The Super Bowl is almost here. For fans of the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, it’s a nervous time. For everyone else, it’s time to take a good look at Super Bowl prop bets.
The first wave of them have come out, and as expected, some are a lot more interesting than others. Those ones grab our attention.
What might Lady Gaga do during the halftime show? What about Luke Bryan during the national anthem? Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will be on the broadcast for FOX. What might me expect them to talk about? Most importantly, what kind of look will Bill Belichick be sporting?
What are the most interesting prop bets for Super Bowl LI and what do we think of them?
Odds on what color hoodie Bill Belichick wears
- Blue: 4/11
- Grey: 3/1
- Red: 40/1
- Field: 50/1
Analysis: Right off of the bat, let’s eliminate two options. According to Patspropaganda.com, Belichick hasn’t worn red since losing Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants nine years ago. He hasn’t worn anything other than blue, grey, or red since 2003. So, while either red or the field would provide a nice payout, it’s probably best to stay away.
Throughout the 2016 season, blue has been Belichick’s color of choice. He wore it 13 times during the regular season and in both playoff wins. On the other hand, having to bet $11 to win $4 is not desirable. That leaves grey at 3/1 as the best value bet.
Just do us all a favor and be calm with it. Having to explain that that you lost your family’s savings betting on Bill Belichick’s hoodie would result in being permanently relegated to the couch — if not the front porch.
Odds on the first deflategate reference by Joe Buck/Troy Aikman (or sideline reporters)
- 1st quarter: 7/4
- 2nd quarter: 5/3
- 3rd quarter: 5/1
- 4th quarter: 8/1
Analysis: The 7/4 odds may push you away, but anything other than the first quarter is just throwing money away. At some point in the first quarter, the New England offense is going to take the field for the first time. That will give Buck or Aikman the perfect chance to see “Here come the Patriots, led by Tom Brady, who missed the first four games of the season serving a suspension for deflategate,” or something very similar.
It’s inevitable.
While we’re on the subject of deflategate, let’s talk about how absurd it is to use of the word “gate” to describe nearly any scandal.
First, the Watergate Scandal was more than 40 years ago. I’d like to believe that we’re a little more creative than this.
Second, the scandal that eventually led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon started when the Watergate Complex in Washington D.C. was broken into. The scandal itself had nothing to do with water. Recent sports scandals like “spygate,” “bountygate,” and now “deflategate” had to do with spying, bounties, and deflating footballs. There’s nothing about the word “gate” that’s scandalous.
Rant over. Let’s move on.
Odds Lady Gaga sings
- Bad Romance: 1/1
- Born This Way: 13/2
- Edge of Glory: 10/1
- Poker Face: 22/1
- Paparazzi: 30/1
- Perfect Illusion: 35/1
- Million Reasons: 40/1
- Field: 4/1
Analysis: Be careful betting on any song with overtly adult themes or suggestive language. It’s been broken before (most famously with Janet Jackson in the same stadium), but the NFL likes to keep the Super Bowl family friendly.
Also, don’t bet on anything more than three, maybe four Lady Gaga songs actually being sung. The halftime show is not very long and usually at least a few songs are truncated, anyway. Additionally, the main performer usually brings a guest or two out and naturally, the guest will sing a song of his/hers. “Bad Romance” and “Born This Way” are probably the safest bets. Anything else is pretty random.
Okay, now let’s get into the game itself.
Over/under on the length of Luke Bryan’s national anthem: 1 minute, 58 seconds
Analysis: Maybe we’ll get to the game on the next one.
Bryan topped two minutes at the 2012 MLB All-Star Game. The Super Bowl is an even bigger stage, making him even more likely to milk it.
Additionally, in that 2012 performance, Bryan was caught with a cheat sheet checking the lyrics (which, by the way, is another prop bet). If he’s checking the lyrics, it indicates that he may be a little more prone to nerves, or at least worried about getting nervous.
When you’re nervous, the best thing to do is slow down. So, the slower anthem on the big stage sure seems like the better play.
Odds to have the most receiving yards
- Julio Jones: 8/5
- Julian Edelman: 5/1
- Chris Hogan: 7/1
- Mohamed Sanu: 7/1
- Martellus Bennett: 10/1
- Taylor Gabriel: 10/1
- Field: 15/1
Analysis: Jones is one of the most physically gifted receivers that the NFL has ever seen and went for 180 yards in the NFC Championship Game. So, he seems like a logical play. But the value isn’t great, especially when we consider the man dialing up the opposing defense.
Belichick’s strategy is to take the other team’s best option away. The Patriots will not shut Jones, down, but he’ll see a heavy dose of Malcolm Butler, and probably numerous double teams, daring Matt Ryan to go elsewhere. Atlanta has an abundance of weapons. So Ryan will certainly have other places to look.
The Green Bay Packers didn’t have anyone who could neutralize Jones. But the week before against the Seattle Seahawks, Jones had only 67 yards, good enough for third on the team.
Additionally, New England has plenty of options, too. Edelman topped 100 yards in each of his team’s two playoff games. Hogan had 95 in the divisional round, then exploded for 180 in the AFC Championship Game.
The best play is on one of those guys, Sanu, or Gabriel. Jones is the best receiver in the game, but it may not show up in yardage.
Odds of Joe Buck being clean shaven for the Super Bowl Broadcast: 10/1
Analysis: It’s tempting, I know. A $10 bet can win $100 if Buck wakes up in his Houston hotel room on Super Bowl Sunday and decides its time for the razor.
But these are some objective facts. Buck has been sporting a beard for a while, including the entire postseason. He’s also a married man. If he’s decided recently that a beard is the way to go, chances are good that his wife has given her approval.
He’s not going to all of a sudden throw a change-up on Super Bowl Sunday. If he’s rolling with a beard, it means his wife likes it. If his wife likes it, he’s not changing the look in a matter of weeks.
The odds may make this one look somewhat tempting, but stay away. A clean shaven Buck is a sucker’s bet.
Over/Under Troy Aikman references to one of his Super Bowl games: 1.5
Analysis: This one really boils do a simple question. Who do you like in this game?
If you think the Patriots will win, take the under.
If however, you think that the Falcons will win (especially in semi-convincing fashion), the over is the way to go. Should Atlanta win, much of the fourth quarter will be spent with sideline shots, especially on Matt Ryan. When those happen, Aikman is far more likely to hearken back to Super Bowl XXVII, when his Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills for the first of his three championships.
Aikman never lost a Super Bowl, so he won’t have the experience to relate to the sideline shots of the losing team.
Additionally, a New England victory would mean a fifth Super Bowl for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The nostalgic recollections of Aikman’s own championship days would seem a little more out of place.
Odds of Lady Gaga making an anti-Trump political statement during her performance (visual or vocal): 10/13
Analysis: If the Super Bowl was played in March or later, maybe not. But it’s only two weeks after the inauguration of President Donald Trump. So, it will be fresh.
A statement may be more subtle, like Beyonce’s in Super Bowl 50. But it’s hard to imagine that something won’t happen here.
When it comes to controversy, Lady Gaga is usually not shy. She may be a bit more tame on Super Bowl Sunday. Still, it’s hard to imagine her not finding a way to target the president in some way.