The MLB season always offers some surprises in the early going. The 2018 season has been no different. Some of those surprises, like the performance of Atlanta Braves outfielder Ryan Flaherty, have been good. Others, like the ones we’re going over here, have been less than ideal.
New York outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Giancarlo Stanton have each had forgettable Aprils in the Big Apple. Ryan Zimmerman was one of the biggest positive surprises for the 2017 Washington Nationals. Unfortunately, he’s been one of the more negative surprises in 2018.
Is always a little unfair to grade pitchers this early in the year. But Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, and Julio Teheran have struggled in a way that we can’t really ignore or simply chalk up to typical early season struggles.
All of these stars have more than five months to get things in the right direction. But while time is on their side, they’ve all experienced significant struggles in April.
Yoenis Cespedes, left fielder, New York Mets
The first six games of the season were fantastic for Cespedes. While his .273 batting average wasn’t anything spectacular, he hit three home runs, sported a .407 OBP, .682 slugging percentage, and a 1.089 OPS. Over his next 10 games, though, things didn’t go nearly as well. In that stretch, Cespedes hit .167/.186/.190 with no home runs and only one extra-base hit of any kind. He also struck out 18 times in 42 at-bats over that stretch, which translates to 292 Ks over a full season.
The good news for the Mets is that Cespedes is showing some signs of coming out of it. He was 2-for-5 with a grand slam in Wednesday’s win over the Washington Nationals. Additionally, like many players from the Caribbean, Cespedes has traditionally played his best baseball in the warmer months. Clearly, the beginning of the 2018 season has seen a lot of cold weather, especially in the Eastern U.S., but warmer days are ahead.
Still, a quick, consistent turnaround is needed. New York has had a fantastic start to the year, while Washington has been uneven. If the Nats can hang with the Mets through the early-year struggles, there’s no reason to think that they won’t pull away in time. They have the more complete roster. New York needs to create significant separation against Washington in the early part of the year. For that to be created and sustained, Cespedes will need to elevate his game.
Julio Teheran, starting pitcher, Atlanta Braves
There’s some good news and some bad news. The good news is that Teheran generally pitches fine away from home. The bad news is that his struggles at SunTrust Park are immense and worse, not limited to the still small sample size of 2018.
In 2017, Teheran posted a 5.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home, while allowing 17 home runs in 17 starts over 93.2 innings. As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only gotten worse in 2018. In three home starts this season, Teheran sports a 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and has allowed five home runs in only three games over 14 innings.
Certainly SunTrust Park is more hitter friendly than Turner Field. So, most pitchers probably have inferior numbers in Atlanta’s new home when compared to its old one. But Teheran’s struggles are a little too deep to simply chalk up to a more hitter-friendly environment. Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. As long as he remains with Atlanta, he’ll take roughly half of his starts at SunTrust Field. He’ll need to elevate his game when taking the mound there.
Alex Bregman, third baseman, Houston Astros
Bregman played his first year in 2017. As the league is getting more used to him, Bregman is definitely experiencing some growing pains.
If there’s something to be encouraged about, Bregman is making contact and drawing a decent number of walks. Unfortunately, all that’s amounted to is a .214/.321/.300 slash line. So, when he hits the ball, he’s obviously not making enough contact to get hits. Heck, even the balls that drop aren’t finding holes. Bregman has only one home run and four extra-base hits.
The Astros have started the year well. Still, that’s something that we can chalk up more to Houston’s pitching than its bats. The Astros have many great hitters, but Bregman is definitely a spark in that lineup. His turnaround will be vital in getting the champ’s offense back to where it was a year ago.
Adam Duvall, left fielder, Cincinnati Reds
While we weren’t exactly expecting 3-15, the Reds being bad isn’t a complete surprise. What is surprising, however, is that through 18 games, Cincinnati has scored only 54 runs. Only the Kansas City Royals (51) and San Francisco Giants (50) have scored fewer, while the Minnesota Twins are even with the Reds. It’s worth noting that Cincinnati has played more games than San Francisco (17), Kansas City (16), and Minnesota (13). No one person gets exclusive blame for this. But Duvall’s struggles have certainly not helped the cause.
Duvall, who hit .245/.299/.489 and averaged 32 home runs over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, has scuffled to a .175/.221/.381 line. While Duvall has never been a high average or OBP guy, the dip in power is most troubling. Three home runs and a .381 slugging percentage is just not good enough for a guy who’s topped 30 home runs in each of the last two years.
Duvall isn’t the only Reds player in need of a turnaround. But it’s tough to imagine things getting a whole lot better in Cincinnati without Duvall reverting to his 2016 and 2017 form.
Chris Davis, first baseman, Baltimore Orioles
We can’t forget about Baltimore while we’re on the subject of teams with shockingly bad offenses. The Orioles have scored only 58 runs on the young season. That’s fewer runs than the Miami Marlins, a National League team that is not even trying to win and has played one fewer game than the Orioles. Not unlike Cincinnati, the problem goes beyond one man. But Davis certainly shoulders his share of the blame.
Davis did homer on Thursday. The bad news is that it was only his second of the year. He’s hitting only .150/.261/.267. The average and OBP are down, for sure. Still, they’re not the real problem. The bigger issue is that David — who’s averaged 34 home runs a year since hitting 53 in 2013 — is just not generating any real power.
The Orioles are off to a dismal start. That’s only going to precipitate a fire sale in Baltimore. If the players on the team want to prevent that, they’ll need to start scoring runs at a much greater clip. For that to happen, getting Davis’ power stroke back will be an integral step in the process.
Andrew McCutchen, right fielder, San Francisco Giants
The acquisitions of McCutchen and Evan Longoria were two of the primary reasons that the Giants were expected to be better in 2018 in 2017. But both men have struggled in the early going. As such, San Francisco has looked a lot like it did a season ago. Longoria has shown signs of coming out of his early season funk. McCutchen, though, is still looking to find his consistent stroke.
While Cutch has two dramatic walk-off hits on the young season, he’s struggled. He’s hitting .209/.284/.328 with two home runs, nine runs scored, and eight RBI. And while those numbers are by no means good, even they are deceptively high. In one game, McCutchen went 6-for-7 with a home run, two runs scored, and four RBI. In a nutshell, that means that in 16 of his 17 games, McCutchen has hit .133/.224/.200 with one home run, seven runs scored, and four RBI.
There’s definitely ample room to improve. That’s good, because McCutchen needs to turn things around in a big way.
Yu Darvish, starting pitcher, Chicago Cubs
Darvish was signed by the Cubs to add depth in the rotation and make up for the loss of Jake Arrieta. That all may happen at some point. It just hasn’t happened yet.
While he does have one very strong outing against the Milwaukee Brewers mixed in, Darvish has posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. But more concerning than those numbers is that Darvish has walked seven hitters in 15 innings, or 4.2 per nine. That’s well above his career average. It’s also led to a supremely high pitch count. Despite never going longer than six innings and not even getting through five in two of his first three starts, Darvish is averaging over 100 pitches a game.
Make no mistake Darvish is not the first pitcher to struggle in the early part of a season. But when we look at these struggles and his struggles during the 2017 postseason (namely the World Series), it gets harder to be dismissive.
Avisail Garcia, right fielder, Chicago White Sox
One of the reasons that we were bullish on the White Sox coming into the year was the young talent coming into Chicago. Another reason, though, was the stellar performance of Avisail Garcia in 2017. He really broke out, hitting .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs.
The 2017 All-Star has slumped to a .233/.254/.333 start with only one home run. Now, it’s definitely too early to press the panic button. But it’s worth mentioning that through his first 14 games of 2017, Garcia was hitting .423/.483/.654 with three home runs. A good start definitely contributed to a good year.
Whether Garcia can turn things around remains to be seen. But through the early portion of the year, the White Sox haven’t met our bullish expectations. Garcia’s performance is high on the list of reasons why.
Ryan Zimmerman, first baseman, Washington Nationals
The Nationals have been one of the most intriguing teams to follow on the young season. They’ve gotten some great starts out of several stars, including Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer. Despite that, the team’s record is well below what it should be. The slumping Zimmerman has certainly contributed to the struggles of his team.
In 2017, Zimmerman started the year at a red hot pace. The 2018 season has been a different story. He’s hitting .161/.235/.371 with three home runs. Also, not unlike McCutchen, those numbers are inflated by one game. Without it, Zimmerman would be hitting .121/.203/.207 with only one home run.
Now, the good news is that unlike Cutch, Zimmerman’s one big game came on Wednesday. Perhaps that’s a sign that he’s turning things around. Certainly, getting Zimmerman’s bat to heat up will be one of the keys for the Nationals to start performing to their capabilities.
Edwin Encarnacion, designated hitter, Cleveland Indians
The 2018 season has been a grind for the Indians. The 9-7 record isn’t bad, nor is the fact that Cleveland sits only one-half game out of first place. But the struggle to score runs has been immense. While Encarnacion has four home runs (including a crazy inside the parker), his overall performance at the plate has definitely not met his expectations.
He’s hitting .153/.242/.356 with a .598 OPS. To give you a sense of what kind of drop that is, from 2012-2017, Encarnacion never had an OBP lower than .354, a slugging percentage below .504, or a sub-.881 OPS. Again, he’s done all of this with four home runs, which is roughly the kind of pace we’d expect from him. We just expect more out of the at-bats that don’t result in long balls.
If the Indians are looking to get the offense in the right direction, getting more out of Encarnacion would be a great place to start.
Yasiel Puig, right fielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
A good amount of the Los Angeles offense has struggled in the early portion of the season. Cody Bellinger got out of his slump relatively early. Corey Seager took a little longer, but has played more to his potential recently. Puig, on the other hand, is still looking to get things going.
Puig is hitting .215/.288/.277 with no home runs. As a point of comparison, he was hitting .260/.320/.386 with seven home runs when he was demoted to the Minor Leagues in August of 2016. Now, it may not seem totally fair to compare four months to three weeks. But in the 17 games leading up to that demotion, Puig hit .273/.369/.418 with one home run. So, he’s performing at a level well below what he was at the low point of his career. It’s also worth noting that the Los Angeles outfield situation is much deeper now than it was in 2016.
We’re not saying that Puig is on the chopping block to get sent down again. But if he wants to avoid getting there, he should probably turn it around quickly.
Chris Archer, starting pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
Archer will not be looking back on his first four starts of 2018 with a whole lot of fondness. While Archer does have a solid 24 strikeouts in only 20.2 innings, he’s been hit and hit hard, otherwise.
Archer sports a 7.84 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and has allowed four home runs, which works out to about 1.7 per nine innings. Of course, pitcher’s stats can be a bit off kilter in the early weeks of the season. A person can have three strong outings but bad numbers because of one bad appearance. But that hasn’t really done Archer in. He’s only completed six innings once and has no quality starts.
It will take a while for Archer’s numbers to get down to what we expect them to be. But a solid outing or two would go a long way towards moving his season in the right direction.
Lewis Brinson center fielder, Miami Marlins
Miami’s decision to trade Giancarlo Stanton was nothing more than a salary dump. But when the Marlins dealt Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers, it was done to acquire young talent. Brinson was at the top of that list.
Thus far, he’s Brinson has shown the same struggles at the Major League level that he did in his 2017 cameos for Milwaukee. He’s hitting .131/.185/.131 without a home run or extra-base hit of any kind. Another problem is that when he’s gotten on base, he hasn’t done much damage. Brinson has only stolen one bag on the year. No extra-base hits and one steal is certainly notable for a guy who seems to have genuine 20-20 tools.
The Marlins aren’t competing for the playoffs in 2018. As such, the development of the young players will really be the most important part of their season. Brinson tops that list. He may soon find his form. But in the early going, Brinson has not played well.
Marcus Stroman, starting pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
Stroman has all kinds of potential. That potential really came to the forefront 2017 when he posted a 3.09 ERA and finished in the top-10 in American League Cy Young voting. He’s yet to carry that into 2018.
Much like Archer, the strikeout numbers have been nice. Stroman has 16 Ks in 14.2 innings. But also much like Archer, the rest of the numbers haven’t followed suit. He has a 7.98 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. The real culprit has been the walks. Stroman has never had a BB/9 rate worse than 2.8. Through his first three starts, he’s walked 10 hitters in 14.2 innings, which is a 6.1 BB/9 rate.
And really, the walks are what’s most concerning. We could live with Stroman getting hit hard. That happens in the early part of the year. But a pitcher struggling to even get the ball over the plate is more troubling, especially when we’re talking about someone who’s been a control pitcher. To get things going in the right direction, Stroman needs to find the strike zone.
Giancarlo Stanton, left fielder, New York Yankees
It was only natural to fall in love with the potential of a lineup that included Stanton and Aaron Judge. But when looking at New York’s potential season, one question always loomed. What would happen if things didn’t go well for Stanton? Yankees’ fans aren’t generally known for their patience, especially when the Bronx Bombers enter the season as a genuine World Series favorite. Well, we’re finding out.
But this isn’t just a matter of New York fans being impatient. Stanton has genuinely struggled. He’s striking out far too often. His home runs are coming too infrequently. And with a .197/.293/.409 slash line, Stanton is not doing much else.
Stanton was not acquired for his defensive prowess. And given that this team took the eventual World Series champs to seven games in the 2017 ALCS, the thought that Stanton could be the final piece of the puzzle was not outrageous. Stanton’s certainly capable of getting hot and 10 days now, we could be having an entirely different discussion. But through the first three weeks of the year, he’s not come close to expectations.