We often hear about resisting the urge to reach for overvalued talent during the draft, but teams make the same mistake in free agency. The Las Vegas Raiders will have a projected $57.6 million in cap space for the 2020 offseason. Despite their financial flexibility, they need to spend wisely and should not pursue wide receiver Robby Anderson.
Anderson is one of the most popular free-agent targets within the Raiders fanbase and frequently comes up in discussion. Based on his attributes, a speedy outside vertical threat, he addresses a void in head coach Jon Gruden’s aerial attack.
Last year, quarterback Derek Carr didn’t have a consistent pass-catcher who stretched the field. Tyrell Williams averaged 15.5 yards per catch, but his production faded after scoring in five consecutive contests to open the season.
In December, during an open media conference with local reporters, offensive coordinator Greg Olson confirmed Williams struggled with plantar fasciitis throughout the season:
Other than Williams, the Raiders didn’t have a pass-catcher with at least six receptions average more than 12.7 yards per catch. None of the wideouts eclipsed 651 receiving yards. As a result, we should expect to see new faces at the position next season.
Gruden alluded to bolstering the aerial attack, per Myles Simmons of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
“Yes, we’re going to have to take a good look at it,” Gruden said. “We’ll see what happens. We still have some young guys who are somewhat unproven. But we’ll be looking to strengthen that group, yes.”
In 2019, Robby Anderson averaged 15 yards per catch, which is consistent with his career 14.8-yard mark. He won a race at the 40 Yards of Gold contest, showing off straight-line speed, before pulling out of the competition for unknown reasons. So, why should the Raiders pass on him in March? It’s strictly because of the 26-year’s financial demands and incoming talent.
The free-agent market will dictate Anderson’s price tag, though initially, he’s looking for approximately $14 million annually, per ESPN’s Rich Cimini.
“Anderson is expected to seek a contract that will pay him at least $14 million a year, which would put him in the top 15 among wide receivers,” Cimini wrote. “The Jets are justifiably hesitant to go that high.”
Cimini went on to list reasons why the Jets would balk at Anderson’s reported asking price.
“He’s never had a 1,000-yard season, he’s not a red zone threat and he’s a slow starter,” Cimini wrote.
While we can attribute Robby Anderson’s average but unimpressive numbers to mediocre quarterback play, mostly Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown and Sam Darnold, it’s fair to acknowledge Jamison Crowder was the most productive wideout on the Jets roster in 2019, logging 78 receptions for 833 yards and six touchdowns.
One can argue Anderson wants No. 1 wide receiver money, but he produced at the level of a No. 2 this past year, registering 52 catches for 779 yards and five touchdowns. The Raiders need a lead playmaker at the position—not another secondary option similar to Williams. The Silver and Black should pursue someone who’s going to elevate the group—not merely fit in.
The Jets also need a No. 1 wide receiver. If they’re unwilling to pay Anderson after watching him for four seasons, why should Mayock and Gruden open the checkbook for the fourth-year veteran? If the Raiders sign him, that would seem like a desperate reach for a mid-level wideout.
The 2020 draft will be a good time to address a void at wide receiver.
Here’s a mind-blowing projection. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has nine wideouts listed on his top 50 big board—with six going in the first round of his latest mock draft.
Financially, the Raiders would be better off paying a top wide receiver prospect almost half the amount Anderson reportedly wants on the open market. Prospects like CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Henry Ruggs III and Justin Jefferson will come into the league with high potential as projected top-32 picks.
With an influx of high-end pass-catchers entering the league for 2020, the Raiders have no reason to overpay for a No. 2 wide receiver. That’s not a knock on Robby Anderson, but let’s not forget the NFL is a business. At every turn, general managers want the best bang for their buck or the most return on investments.
At Nos. 12 or 19, the Raiders can select a rookie wideout and see similar or possibly more production out of that player than Anderson.
Just for perspective, rookie fifth-rounder Hunter Renfrow (49-605-4) posted numbers similar to Anderson (52-779-5) this past season and played in three fewer games because of a broken rib and punctured lung. The Jets wideout had 25 more targets (96 to 71).
The Raiders could save about $7 million and maximize their resources with a decision to choose a wide receiver in the first round of the 2020 draft over Anderson in free agency. Keep in mind, defensive end Clelin Ferrell, the team’s top first-rounder from the 2019 draft, had a $7.13 million cap hit in his first season.
General manager Mike Mayock and Gruden can bolster the wide receiver corps without overpaying for Anderson or pushing all their chips to the middle of the draft table.
Along with Anderson, notable names like Emmanuel Sanders, Demarcus Robinson and Randall Cobb will hit the open market. Don’t forget a sleeper option like Rashard Higgins, who was highlighted in a previous breakdown of potential free-agent targets.
Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor spoke about the intention to retain A.J. Green, per Geoff Hobson.
“Oh, absolutely. He’s a big priority for us,” Taylor said. “Things will have to work out over the course of the spring, but we certainly plan on A.J. being in the fold next year. He’s back healthy and we know that’s a huge weapon that will certainly benefit us.”
Don’t expect Amari Cooper to rejoin the Raiders in Vegas after he admitted to being unhappy during his stint with the Silver and Black.
As primarily a slot receiver who would take away from Renfrow’s targets on the inside, Cobb isn’t the best fit for a team in need of an outside threat. Sanders and Robinson would be intriguing options. Both spent a fair amount of time playing against the Raiders as AFC West foes.
Sanders takes a backseat to the San Francisco 49ers’ second-ranked ground attack, but he’s a veteran with reliable hands, logging catch rates at 68 percent or higher over the last two seasons, which includes 19 games with the Denver Broncos.
The Raiders should remember Robinson. The Kansas City Chiefs wideout torched defensive coordinator Paul Guenther’s secondary, hauling in all six of his targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns.
At 6’1″, 203 pounds, Robinson has some vertical speed and big-play ability. He’s likely on the way out because of rookie second-rounder Mecole Hardman’s ascension, but the 25-year-old has room to grow and would serve as a solid asset for depth.
Assuming Green re-signs with the Bengals and Cooper isn’t interested in a Raiders return, free agency doesn’t offer alternative No. 1 options at wide receiver. The talent pool provides a lot of No. 2 and No. 3 options.
The Raiders should use free agency to add a veteran wide receiver on a modest deal and spend big dollars to improve their defense, which has holes on every level.
Equipped with five picks within the top 91 selections in April, the Raiders have the resources to bolster and double-dip at wide receiver and still pick up a linebacker, safety and defensive lineman during the draft.
Again, Robby Anderson is a solid wideout, but at a reported $14 million price tag, the Raiders can spend their money in a more cost-effective fashion and still address their offensive need early in the draft. Mayock and Gruden need to play 3D chess—not one-dimensional checkers as they continue to fill out the roster.