The Phoenix Suns are, for all intents and purposes, out of the Western Conference playoff race. A four-game losing streak has them 4.5 games behind Oklahoma City for the eighth seed, and two games behind ninth-place New Orleans. While the season has been more good than bad for the Suns, it’s still a disappointing result for a team that felt cheated out of a playoff spot last year following a surprising 48-win campaign.
General manager Ryan McDonough has done a good job compiling a talented young roster, and head coach Jeff Hornacek has turned that talent into genuine NBA production. Despite being forced into taking a step back at the trade deadline with the trade of guard Goran Dragic, the Suns remain in great shape. So what happens next?
A Solid Core is in Place
Phoenix doesn’t have a superstar on their roster, but they have plenty of talent. Here’s the core with their ages:
Eric Bledsoe, guard, 25
Brandon Knight, guard, 23
Markieff and Marcus Morris, forwards, 25
Alex Len, center, 21
TJ Warren, forward, 21
On the periphery, they also have guard Archie Goodwin (20) and forward Brandan Wright (27).
Bledsoe, Knight and Markieff Morris have all proven to be capable starters, while Len and Warren both have that kind of ability. Marcus is, at worst, an effective rotation player.
Re-signing Brandon Knight and Brandan Wright
Knight was brought in at the trade deadline to replace the departing Goran Dragic in the Suns’ backcourt. Although he’s struggled thus far in Phoenix, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be a long-term complement to Eric Bledsoe. Now they have to pay him.
As a restricted free agent in July, Knight will likely command between $12-$15 million a year on the open market, which is close to a max contract on a four-year deal. That may seem like a lot for a combo guard averaging 17 points and just over five assists per game, but that’s the going rate for 23-year-old starters. Barring a dramatic sign-and-trade offer, there’s very little chance the Suns don’t match any offer for Knight.
Wright was another mid-season acquisition, brought in from Boston for what will most likely end up being two second round draft picks from Minnesota. While he doesn’t fill up the box score, Wright’s a fantastic fit as a long, mobile third big. His advanced stats tend to far surpass his point and rebound totals, and he’s generally a pain in the neck on defense.
Wright is coming off of a two-year, $10 million contract, and, at 27, could be looking at his best shot at a big contract. If the Suns can lock-in Wright at less than $8-9 million a season, they should jump at the opportunity.
The Cap
Keeping Knight and Wright would put Phoenix right up against the salary cap next season. Factoring in the contracts of Bledsoe and Markieff and Marcus Morris, the Suns would have between $45-50 million per year and rising tied up in five players, none of whom are superstars. That used to be a recipe for disaster, but with the cap jumping significantly in 2016, the Suns’ financial situation becomes their biggest strength.
As a lure in free agency, Phoenix can’t compete with Miami or Los Angeles. What the Suns can now offer, however, is a deep roster filled with versatile players entering their prime. A star can go to Phoenix and expect to compete for a Championship immediately.
Player Development
While Bledsoe and the Morris twins continue to improve at a steady clip, the Suns hope to see major gains from their two most recent lottery picks.
Coming off of an in injury plagued rookie season, center Alex Len has shown major progress in his second year, posting respectable per-minute numbers for a 21-year old. Not only has Len flashed a varied skill-set on offense, he’s also been a plus defender with room to grow. He has the potential to be a very good (but not great) two-way center.
Rookie forward TJ Warren might fill Phoenix’s other glaring hole. The Suns have used a combination of PJ Tucker and Marcus Morris at small forward, but neither is a well-rounded player. Warren has shown a deft scoring touch since being given time in the rotation following the All-Star break, and could prove to be the consistent half-court scorer the Suns are lacking. He’ll need to add range on his jumper, though.
The Draft and Other Assets
Phoenix holds the draft rights to Serbian guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (the 27th overall selection last year), plus three future first-round picks: Cleveland’s in 2016 (protected 1-10), and Miami’s in 2017 (protected 1-7) and 2021 (unprotected).
This season, barring lottery magic, the Suns will be picking in the late lottery. A lot will change between now and June, but McDonough should be in position to add a talented big to bolster the Suns’ frontcourt in the event of Wright’s departure.
Overall Outlook
Despite taking a step back this season, Phoenix remains in great shape. It has a scary combination of talent, upside, skill and versatility, and they control the rights to all six of its core players through at least 2019. What the Suns miss is a true superstar to get them over the top, and they have cap space and draft picks to acquire that player through free agency or trade.
Making the playoffs in 2015 might be another frustrating exercise in futility, but the Suns will be in prime position to make major noise in 2016.
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