Will Thursday’s semifinal between Aryna Sabalenka and Ons Jabeur essentially decide the 2023 women’s champion at Wimbledon?
That what oddsmakers appear to believe.
The No. 2 seed Sabalenka of Belarus and the No. 6 seed Jabeur of Tunisia will meet in a matchup of styles — Sabalenka’s power against the crafty Jabeur.
Sabalenka is the current +140 favorite by BetMGM to claim her first Wimbledon title after being forced to miss last year’s event when players from Russia and Belarus were not allowed to compete at the All England Club. She has dropped only one set en route to the semifinals and has lost a combined 15 games in her past three matches.
However, she’ll first need to get past Jabeur, who is +225 by the book to claim her first major title this week. She has survived a pair of three-set matches this event, including her upset of reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka is the -160 favorite to continue her roll against Jabeur (+130), over whom she owns a 3-1 career record. That includes a straight-sets win in the 2021 Wimbledon quarterfinals.
“It really feels amazing to be back in the semifinals. I can’t wait to play in my second semifinal at Wimbledon,” said Sabalenka, who lost a three-setter in the 2021 semis to Karolina Pliskova of the Czech Republic.
Sabalenka is now BetMGM’s biggest liability, having drawn 14.0 percent of the women’s title tickets and 28.4 percent of the money since opening at +1400. Jabeur is the book’s third biggest liability, having been backed by 9.3 and 5.5 percent, respectively.
And if Sabalenka wins Thursday’s semifinal, she will be assured of claiming the No. 1 world ranking for the first time in her career.
That position currently belongs to Poland’s Iga Swiatek, who was stunned by unseeded Ukrainian Elina Svitolina in a three-set quarterfinal.
Svitolina, 28, gave birth to her first child last October, only returned to competition three months ago and got into the tournament as a wild card. Still, the grand slam veteran is appearing in her second Wimbledon semifinal (2019) and previously reached as high as No. 3 in the world.
Svitolina and her semifinal opponent, Marketa Vondrousova of the Czech Republic, are each +450 longshots to win the women’s title by BetMGM. Vondrousova, also unseeded, has upset four consecutive seeded players en route to her first Wimbledon semifinal, including No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula in her last match.
“My best result here was second round. It’s amazing. I’m just loving grass now,” Vondrousova said.
Vondrousova did reach the French Open final four years ago and has been ranked as high as 14th in the world. She is the -130 favorite to continue her run against Svitolina (+105), who began the tournament by beating Venus Williams and also survived an epic match against Victoria Azarenka in an 11-9 third-set tiebreaker.
–Field Level Media