Last week, the math got really simple for Sammy Smith, in that only a victory at Martinsville Speedway would see him through to the Xfinity Series championship race next weekend at Phoenix Raceway.
On Friday night, he and the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 team made their mission somewhat easier, scoring the pole in advance of 250 laps around the venerable Virginia short track on Saturday (3:30 but there is a great deal of desperation behind him.
Playoff grid (starting position)
Sam Mayer Advanced (P17)
John Hunter Nemechek +44 (P5)
Cole Custer +3 (P3)
Austin Hill +3 (P9)
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Justin Allgaier -3 (P2)
Sammy Smith -49 (P1)
Chandler Smith -54 (P7)
Sheldon Creed -65 (P8)
Must win contenders
In plain terms, in addition to Sammy Smith, Chandler Smith and Sheldon Creed are in the exact same boat. There is no outcome other than winning the race on Saturday in which they advance into the championship race.
It’s not an enviable position to be in, but Sammy Smith will tell you, that it does make things awfully uncomplicated.
“I think there is really no strategy for us,” Smith said. “We just have to go out and win. I feel like that is the biggest thing for us. I feel like we can do that. I feel like we need to do whatever it takes.”
He says there is no other track he would rather face this scenario than Martinsville, where he has two other Xfinity starts and two starts in a Late Model Stock Car.
“I feel like practice was good, qualifying was good. Just have to go execute tomorrow.”
There wasn’t a lot of people who could say that about their day on Friday. The NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour laid down a great deal of incompatible rubber on the track on Thursday night and everyone unloaded really ill.
Chandler Smith and crew chief Bruce Schlicker spent an hour after qualifying just sitting on the pit road wall working through a game plan for Saturday.
“There was a lot to be said about the way the rubber reacted to, at least, my car and the cars on the RCR campus, compared to what it was like in the spring,” Smith said. “But we learned a lot for what will happen once the rubber does go down.
“It was a big struggle for me in that race when the rubber laid down, and I got super super tight and the Gibbs cars were able to wrap the bottom really well.”
That’s their concern for tomorrow, that Sammy Smith will do what all of the Gibbs cars did in the spring, and drive away on the bottom
Chandler Smith has mixed opinions about being in this spot. It’s uncomplicated, but gosh, he wishes it wasn’t this way.
“Hindsight 20/20, you want to be in a better spot,” he said. “If someone has a bad day, you can point your way in and capitalize. It’s Martinsville, people might get wrecked and run through, and I might be doing some of that myself. Everything is on the table.”
The points battle
Cole Custer, Austin Hill and Justin Allgaier will be points racing on Saturday but even then, it’s complicated, because if Smith, Smith or Sheldon Creed win the race, it will eliminate two of the three instead of just one.
“This race is unique for us because we could point our way in or we could win our way in,” Allgaier said. “Both are within reach but there are some incredible teams in this battle with us.
“The bottom three are must-win, and me three points out, if I could leap frog (Hill and Custer), now it doesn’t matter. If I leap frog one and there isn’t a new winner, we’re in. If I leap frog one and there is a new winner, I’m out.
“There are a lot of different paths to the same goal, but with that being said, I would love to go out there and sweep all three stages and make it really simple.”
Custer says he is treating Saturday as a must-win race for that reason, even if he will take the green flag above the cutline.
“That’s almost, really, how you have to think about it in the back of your mind,” Custer said. “You can get so caught up in the pressure of it, and all the different scenarios, when you just have to go perform and that will take care of itself.”
Prime conditions
In addition to all the playoff drama, Martinsville Speedway is also one of the absolute best tracks for the Xfinity Series and the weather couldn’t be any better for the race. It will be sunny with 80 degree temperatures, meaning the track will get wide and slick.
That will create passing and a wider track for the playoff combatants to decide the championship race on.
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.