Rachel Wold
After four thrilling months of competition, NFL Wild Card weekend is upon us and offers viewers a few teams that haven’t visited the postseason in years.
According to Pro Football Reference, the four road teams are favored to win. The four hosts — each winners of division titles — might have something different to say about that.
By the end of the day on Sunday, we’ll see which teams prevail and advance one game closer to an appearance in Super Bowl 50.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
The weather forecast calls for ideal, sunny conditions at kickoff for the fifth-seeded Chiefs — winners of 10 in a row — to face the AFC South-champion Texans at NRG Stadium. When the teams met in Week 1, Kansas City came out on top 27-20.
Saturday’s game will pit the NFL’s leading sack-master J.J. Watt (17.5) against quarterback Alex Smith, who endured the third-most sacks (45) in 2015. Of all starting quarterbacks, though Smith ranks at the top with only seven turnovers for the whole season.
Overall, Houston may struggle forcing takeaways on a Chiefs team that has given the ball up only 15 times this year.
Throughout the course of the season, Smith has distributed the football quickly and showed his speed should not be underestimated. Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce have played leading roles in Smith’s success while Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware have done an superb job guiding the Chiefs’ sixth-ranked rushing attack.
Meanwhile, Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been an absolute animal on the field. His ability to catch touchdowns (11 total) while blanketed by defenders has been remarkable despite the revolving door of quarterbacks. Hopkins will need to keep up his elite play against cornerback Marcus Peters, who has a tremendous eight interceptions as a rookie.
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Even if Hopkins works his magic through the air, Houston’s rushing offense that has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns may continue struggling without Arian Foster.
The Chiefs haven’t proceeded past a Wild Card game since 2003. The Texans can earn their third trip to the Divisional Round matchup since 2002.
Win probability: Kansas City, 58 percent
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
It could be a soggy game when the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to battle the AFC North-champion Cincinnati Bengals in Saturday’s second wild-card tilt.
Although the Bengals are preparing to start A.J. McCarron due to Andy Dalton’s likely absence,the Steelers will need to bring their “A-game” to the table.
Still freshly etched in our heads was the head-scratching loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. Ben Roethlisberger threw two interceptions and failed to score a touchdown against the league’s worst secondary.
Big Ben and his typically fantastic receiving crew will oppose a Bengals defense that has allowed only 18 passing touchdowns all year. Roethlisberger had only one touchdown compared to four picks in two regular-season meetings with Cincinnati.
The Steelers are also dealing with questionable status of running back DeAngelo Williams, who is considered day-to-day but unlikely to play. If Williams sits out, Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman will be the featured backs. Unfortunately, the team is a long way removed from Le’Veon Bell.
On the Bengals side of the field, it shouldn’t be too hard to exploit Pittsburgh’s 30th-ranked pass defense that has allowed A.J. Green to torch the secondary for a total 17 catches, 250 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Meanwhile, both teams could be challenged to gain momentum and score on the ground, considering Pittsburgh’s and Cincinnati’s fifth- and seventh-ranked rush defenses, respectively. The Steelers have allowed only six rushing touchdowns compared to the Bengals’ eight.
This is the Pittsburgh’s third wild-card appearance since their Super Bowl-winning 2010 season. Cincinnati has reached the playoffs in four straight years during the Dalton era but bowed out in the wild-card round each time.
Win probability: Pittsburgh, 57 percent
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
In what will be a literally freezing afternoon at TCF Bank Stadium and its below-zero forecast, the sixth-seeded Seattle Seahawks will be facing a Minnesota Vikings, who claimed the NFC North title.
Entering Sunday’s game, though, Russell Wilson’s Seahawks are heavily favored over Minnesota. That is surely based on Week 13 when Seattle recorded a 38-7 blowout road win over the hapless Vikings. That day, Minnesota mustered a pitiful total of 125 offensive yards and scored only a return touchdown by Cordarrelle Patterson.
This week, the Vikings’ biggest key to success is their defense stopping Wilson and the Seahawks fourth-ranked offense from scoring. This is obviously much easier said than done, considering Seattle pelted Minnesota for 433 yards and five touchdowns a few weeks ago.
Additionally, the Seahawks expect Marshawn Lynch, who missed the earlier meeting, to be back.
.@MoneyLynch back for @Seahawks' playoff game?
REMINDER: SIX defenders are needed to take down BeastMode. https://t.co/CdjwzLClhE
— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2016
However, Seattle’s offensive line will have to protect Wilson. The St. Louis Rams racked up four sacks, 13 hits and forced two turnovers on Wilson and Co. during the regular-season finale.
As for the Vikings’ best offensive weapon Adrian Peterson, he managed only 18 rushing yards on eight attempts against Seattle. Todd Gurley just rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. If another running back is capable of cracking Seattle’s resilient rush defense, Peterson is the man.
Granted, Teddy Bridgewater must establish a passing attack to keep pressure off Peterson. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Bridgewater finished 17-of-28 for a measly 118 yards in Week 13.
A victory for the Seahawks would keep the dream of a third consecutive Super Bowl a reality, while a win for Minnesota puts the franchise one step closer to a place it hasn’t been since the 1976 season.
Win probability: Seattle, 63 percent
Green Bay Packers at Washington, Sunday, 4:40 p.m ET
Washington’s quarterback Kirk Cousins has finally accomplished what Robert Griffin III failed to do after his 2012 rookie campaign. The NFC East champions will host the Green Bay Packers at FedEx Field when rain could muddy up the field.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, despite entering the contest coming off embarrassing back-to-back losses with a total of 21 points, have a slight advantage over Washington. Greeen Bay should find success against a rush defense that has allowed 122.6 yards per game at 4.8 per carry.
However, Rodgers has notched only three touchdowns in the last three games and hasn’t thrown for more than 300 yards since Week 10.
Atrocious pass-protection is to blame, since Rodgers has taken 14 sacks during the losses. Washington defensive back DeAngelo Hall said the defense plans to attack that shaky line, per Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today.
“There are really no weaknesses from [Rodgers]. The weaknesses just come from protecting him. We feel like if we can get guys around him, always in his face and harassing him, maybe he can make a mistake or two. And then maybe we can capitalize on it. But definitely when they have gotten beaten.”
Green Bay’s sixth-ranked pass defense will try to limit Washington’s aerial attack and key red-zone threat Jordan Reed, but Cousins has been amazing lately. He’s led Washington to four consecutive wins while passing for 12 touchdowns and running for two more.
The struggling Packers must regroup, lest their seventh straight trip to the postseason end swiftly. Washington hasn’t appeared in the Divisional Round since 2005.
Win probability: Green Bay, 53 percent
