeks. Also, will he hold up? It’s one thing to take batting practice and play in some simulated games. It’s quite another to play in a real game, let alone the World Series.
Finally, while it would be nice to have Seager as a pinch hitter and DH in the American League park, it’s still far from ideal. Seager is one of the best players on the team. Los Angeles wants him out there for every game of the series.
If Seager is out there, that can more than make up for any dip in production that people like Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig and Chris Taylor may suffer from after monster NLCS performances. If he’s not, then the Dodgers have to hope that those people continue to play at their previous levels. That’s certainly possible, but not what a team wants to depend on.
An immense home field advantage
For the first time since 2012, the World Series is beginning in the National League park. Recent history says that that is a big advantage for the Dodgers.
Since 1995 (the first postseason with Wild Cards), teams with home field advantage are 16-6 in the World Series. Only one of those six teams to win without home field was an American League team. To be fair, part of that is opportunity. Home field advantage was determined by the All-Star Game from 2003-2016 and the junior circuit won all but three of those games. So, the American League has only had seven chances (1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2010-2012) to win without home field advantage in that timeframe.
Still, the lack of a DH in Games 1, 2, 6, and 7 will be a disadvantage to Houston.
A normal Astros’ lineup will include Brian McCann or Evan Gattis at catcher, and then either the other one or Carlos Beltran at DH. Barring a radical shift, only one of those three will be in the lineup in Los Angeles.
Additionally, the Dodgers were a league best 57-24 at home during the regular season and are 4-0 at Chavez Ravine in the postseason. Conversely, while Houston had a 53-28 road record during the season, the Astros are 1-4 away from Minute Maid Park in the playoffs.
These are all rather significant obstacles that Houston will have to overcome at least once to win the World Series.
Chris Taylor continuing to set the table
The Dodgers are 7-1 in the postseason. As such, they’ve had many heroes. But offensively, it’s hard to single anyone out above Taylor. Given that Justin Turner has been hitting at an unconscious level, how can we single Taylor out as the main hero?
While Turner has slashed at .387/.500/.667 with three home runs in the playoffs, the number that really stands out is 12 RBI. He’s been hitting at a staggering level, but the hitters in front of him have done their part in making sure that Turner’s hits have done damage.
That’s where Taylor comes in. He’s slashed at .281/.410/.594 in the postseason. In the NLCS, Taylor also slashed at .316/.458/.789, earning co-MVP honors with Turner.
If Taylor continues to get on base at a .400-plus clip, then Los Angeles becomes nearly impossible to contain. Shutting the likes of Turner, Cody Bellinger and Yasiel Puig down is possible, but it’s highly unlikely. It’s much more possible to face those guys with empty bases, minimizing the damage that they do inflict. If Taylor is getting on base at that rate, both him and his team are going to score a lot of runs.
Consistency of Astros 3-4 starters
Keuchel and Verlander have been spectacular in the postseason. As starters, those two have combined to post a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Those two will likely combine for four starts. Theoretically, all Houston has to do is win those four games to win the World Series. But blemishes can happen, especially against a lineup as potent as the one the Dodgers feature. We also have to remember that Keuchel will likely be matched up against Kershaw twice. So, winning those two games is far from a guarantee.
As such, the rest of the starters will have to come through. During the postseason, those starters have posted a less than spectacular 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. They’ve certainly had their moments. Lance McCullers Jr. has been spectacular as a starter and reliever. Charlie Morton was fantastic in Game 7 of the ALCS.
The Astros are going to have to see the good versions of those guys in Games 3, 4, and possibly 7.
Dodgers bid to overcome the curse of clinching first
Clinching first would seem to be advantage. With four days off, the Dodgers will be well rested in Game 1 and will get to set their pitching rotation however they want. The Astros, conversely, will get only two days off and won’t be able to throw Verlander until Game 2.
So, advantage Los Angeles, right? Actually, recent history says that while home field advantage works for the Dodgers, the timing of the clinches works in Houston’s favor. Each of the last eight Fall Classics (as well as 10 of the last 11) has been won by the team that clinched its pennant second. The Philadelphia Phillies’ 2008 triumph over the Tampa Bay Rays is the lone exception.
We understand randomness is always a big factor in the playoffs. But this is too big of a sample size to dismiss as purely coincidental. Resting for four days is good, but it’s also significantly different than what MLB players are used to doing.
Until the early pennant winners (like Los Angeles) can break this trend, it’s going to be a big part of the World Series every year
George Springer trying to break his slump
While Taylor has thrived at the top of the Dodgers’ order, the man at the top of the Astros’ order has struggled. Springer is .233/.327/.349 during the playoffs and was .115/.233/.115 in the ALCS.
Houston’s order is very much like LA’s. Shutting down guys like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa is only possible in theory, especially when they’re coming in as hot as they are right now. But in order for those guys have be completely effective, they need to have men on base.
That’s where Springer comes in. Springer hit .283/.367/.522 with 34 home runs during the regular season. So, when he gets going, he’s as good as anyone.
He just needs to be that guy during the World Series.
Will good Yasiel Puig continue to show up?
The 2017 season has given us a lot of the good version of Puig. He’s hit at .414/.514/.655 in the playoffs, was .389/.500/.611 in the NLCS, and .263/.346/.487 with 28 home runs during the regular season.
When Puig hits that well, he adds depth to the Los Angeles order and makes it something that opposing pitchers see in their nightmares.
Puig has been an enigma through his career. He’s had many great moments and when he’s great, he’s one of baseball’s best players. But Puig has also had many slumps, both physical and mental. When those happen, he can be one of the worst in baseball.
The good news for the Dodgers is that that version hasn’t shown up a lot this year. The good version is the one that Los Angeles will need to see against Houston.
Justin Verlander’s chance at World Series redemption
Kershaw is not the only future Hall of Fame pitcher trying to erase a poor narrative.
Verlander reached two World Series in his days with the Detroit Tigers. Neither went terribly well.
In 2006, he posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in two starts against the St. Louis Cardinals. He started Game 1 of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants, allowing five earned runs with six hits and one walk in four innings. All three starts were losses, and his team lost both World Series.
Verlander will take the ball in Game 2 of the series this year. He’ll either have a chance to send the Astros back to Houston with a 2-0 lead, or he will be needed to prevent an 0-2 deficit. He’d also start a Game 6 with a chance to either win or prolong the series.
While he’s still very good and on a team well positioned to contend for a while, Verlander will be 35 on Opening Day next year. We don’t know how many more opportunities he’ll get on this stage.
Prediction
Both teams are loaded. It wouldn’t be surprising to see either team win this.
With that said, the advantages seem to be going the Dodgers’ way. They’re coming in a little hotter, have the better bullpen, the more reliable starting rotation and the home field advantage.
It wouldn’t be the upset of the century for the Astros to win this series. But we like Los Angeles in six.